Monday, December 8, 2008


So far we have gapped up (gap still open), come down a little and then run higher. I note that the RUT is lagging this morning and may be forming a small megaphone top. The SPX has some resistance at the 917 level to get over, and the DOW, which is now up 330 points has broken above key resistance just above 8,900.

On the DOW 30 minute chart below, note the peak on 11/14, we just exceeded that, but again have yet to on the SPX.

I want to point out a time relationship and talk about symmetry… Note that the move up from 11/21 rose for 4 trading sessions, then moved down for 4 trading sessions, now should go up for ____ trading sessions? Symmetry says 4, that means higher through Thursday is likely. This is a classic a-b-c type of move. Note how steep the rise off the 11/21 low was. Note that the rise off Friday’s low is now just as steep. Symmetry baby! Now, also note that wave ‘a’ advanced about 1,350 points. If we add 1,350 points to the 12/5 low, we come up with a symmetrical target of about 9,460! (note, though, that the slow stochastic is approaching overbought with the fast).

Now let’s zoom out on a 3 month daily chart and see what is at 9,460… Bingo, there is the top of that old triangle (blue line). The MATH of symmetry often points to where it’s heading. Note that we are just now poking through the 50 day moving average on the DOW. We have not been above it since back in September. Going above it is further confirmation that we have entered the larger B wave up.

Keep in mind that this is just technical forecasting, and that news can often trump technicals in the short run.