Monday, January 12, 2009


Very heavy market, the DOW is currently off 120 points (1.3%) and the S&P is off more than 2% now as is the NDX.

The S&P has now broken lower out of another little flag, the next support level is about 869/870, but the target on the flag break is more like 850 which would be a disaster and would throw the short term possibility of being in ‘c’ up into question. It would, however, open the door to this being wave ‘b’ and wave ‘c’ up still has yet to begin, wave ‘a’ ending on January 6th? This is all problematic because if that’s the case then we are in a long duration wave ‘B’ up/sideways. The other possibility is that we’re in wave 4 and are going to just head right on down. I have less and less money riding short now as the possibility of a bounce in here is still good with indicators still oversold.

Bonds reversed and are higher on the day across the board.

The VIX now elevated to 45, up 5.25% now. I have resistance at 46, if the VIX breaks that level, that’s not good for the bulls.

IYR has really broken down and is off more than 5%, all the REITS getting hammered.