Friday, January 2, 2009

Update

You can see that the rally has continued defying the short term oscillators. The DOW is currently up nearly 200 points.

Here’s the way the math works on this current leg up, you can follow along on this 5 day 5 minute chart of the DOW… wave 1 ran about 270 points up, then retreated in wave 2. Wave 3 ran from about 8,560 to 8,830, again almost exactly 270 points, then wave 4 was more of a sideways movement that ended at 8,761. If wave 5 is the equal of 1 and 3, it should terminate in the 9,030 area. Wave 5, however, can terminate early or it can extend (which would surprise me here).



Below is the 20 day, 20 minute chart of the SPX. Note deeply overbought indicators and that is has overthrown the dark blue downtrend line. We clearly broke above the recent tops at the 918 level.



Bonds are continuing to decline as is the VIX which is still down about 6% on the day. The XLF is not advancing commensurate with the rally, nor is the RUT, however the NDX is leading. Gold is down, but USO is up nearly 6%.

BTW, the next pivot point on the S&P is at 935...