Friday, July 10, 2009

Short Weekend Update…

I’m back, finally! So here’s the story on my cable/internet… yesterday early afternoon my wife sees a Comcast van drive by the house a couple of times slowly and the driver is staring in the window at her as he passes. Shortly there after the cable dies!

We look around the block and could see the neighbors still had cable, only ours was out. So I called Comcast and they said the earliest they could make it out was Saturday! I said no way and managed to get a guy out this afternoon and he found out that they had disconnected our cable at the junction, because they were finally getting around to terminating the service of the people who moved out two weeks before, AFTER connecting our new service! MORONS! They blamed it on a known computer glitch, which they have yet to fix. Why did the guy who saw my wife not knock on the door and ask? Did I mention MORONS?

Anyway, I’m back and I have just a couple of charts to share to give you a feel for where we are…

Here’s the big picture chart of percentages since this bear market began:

Obviously oil and commodities have been taking a very big hit and deservedly so as demand is WAY down and inventories are WAY up. Oil is back below $60 a barrel, here is a weekly chart:

And here is the oil P&F chart showing a bearish target for oil of $44:

Here’s a weekly chart of the SPX… fourth down week in a row now, the SPX is down 8% from its high, the DOW is off 8.2%. Again, the Head & Shoulders top has now been confirmed and the neckline at 888 has held as overhead resistance – the target on that pattern is 810ish. Volume this week was considerably higher than the shortened week last week. The weekly stochastic fast has now reached the mid-point:

The SPX daily produced its third doji candle in a row today, and you can see that prices are following the 200dma (red line) downwards. The daily stochastic and RSI are oversold:

The 10 minute chart shows that the down channel – let’s call that wave 1 – was broken and now we are either making wave 4 of 1 or wave 2. The short term stochastics are all in the middle range up to the 60 minute timeframe:

Did you see that California has now missed a huge quarterly payment to its schools ($4 billion)? They claim they will make the payment on July 30th… yet another huge I.O.U. Hey, welcome to the Hotel California!

Eagles - Hotel California (good intro):