Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/8

Good Morning,

Equity futures are up a little this morning which is to be expected after yesterday’s selling:



The only economic data this morning was the MBA’s Purchase Index which rose from 267.7 to 285.6. That is quite a rise for the week, but Econoday’s take is more optimistic than deserved.
MBA's purchase index popped 6.7 percent higher in the July 3 week to a 285.6 level that hints at improved demand for housing. The refinance index also jumped, up 15.2 percent to 1,707.7. Mortgage rates were little changed in the week, at a still favorable 5.34 percent for 30-year fixed mortgages. The housing market is still trying to find its feet, but today's results do point to better times ahead.

No, the housing market is NOT finding its feet. In fact, the next rounds of pain is just about to hit as the more expensive option arm resets are just kicking in.

Of course the IMF has to come out and raise their global economic growth forecast for next year to 2.5%. Why the revision today? Hmmm. Just keep in mind that the IMF is run by the same group of bankers who are running this country (and controlling the markets). Criminals all, who literally should be put on trial.

Now that the H&S top patterns are confirmed, I absolutely expect a little bounce and possibly even an overthrow of the neckline to shake people from what’s happening. The neckline is a natural point to stop out and I’m sure those stops will be challenged.

McHugh is saying that there is a phi mate turn date scheduled for the 17th that is coincident with a Fibonacci turn, AND a Bradley model turn all at the same juncture. This is rare and it raises the odds that there will be a mid-month turn, possibly as early as next week. That would most likely be a bottom, AFTER the H&S targets are reached. Of course it doesn’t have to happen that way, but just be aware of that time frame.

I’m watching the Transports for confirmation of a new short term low, all of a sudden they’re not leading anymore and the signals are usually better when both the DOW and Transports are moving into new lows or highs together.

And from the State of California, we were provided with this lovely chart showing cash flows for the next year. Lovely, especially with their I.O.U.'s due to be paid by October! I think we're all witnessing a spiral that's already gotten out of hand:



Here's Arnold's reaction to seeing the California Cash Flow chart as depicted by AZRainman:



Here’s what the banker’s trial and testimony would look like in Dave Chappelle’s eyes, LOL! (First skit only! Make sure you don't play that one at work or around "sensitive" ears...)

Dave Chappelle on White-Collar Crime: "I Plead The Fifth"
I plea Da Fif