Wednesday, March 25, 2009

End of day 3/25

Oh how this kind of day makes me not only comfortably numb, but it makes me want to just jump on my bike and head out into the country to get away…

Sure was a nice save after the market fell apart on news of a weak 5 year bond auction that follows on the heals of a failed U.K. auction. If people are beginning to wake up to the fact that selling all our debts is going to be difficult then they are FINALLY getting on the right line of thinking. They should be scared. This is not a problem for our grandkids, it’s here and it’s now, you are somebody’s grandkid.

Hopefully your kids will have a job in the future, IBM just announced they are cutting another 5,000 U.S. jobs that will be moved to India. Congratulations to those who support a one world agenda, you may have outsourced yourself. And look at the jobs that leave. They are not pizza delivery jobs, they are living wage jobs. The real income earning potential is leaving, while the debts are staying behind. Obama’s budget and gimmicks to “save” this economy do not make any of that better, it only adds to it. Oh yeah, and he’s surrounded with advisors who are proponents of the central bankers’ One World vision which allows the capital holders (them which they create from nothing) to pit one countries laborers and natural resources against another’s.

The DOW was up 204 points at its high, sold off 313 points, and bounced up 199 points to finally close up 89 points. That type of action is wind the spring stuff which could produce a small movement on the McClelland Oscillator, we’ll see later tonight. Meanwhile, the S&P finished up 1%, the NDX gained .19%, and the RUT managed to regain its 50dma by closing up 2.3%.

The XLF gaines 3.33%, and IYR did not manage to get back to positive even after gaining $2 off the bottom, and finished down .9%. Gold bounced off the 50dma and closed up 1.1%, while USO fell on another build in oil inventories. The VIX fell a little but managed to stay above it’s 200dma.

Internally, advancers led decliners by 2.3 to 1, and upside volume led on the NYSE by 66%. That’s a lot of Seth numbers… and there were 9 new highs, 6 new lows.

On the 30 minute SPX chart you can see that we broke the uptrend line today, but bounced off that critical 795 area to close back in the middle of the range again. The 30 minute stochastic is close to issuing a buy, the 10 minute is overbought, and the 60 minute is just coming up off oversold. If I was going just by the oscillators, I would guess that tomorrow we would move lower initially to satisfy the very short term, but then move up to satisfy the middle, followed by selling later to satisfy the daily:



Next is the 30 minute NDX. We broke the rising wedge and perfectly touched the shifted channel that Doc showed us last night as you can see with the black line I drew across the most recent lows. That puts his shifting channel/ higher scenario right on the table, although the SPX did not come down to touch its lower shifted channel line:



The SPX daily is a fat bodied doji which was made after pinning the 50dma and 23.6% fib line. Note that both the fast and slow stochastic are now overbought:



The DOW daily is much the same. Threw a pin through the upper Bollinger, fell all the way beneath the 50dma and bounced miraculously to stay above critical support, once again preventing a meaningful retrace. Today’s doji was on higher volume which I see across the market:



Looking at the XLF daily, it looks close to a hammer that is dueling with yesterday’s inverted hammer. The second hammer usually has precedence and the price would be expected to travel the length of the handle. This is more of a doji, though, so not reliable:



IYR dipped hard intraday and regained a lot back, but not before tripping a sell signal and a lower target on the P&F charts of only $6!



The Put/Call finished at .85 as a top defining extreme just hasn’t been able to get triggered in the sentiment gauges:



Momentum is still very bullish. Manipulation abounds, and will not win in the long run. Reality and math always win. The bond market is giving hints of that today, the equity people are riding in the short bus. McHugh has another turn date with a best fit of tomorrow, there should be a turn down at some point, but I can’t rule out more parabolic moves higher first, there’s still too many people who believe that the debt is a future problem and don’t see how it is TODAY’S problem. Yes, a little time out in the country is sounding really good about now…

Three Dog Night - Out in the Country: