Friday, January 9, 2009

Morning Update 1/9/2009

Good Morning,

Well, I said earlier in the week that today’s report would be “buy the news,” and that’s exactly what just happened.

Futures, however, were down pretty heavily last night and only managed to make it back to about level so far.

The unemployment rate of 7.2% was pretty ugly while the headline number of 524,000 was inline with expectations, but less than some of the whisper numbers on the street. The BLS’s performance is just plain insulting. They revised their October number upwards by 32%! How bad would this month’s number be with the same revision? Ugly. Our government reports are just embarrassing, are near worthless, and are definitely NOT comparable to figures from the past. Perhaps when we reach the bottom of wave ‘C’, we’ll give some thought to creating some honest and un-manipulated data.

I think this may be a good short opportunity in here somewhere today once the short term oscillators work their way a little higher. Keep your eye on the 60 minute stochastic, right now it’s just coming out of oversold, but remember that it can remain oversold too. The daily stochastic is on a sell and has a way to go.

Here’s my chart of the day… it’s TLT on the 10 day timeframe and it is clearly breaking down out of a wedge. I tried to get short TLT yesterday, but had computer problems and didn’t get the darn thing. I’ll get it this morning, though, as I’m beginning to think more and more that we are witnessing the beginning of the bond market unwind.

If you have a lot of money parked in bonds, you may want to consider temporarily keeping it in some sort of an FDIC or SPIC insured cash account or money market while this move is ongoing. Make sure you stay under their limits and remember that the FDIC temporarily rose their per account limit to 250K.

I’ll keep the updates coming, have a good day,


LOL! The market opened before I could post this and here’s a chart showing how long the BLS pump lasted… Not long! The DOW is currently off 50 points…