Thursday, February 26, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 2/26

Good Morning,

Futures are up this morning, bonds are down.

AIG is reportedly working on a plan that would break the company up and to sell assets, but evidently that plan is running into problems this morning. Still, the stock rose a lot in percentage terms last night. At this point I would have to assume that any attempt to do break the company up would be yet another company playing the shell game to hide good assets in one company and to push the crap off to be abandoned later. The shell game is completely illegal and yet our government has not stepped in to stop the nonsense at all, and in fact have been promoting and sponsoring it. This type of activity is reprehensible; it deprives creditors and employees from getting to the good assets for any type of recourse. This is why we have bankruptcy laws so that supposedly an adult can get in and distribute what’s left. Frankly, this should make Americans furious as we have pumped billions into AIG. Is there anyone looking after our interests? If so, they better get on it.

Let’s run down the rest of the headlines, I’ll post an employment update later:

• Jobless claims jump to 26 year high, continuing claims rise to another record, first time ever above 5 million. 667,000 filed last week, economists were predicting a drop to 625,000.

• GM lost 9.6 billion unbelievable dollars in the 4th quarter… did I mention unbelievable?

• Obama’s budget sees $1.75 trillion deficit for this year. Not that I like the GDP number, but it’s 12.3%. Here’s a better comparison… Total tax receipts last year totaled $2.7 trillion… that puts the $1.75 trillion at 65% of income!! And that’s non-GAAP accounting, not including future liabilities! Oh, there’s $750 billion in there to help the banks… who wrote that budget? A banker? YES! Who do you think is giving Obama all this wonderful economic advice? WAKE UP AMERICA!

• Oh, Citi is close to announcing a deal w/.gov… again. I can’t wait. It’s not nationalizing. Oh yeah, we’ll MAKE money on that deal.

• Durable goods orders dropped 5.2%, twice as much as expected. This was the sixth consecutive month of declines.

New home sales data comes out soon.

Right now I show us on the edge of the triangle, just beneath yesterday’s high, and just outside of the down channel. I will respect a break of the triangle as it would be the second time if it occurs.

There was a small change in the McClelland Oscillator yesterday which means a large movement in price should come today or tomorrow, direction not indicated by that reading.

The stochastic oscillators are near overbought on the 30 and 60 minute timeframes providing room to move higher, but there’s much more room lower.

Although I have the DOW and S&P peaking out of the top of the triangle now, the RUT, NDX, and Transports are still well inside. Bonds are down again…

Have a good day,