Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Market update/ Russian Markets Closed – Lock limit down…

Both key Russian exchanges were closed overnight as their markets triggered locks. Eastern Europe is under severe pressure and that’s pressuring banks in Western Europe. Moody’s downgraded most European banks today over concerns about Eastern Europe as the Western banks have massive loans outstanding there in addition to all the problems our own banks have.

Google was downgraded this morning, and Trump Entertainment filed for bankruptcy, just a few days after the Donald bailed out.

Hate to be the bearer of really bad new, but those pennants now look broken. The DOW was broken last week, but this is pretty convincing on the S&P. Doesn’t mean we can’t come back up and test them, we certainly can. But now the pennant targets are in play. No, it won’t get there in a straight line, and it will take some time.

Here’s a 3 month chart of the DOW. We are close to taking out the November low. If we do, a new DOW Theory sell signal will be issued as the Transports have already broken down. Note on this chart that Green line… that is the 20 year uptrend line that has held everything up so far. As you can see, not today:



The SPX, as you can see, has broken its red line pennant bottom. We’re pushing the Bollinger bands down again.



The NDX just broke its rising wedge pattern and has room to go prior to the lower Bollinger.



Oil is way down today, and gold is taking off on world turmoil and massive global money printing. Definitely flight to safety trade is on today.

If you were long anything but gold this weekend, I'll bet your feeling a little like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T5kMiYrWsXY
Bon Jovi & Bob Geldof - I don't like Mondays


Well, at least it FEELS like a Monday, especially if you were long...