Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 3/10

Good Morning,

Futures are up this morning with DOW futures up more than 90 points and S&P up about 13 which means that it is pushing up towards the 696 pivot and the top of the channel again. Here's the overnight action:

Retail sales for the past week came in weaker than expected, while chain store sales came in negative but slightly better than expected:
ICSC (Econoday):
Retail sales remained weak in the March 7 week, at a -0.9 percent year-on-year pace for a 0.2 percent rise week-to-week. The report said March "came in like a lamb" for retailers, but its February sales that will take center stage tomorrow with the release of the monthly Commerce Department report.

Heavy weather has made for a slow start to March retail sales, according to Redbook's same-store sales tally that shows a 1.4 percent year-on-year decline in the March 7 week. ICSC-Goldman's tally, released earlier this morning, shows similar weakness at -0.9 percent. But its not March sales that are the concern of the markets but February sales, definitive data for which will be released Thursday by the Commerce Department.

Citi is floating a memo claiming that they were profitable in the first two months of the year so far! Ha, ha, Yeahhhh, okay! It's amazing how brazen all the banks have become. Well, when faced with death, I guess desperate businesses do desperate things as well. In this case it would be very clever accounting, for sure. It would also mean not marking assets to anything near what they are worth. But hey, I don't expect anyone but me to raise the BS flag and I expect the markets will rally temporarily on such wonderful news. We're saved yet again.

Seriously, keep an eye on the channel top, we could throw over, but I'd be very protective if you're short and we get over that 696 - 700 range. If we do, the next pivot is up at 717-721 area, and then736. Next lower pivot is still 644.

Yesterday produced another small change in the McClelland Oscillator, so I expect a large price move today or tomorrow. Again, that is another reason to be careful today on a breakout. I will not, however, be surprised if we gap fill at least some of it this morning.

Also, this gap up is confirming for now all those inverted hammers I pointed to last night. If we get below yesterday's close, they will be invalidated.

That's about it, look at Doc's channels if you have any question as to where we are... a break above those channels may indicate that wave 4 of 5 has begun.

Have a great day,


Led Zeppelin - Stairway To Heaven: