Thursday, March 12, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 3/12

Good Morning,

The markets were down substantially overnight and then this morning the retail sales were not horrid and the market rose on that news, and in addition GE was called “stable” and was downgraded from AAA to AA+… and their stock popped. Quite the deal to see a company that’s on the ropes still called AA+. The sad jokes never end. The credit ratings industry is broken and needs to be totally revamped. Again, their profit incentive and model of charging fees for ratings is just ridiculous. Many, many people mislead by false and meaningless ratings.

I’ll compile this morning’s economic data into a separate post and will have it up soon. Not really anything to get too excited about either way. That said, the teevee crowd is glomming onto the “ex-auto” retail sales numbers and they came in slightly better than expected. Anything that makes ‘em feel better…

Gold is up overnight, the financials are down, bonds are up a little, and the dollar is up slightly. The Put/Call ratio came up slightly to .83.

I did notice a pattern this morning that I’m not quite sure what to make of it. It’s really only visible on TOS when the overnight trading is displayed. It’s the infamous dragon pattern… you should be able to see it in these charts on all the major indices (15 minute charts):

The rule on this pattern is that it is bullish if the “head” is above the back and bearish if it’s below the back. The problem here is that I’m not sure which is the back! I think the head is above it, but when I look for the pattern on Prophet without after hours, it’s not really recognizable as the same pattern. I think it’s just worth keeping in the back of the mind for now and we’ll keep looking at the channels and pivot points for now. However, a break above the "head" (a triangle) would be bullish, while a break lower, out of the head, would be bearish.

These patterns could also be constued as as W or even a double top. We'll just have to see how they play out.

Have a great day, see you on the market thread,