Friday, April 3, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/3

Good Morning,

The headline jobless rate jumped to 8.5% with 663,000 jobs lost in March. Unadjusted U6 jumped to 16.2% while seasonally adjusted U6 rose to 15.6%. January was adjusted down by 86,000 jobs, naturally - BLS Alternative Measures.

Futures were up initially, but fell back after the revisions were realized and that there have now been more than 2 million job losses so far in 2009. Here’s a chart of the overnight action, it’s pretty close to where we closed yesterday. RIMM’s report is holding up the market right now and thus it doesn’t look like we’re going to get a gap down to produce those shooting stars, but it’s still early.

Non-manufacturing ISM comes out at 10 Eastern, that has the potential to move the market as well.

Below is a chart that will update automatically when the new employment data is inputted. His numbers, and the U6 data, is much closer to the way unemployment used to be computed, so if you’re looking to compare today with the Great Depression, those are the numbers you should be using, not the watered down modern media numbers.

Chart of U.S. Unemployment

McHugh went long yesterday and is pointing out a "confirmed" Inverted Head & Shoulder's pattern on the SPX that would effectively double the rally to date if fullfilled. While that's possible, I don't think that pattern is as clean as he makes it sound. Remember the last one that was supposed to send us to 10,000? Never happened. We'll see, the action to date certainly feels like we've begun wave B up, but once you hit that feeling, that's usually about the time it ends. I think being careful in both directions is warranted, and I definately do not think people who are long term investors should be buying into the rally, the long term indicators have not been tripped and we have yet to even make a new high.

Have a great day,