Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Update Heading into the Close

Cross currents, channels inside of channels… triangles that end in wedges, oh my!

As you can see from the 10 minute SPX chart below, we are in that same blue channel, but the time relationship with wave ‘a’ is now definitely gone. You can see that we produced a smaller bearish channel within that larger channel and are swinging up and down, but making lower highs.

It looks to me like the short term stochastic is going to finish in middle ground, but possibly overbought on the 10 minute timescale and closer to oversold on the 60 minute time scale.

Right now the DOW is up only 30 points. If it closes here it will have “wound the spring” which may produce a small movement on the McClelland Oscillator and may result in a large movement in the next couple of days – but that does not tell us direction.

This next chart is the DOW 10 minute. Same channels, the smaller one inside the larger is bearish and is targeting about the 8,450 area which coincides with that fat rusty red line. But then again, the larger channel is bullish looking and would take us considerably higher.

Place ‘yer bets! Wish I could be more helpful, all I can say here is I’m keeping it small or not at all. Cross currents and chop.

I think that VIX chart looks ominous, though, unless it breaks beneath the bottom of that triangle.