Friday, February 27, 2009

Fourth Quarter GDP Revised to -6.2%...

This is the worst report in 26 years, and much worse than the “experts” were expecting. Much of the decline was due to exports. What’s been giving us that clue? How about the Transports? The Baltic Dry and DOW Transport index have been shouting COLLAPSE. Now we’re seeing it. That’s what I have meant by saying the Transports are a leading indicator.

GDP slides 6.2% on export slowdown

A revised reading on fourth-quarter gross domestic product was its worst in 26 years.

NEW YORK ( -- The nation's economic slide during the last three months of 2008 was even sharper than previously estimated, with the broadest gauge of economic activity suffering its worst decline in 26 years.

Gross domestic product, which measures the output of goods and services produced in the United States, fell at an annual rate of 6.2% in the fourth quarter, adjusted for inflation, according to a preliminary report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

The decline was worse than the 3.8% drop that the BEA reported in last month's "advance" reading on fourth-quarter GDP. It was also the largest drop in GDP since the first quarter of 1982, when the economy suffered a 6.4% decline.

Economists had been expecting a 5.4% contraction, according to a survey conducted by

In the third quarter, real GDP decreased 0.5%.
According to Econoday:

The initial estimate for fourth quarter GDP showed the recession is worsening with a sizeable 3.8 percent decline, following a 0.5 percent contraction the prior quarter. The economic decline was spread throughout the economy. The all important consumer spending component dropped 3.5 percent annualized. We also saw sharp declines in residential investment and business investment in equipment & software. Nonresidential structures investment dipped slightly and even exports declined. We likely will see a downward revision to the fourth quarter. But pay specific attention to final sales-which indicate how strong demand is. Markets did not pay much attention to it, but final sales fell an annualized 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter. How this figure winds up will play a key role in how first quarter growth ends up.

Don't worry, Mr. Obama, Mr. Bernanke, & Mr. Geithner... sure, spending more money we don't have will make it all better. Keep on believing, my wayward sons...

Kansas - Carry On Wayward Son: