Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Morning Update/ Market Thread 8/25

Good Morning,

Equity futures are up this morning, here’s the overnight action:

The Dollar is down, gold is up, oil is up, and bonds are flat. In other words, central banker nirvana, everyone’s so happy that they reappointed a criminal and a traitor to the United States to run the Fed. Yippee.

And what a criminal he is. He orchestrated the looting of the taxpayers to the tune of several trillion dollars, robbing those who work and giving their money and future earnings to the financial engineer risk takers who are still hiding trillions upon trillions in toxic debt and derivatives that are just festering and waiting to strike again. And he is robbing the working class a second time by devaluing our money and punishing those who save.

And Obama was all about change? Yet another lesson in money and politics. There is no doubt that we need to separate corporations and their money from state.

But what do you know… a judge actually ordered the Fed to tell us who got what. That’s the first positive step towards transparency and the first time I’ve seen the Judicial branch make an independent decision in years. I hope it stands, somehow I’m so jaded now that I think we’re being played and I won’t be surprised if we get the punch line in a few months time. I doubt the central bankers are just going to roll over.

The Goldman ICSC was out this morning, but we just ignore that other than this forward looking remark, “It sees a very steep 3 to 4 percent drop for August sales relative to July.”

The Redbook was down 4.4% yoy for the past week, here’s Econoday:
Cash-for-clunkers pulled sales from the back-to-school season, according to Redbook whose same-store year-on-year tally continues to show significant weakness at minus 4.4 percent. The report said apparel retailers are reporting special back-to-school trouble. Redbook sees a 0.7 percent full month decline compared to July.

The Case-Schiller Index is out for June, it rose to an index value of 141 from 139. Here’s the Bloomberg spin:
Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. cities fell in June at a slower pace than forecast, signaling the real- estate crisis that triggered the worst recession since the 1930s is dissipating.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index declined 15.4 percent from a year earlier, the smallest drop since April 2008, the group said today in New York. The gauge rose from the prior month by the most in four years.

Lower prices and government stimulus efforts have made homes more affordable to first-time buyers, spurring increases in sales that will eventually stem the slide in property values. Gains in housing and stocks will speed the process of restoring the record loss of wealth that has shackled consumer spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy.

“The sharp freefall in prices is over,” said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “People are entering the market and that is starting to normalize prices. It’s a clear positive.”

Oh yeah, home prices declining 15.4% in one year is clearly a positive, and who would ever think that the month of June would show a small increase from May? Why that never happens that time of year! Why I’ll bet there are all kinds of consumers lining up to get their 2nd, 3rd, and 4th mortgages just so they can run to the malls and buy more worthless crap from China, right? Of course that’s okay because China will, of course, just turn around and buy our debts from us forever and ever, and let’s just keep Ben Bernanke on forever because he’s done such a great job of ruining our economy and turning us into a fascist state of the corporation for the corporation where we socialize the losses and privatize the profits while casting aside all who make this nation truly great.

The reappointment of Bernanke is a clear vote for more of the same. The rumor was that the Chinese wanted him out, they do not want more of the same. This will be an interesting test, we’ll have to see what the TIC flows look like, but we won’t know for about 3 months due to the wonderful transparency offered by the central bankers who keep all the timely information for themselves and shovel it off to you after they have already acted on it.

Did I mention that the Fed needs to go away? That’s right, the central banks need to go bye-bye too and the people need to take back control of their money or they will wind up with none of any value.

Consumer Confidence numbers are out at 10 Eastern this morning, be ready for anything there. Consumer Sentiment last time was worse than expected, I don’t have a good read on how the sheeple are feeling, whether they are being fooled by a trumped up stock market rally and complicit media or if they are seeing and feeling reality? We’ll find out.

The Bernanke reappointment makes this a tragic and sad day for America. Get ready because he does not know or do math and math is about to teach America a huge lesson.

Pivots are at 1,041, then 1,061 on the up side, 1,018 is the support pivot.

Housing Happiness