Thursday, April 9, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 4/9

Good Morning,

Okay, so you wake up and read the following headline on CNN:

Initial jobless claims dip

The number of people filling for unemployment benefits for the first time dipped to 654,000, but continuing claims hits a record high.

Wow, that’s good news! Right? But then you go to Bloomberg and you read this:

Initial Unemployment Claims in U.S. Exceed 600,000 for 10th Straight Week

Ah, bummer man – you’re out of work!

LOL, I just love seeing how the same information gets twisted. Yes, for the week the number decreased from the week prior by 20,000, but it was only 6,000 below estimates and DEEP losses in an economy that needs to create jobs to grow not lose them. And the number of continuing claims, the most reliable and important number, rose to 5.84 million!

And then Wells Fargo (WFC) reported their trumped up earnings, claiming to earn 55 cents per share. What nonsense, this is a direct result of the mark-to-fantasy changes and the fact that they basically want to report whatever the heck they feel like, the banks run the government and the government is complicit in their false earnings reports. I expect one bank after the other to do this, so hang on for the ride, it’s going to be a doozy.

Meanwhile back in the real world, comparable store sales for Wal-Mart fell in March. Look for a feel good market attitude about the financials, but that drug induced feeling will fade when it becomes apparent that the consumer and manufacturing, the real engines of the economy, aren’t doing so great.

But for now, the market was up overnight and rocketed higher, being stopped only by the 848 pivot and being right up against the highs for this rally. Here’s a snapshot of the overnight action on the /YM (DOW futures) left, and /ES (S&P futures) on the right:



IYR also rose with the financials. I don’t know how far this rally runs, I think it’s dangerous and is ultimately destined to fail, but it can go on for longer than you think.

I apologize for the lack of updates and new posts, I’m trying to attend to some things after finally getting my taxes done. I’m getting caught up now but plan on spending some time with the family this weekend and should be back in full operation next week.

Have a good day,

Nate