Thursday, July 2, 2009

June Unemployment Worse Than Forecast…

The BLS (you can call it BS for short) reported a headline unemployment rate for June of 9.5%, up from 9.4% last month. The number of unemployed for June rose by a much worse than forecast 467,000 which followed the 322,000 number for May. You can read the BLS Employment Situation Summary at the link provided.

Of course with the bankruptcy of GM and Chrysler, who could have possibly expected the following?
Employment in manufacturing fell by 136,000 over the month and has declined by 1.9 million during the recession. Within the durable goods industry, motor vehicles and parts (-27,000), fabricated metal products (-18,000), computer and electronic products (-16,000), and machinery (-14,000) continued to lose jobs in June. Since the recession began, employment in motor vehicles and parts has declined by
335,000, or about one-third.

Certainly not the experts who actually get paid to make economic forecasts or who take your money to “invest.” They were forecasting 350,000 and thus the actual number was ONLY 117,000 or 33% WORSE THAN FORECAST. Nice call! Anyone who gives more than 2 seconds listening to the shills is simply going to throw their money away. Then you have idiots like Dennis Kneale who get on television with NO as in ZERO economic knowledge or common sense declaring that the “recession” is over. Sorry Dennis, not over and it’s a DEPRESSION, not a recession. The difference being a complete collapse of credit.

When we dig a little deeper and look at the BLS Alternative Measurements, we find the U6 measurement (closest to the way unemployment used to be calculated) rose to 16.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis and it jumped to 16.8% non-seasonally adjusted!

Here’s EconoPRAY’s take on the numbers and attempt to spin this data positive:
The labor sector continued to contract in June with payroll jobs falling more than expected while the unemployment rate rose just marginally. Nonfarm payroll employment in June declined 467,000, following a fall of 322,000 in May and a decrease of 519,000 in April. The June contraction in jobs was worse than the market forecast for a 350,000 decrease. May and April revisions were up a net 8,000. Payroll losses were widespread.

By major categories, goods-producing jobs dropped 223,000 in June, led by a 136,000 drop in manufacturing employment with motor vehicles & parts down 27,000. Construction decreased 79,000 while natural resources & mining slipped 8,000. Service-providing payrolls dropped 244,000 in June after falling 107,000 in May. Weakness was especially pronounced in professional business services which plunged 118,000. Notable declines were also seen in trade & transportation, down 51,000, and in government, down 52,000.

On a year-ago basis, payroll jobs were down 4.1 percent in June, compared to down 3.9 percent the month before.

Wage inflation was nonexistent in June as average hourly earnings unchanged after rising 0.2 percent in May. The latest gain was lower than the consensus forecast for a 0.2 percent rise. The average workweek slipped to an extremely week 33.0 hours from 33.1 hours in May.

From the household survey, the civilian unemployment rate rose to 9.5 percent from 9.4 percent in May and was lower than the consensus forecast for 9.6 percent. But the number of unemployed hit 14.7 million, a record high. The June unemployment rate is the highest since 9.5 percent for August 1983.

The June employment report was only a little worse than expected net, taking into account the smaller-than-expected rise in the unemployment rate. Also, jobless claims released at the same time were not as bad as expected. Overall, the markets have to mull over a steep drop in payroll jobs in June versus an easing in claims at month end. Markets may go back and forth today, trying to decide the net impact of this morning's numbers. But at the release of the numbers, the focus was on the worse-than-expected payroll loss, with equity futures headed down.

Nice try to make it sound better than it was… people have already forgotten the trend – nothing moves in a straight line. That’s what happens during economic collapses, people want to be positive and believe that the economy has turned up, but the truth is that the forces that caused this depression, namely excess debt, has not gone away, it has gotten dramatically worse as the government does all the exact wrong things to actually cause true improvement. Employment will not increase anytime soon because the rule of law is not being followed and thus people will put their capital to work elsewhere. No new meaningful factories here, real jobs will continue to go overseas.

John Williams over at helps keep us straight by tracking the data in a more consistent manner over time. Here’s his chart which will update itself automatically:

Chart of U.S. Unemployment

Note that his data now shows unemployment over 20%!

Meanwhile our exports are collapsing. Here we experienced a parabolic rise and you can see that the backside of the curve has begun:

The year over year rate of change is greater than at any time on record:

With an economy doing that, how can people make a call that the economy or employment are turning? Nuts.

The markets are overpriced even for perfection. The disconnect between price action and the fundamental economy have never been greater. People buying into the green shoots mantra are in for quite a rude awakening as the equity markets will soon be on a journey to visit Atlantis.

Donovan – Atlantis: