Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 6/30

Good Morning,

Futures are basically flat and have been most of the night:

The ICSC same store sales report for last week came in 1.6% higher than the previous week, and was actually up .6% year over year. Here’s Econoday’s update:
Chain-store sales, helped by seasonable weather, thankfully popped higher in the June 27 week -- but not enough to salvage the month. ICSC-Goldman's same-store sales tally jumped 1.6 percent for the biggest weekly gain in six months. The year-on-year rate moved back in the positive column, at 0.6 percent to end three straight negative readings. But for the month of June, it's too little too late: "This late June spark was a welcome sign for the industry and the economy, however, for the month as a whole, June sales continue to track for a 'tough' month with the early part of the month weighing heavy on its performance." Redbook's tally through the first three weeks of June was unusually grim. Redbook's latest report is out at 8:55 ET today.

And speaking of Redbook that measures larger department store sales, it came in down 4.3% year over year in the same week:
Redbook is calling for collosal trouble in the June retail sales report, saying June store sales through the June 27 week are down 4.4 percent compared to May. Redbook's sample doesn't include vehicles, gas stations, or restaurants, a mixed bag of groups that won't bail-out a massive contraction elsewhere in the retail sector. The year-on-year rate for the June 27 week is minus 4.3 percent. ICSC-GOldman is also calling for big trouble in June. Vehicle sales will be posted tomorrow in what will be the first hard data for the June retail sales report.

The Case-Schiller home index came in with their 10 city gauge falling from an index value of 151.41 to 150.34. Their 20 city gauge fell from 139.99 to 139.18. This is a “slower rate of fall” in home prices.
Home prices are falling but not quite as fast, which is good news for the housing sector and the economy. Case-Shiller's 20-index fell 0.6 percent in April, down from a long run of minus 2 percent readings, while the year-on-year rate improved to minus 18.1 percent, 6 tenths better than the two prior months and moving in the right direction. Declines moderated but remain most severe in Phoenix, Miami, and Las Vegas. California cities showed significant improvement including San Francisco where prices actually edged higher in the month. Next data on the housing front will be tomorrow morning's MBA report where purchase applications have not been showing much improvement at all.

Hey, after a complete freefall, only sliding down the hill feels good, lol. No, the home price bubble has burst… the sheeple have experienced revulsion, and once that happens prices will not come roaring back. Busted bubbles never do.

The Chicago PMI is out at 9:45 eastern and Consumer Confidence follows at 10:00. I would expect an increase in confidence, but perhaps it won’t be as high as expectations as last month was a very large increase in the sheeple’s unawareness of the wool being pulled over their eyes.

The dollar is starting to rise and bonds look toppy in here with what appears to be a perfect abc correction of their recent collapse.

The pivots to watch today are still 912 below with 903 being an important support area, and 935 is the pivot above, but anything over yesterday’s high would be bullish.

Hope everyone has a great day,


Hey, it’s summer time and the shopping is easy. Think I’ll go hit the malls – ha, ha, NOT! But I’m sure my mall aversion won’t affect consumer confidence as they don’t ask me… guess we’re going to find out who feels like we do.

Peter Frampton - Do You Feel Like We Do: