Thursday, February 19, 2009

Leading Indicators/ Hurting on the Streets of Philadelphia…

Index of leading indicators:

Came in at .4% which was at the top of estimates, BUT…
From Econoday:
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The Conference Board's index of leading indicators rose 0.3 percent in December - largely on a surge in the money supply. But without money supply, indications were very negative with the report warning that the results point to "intense recession" through the spring. Without the money supply contribution, the leading index would have fallen 0.7 percent.

Leading indicators Consensus Forecast for January 09: 0.0 percent (flat)
Range: -0.5 to +0.4 percent
Surging money supply is the only thing propping up the leading indicators… well at least they’re doing something, right?

Meanwhile, down on the streets of Philadelphia, things aren’t looking too rosy… it came in with a huge miss at -41.3! The previous reading was “only” -24.3… -41 is horrific.
The general business conditions component of the Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey index continued to contract in January - but not as quickly as in the prior month. The Philadelphia Fed's January index for general business conditions came in at minus 24.3, up moderately from minus 36.1 in December. Both new orders and shipments contracted but at slower rates than in December.

Philadelphia Fed survey Consensus Forecast for February 09: -26.0
Range: -34.0 to -21.4

Having anything positive to say about that number is just out of line. Not as fast a fall as in December? Riiight. People just feel compelled to find something positive to say. You may think I’m just looking for something negative to say, but hey, someone has to balance the universe – LOL! It’s not funny when people are hurting down on the streets of Philadelphia!

Bruce Springsteen – Streets of Philadelpia:

[Of course, you guys know this index is from the Philly Fed and has nothing to do w/Philadelphia, right? Still, it’s a good song, and I look for any opportunity to play it!]