Sunday, March 8, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 3/9

Good Morning,

Since we transitioned to daylight saving’s time, we all lost an hour of sleep over the weekend. Therefore this song just feels appropriate:

Bon Jovi & Bob Geldof - I don't like Mondays

And good news out of the pigman controlled Worldbank, they see global negative growth this year and the worst conditions since the Great Depression. That’s uplifting.

And the Cramer’s of the world can’t understand why the market would go down when the economy must be doing okay just because Merck and Schering-Plough are merging in a $41 billion deal. I say it’s terrific to consolidate all the drug makers into one, who would want competition there anyway? And the really good news? I won’t have to type out the word Schering-Plough anymore! $41 billion is all? Sounds like a screaming buy!? Ahhh… their market cap was $28 billion on Friday’s close… sounds like a great deal. But wait, let’s look at their stock over the past 5 days:

Geee, do you think someone had a little inside information? Could that be what fired up the late Friday rocket ride? Its ramp did begin about 10 to 15 minutes before the rest of the market. Who was doing all that buying? Where is the SEC? Oh, we know…

Whatever… the graft is now completely expected, we have all resigned to just sit back and marvel at the wonders of “free” enterprise.

Meanwhile banks overseas continue to be rocked with more bad news. Both HSBC and Lloyds are at the center of attention this week. HSBC shares lost another 10%, and Swiss Re reported a huge loss as well.

And we have Buffett coming out and saying that the economy has, “fallen off a cliff.” No kidding? Who knew or who could’ve known? Think there’s a reason J&J, WFC, and all the other “safe” recession plays finally began to crack? I told you he was sneaking out the door, finally, a few weeks ago. Selling shares in those names was the clue.

At any rate, most of the late day pump is now gone. That’s got to be yet another psychological blow to the bulls. All buying is just swamped with sellers.

The dollar made a very strong move again last night and is back above the old breakout level. Continue to watch that, I believe the action there will signal the direction for equities.

Hope you have a great day, looking forward to your input on the market thread…