Friday, January 9, 2009

Update – HOG

Boy, did I ever nail this pig! Down another 10.3% already this morning. That’s why I kept the remaining 1/3 of my position. Could I have done better by holding all of it? Of course, but it’s all about money management and risk.

Here’s a chart showing the daily on the left and the 5 minute chart on the right. This move has shaved nearly 20% off HOG’s value in the past 3 days. That’s a tremendous move and play. Note that we are about to touch the 100% retrace of the last move up. It will probably find support in here. I may take a little bit more profit here, and maybe just keep a few option contracts open just for fun, but I do not want to let that profit disappear if the market were to ramp. It’s better at this point to take the capital and find the next target, that’s my thinking, that was too much of a move too fast and I don’t want to let it slip away.

I hope you had fun with that play, I did, that’s fun when they work out so well. I may revisit this and will be watching to see if it bounces here off support or gets through it. If the market is going to move down significantly, then HOG will likely continue to go out with the tide.

Ride on,