Monday, January 5, 2009


Okay, just a couple of things to point out here…

First, looking at today’s action this looks more like a wave 4’s sideways action. Below is my 5 minute DOW chart, and you can see that I have re-labeled the high point as the top of wave 3 and today’s action as wave 4. If that’s correct, we are just starting wave 5 up, or may produce more sideways action until it's ready to run.

I’m not convinced yet that this is correct, but I have exited my short position and am neutral. I really don’t want to try to play a 5th wave long here, I’d rather wait for it to end and catch ‘b’ short, then flip and catch the next long entry point after that.

The Daily charts are starting to look overbought as all the indices now have fast stochastic indicators way high in the overbought territory. Note on this SPX daily chart that the stochastic is overbought, it is above the upper Bollinger, and if it were to close here is what looks like a hammer (I won’t get excited about that unless it does close like that). I also note that the SPX just exceeded its previous high.

The 60 minute stochastic is still overbought as it has been for quite some time.