Monday, December 22, 2008

Morning Update 12/22

Good Morning,

From now until the New Year, trading volume will obviously be light and there will be holiday closures and half sessions. Expect fewer updates unless conditions warrant.

With about a half hour prior to the open the DOW is down 40 points and the SPX is down 4.

No significant economic data today, but tomorrow will come final GDP, Redbook, Store Sales, Consumer Sentiment, New Home Sales, and Existing Home Sales. That’s an unusual amount for one day. Wednesday brings Purchase Applications, Durable Goods Orders, Jobless Claims, and the Petroleum Report. The markets are closed on Thursday, Christmas Day, and it looks like 2:00 PM Eastern closes on Wednesday and Friday.

Toyota forecast its first full year loss in the 71 year history of the company.

I note that the middle/longer end of the bond market is moving down in price slightly this morning, gold is higher, the dollar is down slightly, and otherwise the technical picture is pretty much as described in Friday’s End of Day report.

Remember that we just triggered a sell signal on the daily stochastic but we have the buy signal on the weekly. In the short time frames we are oversold on the 10 and 30 minute stochastic, thus I would expect prices to be supported in the near term.

The VIX has been coming down and perhaps that will continue with some lower volatility sessions. That’s a good thing as it will make option prices come down.

Looks like we’re only down 20 on the DOW now…

Have a good day, it’s a white blanket of snow here, the most I’ve seen in years for the Northwest!