Thursday, January 8, 2009


Just a quick note that the markets moved lower but failed to gather momentum on the down side. The DOW threw a pin through its 50 dma and touched its 61.8 retrace line but the S&P failed to touch either during trading hours and have now bounced upwards as Obama is speaking. Even though he doesn't get the math, the market seems to react positively when he speaks - so far... they'll get it sooner or later.

This is a critical area, I won’t touch it myself unless the 50dma’s fall. The short term oscillators just produced buy signals, so we may have to chop around for awhile before making another run at the 50dma if that’s what we’re going to do. It may not be, it could be that we move higher, so I am cautious in both directions while we’re in this range. Below is a one month daily of the DOW, you can see how it pinned the 50dma:

The XLF has moved a little higher and is now in positive territory while at the same time the RUT is leading and in positive territory as well. So, the move does not look impulsive on the down side, but I don’t see anything to cheer about on the long side either. Sorry, the market not collapsing on bad news does not convince me to throw my money at it, thinking like that is extremely dangerous from my perspective.

Also positive here is that the VIX did not maintain its advance and is now slightly negative on the day.

HOG made a nice move lower this morning but has bounced also. I only hold 1/3 of my original position and plan on holding it for a few days to see if we get follow through on the down side .

Overall sitting on my hands here and being patient while I work on a couple of articles. Look for them soon.