Monday, March 23, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 3/23

Good Morning,

Well, the Geithner plan is out and it’s “official," even if you or your representatives had no say in authorizing it. I don’t hear anything unexpected, what will be unexpected are the unintended consequences which are many. The reaction is positive so far in the financials with most of the larger banks up 5 to 10% on the news. The XLF is up more than 5%.

The broader market rose overnight with the S&P futures reaching a high of 790, but backing off to the 780 area on the actual announcement. The 777 area is an area of volume support and 789 is a pivot that has contained the rally so far. Here’s the overnight action:

Existing home sales data will be released at 10 Eastern and there are several bond auctions this afternoon. This is a big week for bonds, so keep your eye on that market. They must sell a lot and we’ll see if there are buyers besides Bernanke.

That’s about it, keep an eye on the XLF, the bond market, the VIX, and the oscillators. We were oversold, so a bounce early this week was expected. Now we get to see if we get further retrace or if we are able to print our way to a higher stock market level.

Have a good day,