Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/28

Good Morning,

Futures are down considerably again this morning with the /ES down in the 845 area just beneath the 848 pivot:

There were some strange movements last night in the gold futures, /YG. Just after the lockup, the price fell by more than $50 an ounce, but recovered most of it. Prices did wind up bleeding off and is currently down about $20 an ounce. The dollar initially rose, but has fallen back again this morning.

Bonds are higher, don’t ask me why or how. Deleveraging? Bernanke? The Treasury needing to borrow SIX TIMES its prior RECORD quarterly amount should have people running from our debt and burning our dollars! But then again the rest of the world is likewise as bad and the dollar and “safety” are definitely a perceived notion as fanciful as it may be.

And this morning Econoday is reporting that the ISCS store sales fell .7% last week, the worst rate in nearly 3 months:
Store sales fell back steeply in the April 25 week according to ICSC-Goldman's same-store index that fell -0.7 percent for a -1.7 year-on-year rate -- the worst rate in nearly three months.
Redbook comes out soon, we get some more Case-Schiller data, and consumer confidence comes out at 10 Eastern.

BAC shareholders get to vote tomorrow on whether to show CEO Ken Lewis the door – Adios Ken, couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

And there’s more talk that both BAC and C will need more capital as a result of the “stress test” which they are going to deny, of course. Whatever, they are toast regardless… the only question is how much and for how long are our idiot politicians going to keep giving our money to them? Or, the better question is how long are the people going to allow the greatest robbery in history to continue before they are all shown the exit at the business end of a pitchfork? Hmmm… American Idol still on? Check. Donald Trump still on? Roger that, it’s going to be awhile.

Swine/Mexican/Baxter flu, what’s an investor to do? The Air Force flying 747’s and fighter jets over the Hudson river w/o even coordinating? Pakistan fighting off the Taliban only miles from their nuclear arsenal? Automakers owned by the government and their employees? Oh my.

798 is the next lower pivot after 848. The short term stochastic say that a rally or at least sideways action may be necessary to get the oscillators back off oversold, although the 60 minute slow does have a ways to go before it reaches oversold. For now it’s just chop until we can exit the range we’ve been in, it would take a drop below 825 or so to do that.

Have a good day,