Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/28

Good Morning,

Equity futures are down overnight:

The dollar is mostly flat after being lower overnight (sitting right on last support), while bonds actually rose a little. How? Who’s doing the buying? I say it smells and I’ll repeat that over and over until there is a complete and independent audit of BOTH the Fed and the Treasury. $235 billion in one week? Sure.

And the first semi-rational thing to come out of BAC in quite a while is to learn that they are planning to shut down 10% of their branches. Meanwhile Deutsche Bank is down after taking another $1.4 billion in loss provisions.

Profits at Coach and Office Depot were way down. The metals are also down this morning.

ICSC store sales were up 1% week over week, but down .5% year over year. This report is put out by Goldman, and quite frankly I think it’s worth ignoring their year over year number, there’s just no way it’s even close to what’s happening in the real world. It may be useful to gauge one week to the next, but only for comparison sake.

So let’s look at the Redbook… This measurement of department stores is much more realistic, showing a 5.5% drop year over year this past week.

The Case-Schiller index actually came out with the first month to month home price increase in quite some time, rising .4% in the month of May in their 20 city report. However, prices were still down 17.1% year over year.

Consumer Confidence is released at 10 Eastern this morning, so be nimble. Consumer Sentiment was weak last week, so this could be too.

And there was another small change in the McClelland Oscillator yesterday which now means we can expect a large price move either today or tomorrow.

Here’s a 5 minute chart of the SPX showing the POTENTIAL ending diagonal I’ve been discussing. A break below the lower boundary may be a good short term sell signal for wave 2 down of c up of B up, should it occur which it looks like it’s going to at the open (be careful, Goldman’s computers are on as far as I know, lol).

Hey, it’s another day of corruption, lying, and market manipulation! Always been that way? Maybe, but not on the scale we’re seeing today. History will not be kind. So far though, it’s the same old stuff, taking my chances, over and over…

Joe Walsh – Over and Over: