Thursday, February 19, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 2/19

Good Morning,

Several analysts beat around the manipulation bush about the closes the past two days, but I haven’t heard anyone with the nads to just come out and say it. YES, those closes on the DOW were manipulated. There. If you don’t believe that people would do that – well, wake up and grow up.

Desperate times bring desperate actions. Some of those actions are done “with a good heart.” People may think they are helping to “save” America, but in fact all the intervention is stifling real growth and productivity FRUSTRATING an entire generation of investors. Yes, there are real investors and innovators just wanting to get to work to invest long term and to help build a healthy and prosperous America. They simply cannot do it yet. Markets are artificially propped up. Old lumbering industry is being supported artificially and has not been allowed to fail. Young, innovative companies that could otherwise use the money do not have room and must compete for scarce investment dollars. The path we are on is not good – interfering in the markets will lead to much suffering, much more than would have happened naturally.

This morning the weekly unemployment numbers came in level with last week on the headline number, but continuing claims rose to another record just below 5 million…
Jobless claims hold at a high level

The number of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits holds at 627,000. Continuing claims set a record.

By Catherine Clifford, staff writer

NEW YORK ( -- The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits was unchanged last week, remaining near a 26-year high, according to a government report released Thursday.

The number of initial jobless claims was 627,000 in the week ended Feb. 14, according to the Labor Department. That was unchanged from the revised level of the previous week.
Economists polled by were expecting 620,000 claims for the most recent week.

The 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims was 619,000, an increase of 10,500 from a revised 608,500 in the previous week.

Continuing claims: The number of workers receiving unemployment checks for one week or more rose to a record 4,987,000 in the week ended Feb. 7, the most recent data available. That tops the previous week's revised level of 4,817,000.

The Labor Department has been keeping records since 1967.

The 4-week moving average for continuing claims was 4,839,500, an increase of 92,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,747,000.
The PPI came in higher than expected at .8%, when .3% was expected. Most of that rise can be attributed to gasoline rising 15% in January. The “core” rose .4%. This is important data (manipulated though it might be) because it shows if nothing else a slight let up in deflationary forces during the month of January. Of course when you look inside the report, you find that food and some other categories were down. One month also does not make a trend and remember that the stock market and other asset prices declined in a large way during the month.

Leading indicators and the Philly Fed Survey come out in a few minutes.

The market just opened higher, but is still well inside of its down trending channel. The market will eventually go were it belongs – that destination is lower than here. P/E ratios are still too high, earnings are continuing to fall, and the debt still has not been cleared.

Still a lot of oversold indications, the short term stochs have quite a bit of room on the upside, the 30 minute is only a little more than half way up, and the 60 minute slow is just coming out of oversold. I’d really like to see up reach the top of the channel and get those indicators oversold before putting more troops into battle as Doc would say.

Have a great day and best to your trades,


PS – in regards to the markets and the people behind them… SAME AS IT EVER WAS!

Talking Heads – Once in a Lifetime (Same as it ever was!):