Thursday, February 5, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 2/5

Good Morning,

Futures are down this morning with that Gravestone doji on the NDX being prescient so far as the NDX is down more than 20 points on a poor outlook from Cisco, while the DOW and S&P futures were trying to stay even but folded on the unemployment numbers. The XLF is down, well below $9…

Weekly jobless claims rose to a 26 year high, coming in at 626,000, up 35,000 from the week before. This is a very large number for the week, to say the least. Tomorrow, the monthly employment numbers are released and that’s sure to be a market mover one way or the other. My caveat, as always, with these numbers is that they are not fully believable as they are open to manipulations of all types.

The Bank of England cut rates by .5% to get them to 1%. That helped to strengthen our dollar and the Yen, which will apply further pressure to equities.

With ramping unemployment, worker productivity is increasing, rising 3.2% in the fourth quarter. Any wonder why?

Can’t tell you how disappointed I am to learn that Obama is going to let all the current execs skate on his salary cap. Goes to show you who owns and runs the world. Frankly, I was very surprised he took such a bold step as to do something not in the central banks favor, as that’s a great way to wind up wearing cement boots. Evidently he, or his administration, must have gotten “straightened out” yesterday evening. How disappointing.

Yesterday produced a small change in the McClelland Oscillator, so we should expect a large movement today or tomorrow (direction unknown). The short term oscillators are starting to get a little oversold, so be a little careful. I would not be surprised by a lower start, but a ramping finish. It would seem that people are actually still believing that the administration can “do something” to stem the flow, and are all giddy about the coming “big bang” announcement supposedly next week. Will that be a rocket ride or a sell the news event? I don’t know, and wouldn’t bet money on it one way or the other. I would think that a short term launch would be possible only if they surprised the market with something that sounds good in the short run, but will be, I’m sure, disastrous in the long run.

Tomorrow’s unemployment numbers will be important, make sure you are positioned thoughtfully at the close. That’s about all I have, I’ll let Springsteen express the rest for me:

Tom Petty – Breakdown: