Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Update - short, medium, long term...

It looks like we got the gap fill and we almost hit 890, bouncing off of 892. I took a small long position at 895, this is a one or two day play at most. I think we need some kind of positive impetus to break higher and that may or may not come.

So, people reading my blog seem to be unclear where I stand in the medium/short term. I have repeatedly said “Cross currents,” and that I think it's a mixed picture at this time. My best guess is that I do think we have entered wave ‘B’ up/sideways which is the eye of the hurricane. We experienced wave A down, now wave B up/sideways, then comes wave C down. Wave C is the destructive wave. It’s the one that will usher in real change. That’s why I’m writing my “Cut the Crap” article series, to plant the seeds for positive change at the bottom of wave C. What I see happening is that the central bankers will come in and DICTATE to us how the new and “improved” system will work! I say, NO. We, the people, need to come up with something better and tell the central bankers how it’s going to be! Brash, I know, but I do not want a world run by them, and neither will you.

Now, in the short term I see that we are in wave A up of an A-B-C move that will make up the larger wave B up/sideways. Within that wave A up, there is a smaller a-b-c and we are making wave ‘c’ now which I believe will reach about the 940/950 area within the next couple of days. I make that time frame estimate based on the length of wave ‘a’.

That a-b-c will make up the larger wave A, then we start on wave B down. But, after wave B down, then we have wave C up that should take us into the 1,000 plus range on the S&P. That’s what I’m thinking right now.

Of course, anything could happen and we could just head right on down here. I don’t think so, but I don’t eliminate that as a possibility and thus I am playing small. Does that make it clear?

Now, we have fresh buy signals on the weekly charts and guess what? We just produced a sell signal on my DOW daily stochastic. This was also produced on the DIA and on the transports. So, it could be that we run out of rally steam right here for the short run (possible). See charts below:

So, cross currents are what I see. Very short term up (next couple of days), then a correction, then more up for the medium term, then more, much more down in the longer term. Hope that helps make it clear.