Friday, February 6, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 2/6

Good Morning,

Well, sometimes it takes a while to digest the data. Futures ramped a little on this “non-end-of-the-world” employment report, but like the old adage goes, it’s a recession when your neighbor looses their job, it’s a depression when you lose yours. The trend in unemployment is undeniably up at a dramatic rate, and when we cut through the bull of seasonal adjustments and “birth/ death model” adjustments, we find a 15.4% unemployment number which is much closer to the way the data used to be reported. Thus, keep in mind that it is NOT VALID to compare the 7.6% number to depression era data. I don’t know what you want to call the threshold for depression, but I believe we are already there.

Okay, remember that the 30 and 60 minute oscillators are overbought and thus I would expect pressure to be exerted on the downside at some point this morning. Futures are already fading from their mini-pump.

Bonds are down again, it’s interesting that on the last FOMC announcement and now on this employment report that it has been the bond market reacting dramatically. There’s a message in there, do you hear it Mr. Bernanke?

Appreciate the good participation on the thread yesterday, keep your good input coming. Here’s a current chart of the futures just prior to the open:

Good luck to your day,