Thursday, September 24, 2009

Davos on the Edge / Market Thread 9.25.2009

  • New Push for Global Currency
  • Gloom Boom & Doom (Video)
  • Peter Schiff, Dollar G20 (Video, H/T iDoctor)
  • A Coming Flood of Bank Owned Homes
  • Chart: Damaged REO, Mone-In Ready REO, Shorts & Non-Distressed
  • FOMC Between the Lines
  • Not Exactly Doom-and-Gloomers
  • Why the U.S. economy CAN'T “recover”
  • ICN (Video, H/T iDoctor)

Economy

New Push for Global Currency

The sun is setting on the US dollar as the ultra-loose monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve forces China and the vibrant economies of the emerging world to forge a new global currency order, according to a new report by HSBC.

Gloom Boom & Doom (Video)

Peter Schiff, Dollar G20 (Video, H/T iDoctor)

[video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2pp90ZMMwU]

A Coming Flood of Bank Owned Homes

Thus, it creates a “growing ’shadow’ inventory of pent-up supply that will eventually hit the market.”

Here’s the excerpt from the WSJ:

“The size of this shadow inventory is a source of concern and debate among real-estate agents and analysts who worry that when the supply is unleashed, it could interrupt the budding housing recovery and ignite a new wave of stress in the housing market . . . Analysts who track the shadow market have focused primarily on the gap between the number of seriously delinquent loans and the number of foreclosed homes for sale by mortgage companies. A loan is considered seriously delinquent, which typically means it is headed to foreclosure, if it is 90 days or more past due.

As of July, mortgage companies hadn’t begun the foreclosure process on 1.2 million loans that were at least 90 days past due, according to estimates prepared for The Wall Street Journal by LPS Applied Analytics, which collects and analyzes mortgage data. An additional 1.5 million seriously delinquent loans were somewhere in the foreclosure process, though the lender hadn’t yet acquired the property. The figures don’t include home-equity loans and other second mortgages.

Moreover, there were 217,000 loans in July where the borrower hadn’t made a payment in at least a year but the lender hadn’t begun the foreclosure process. In other words, 17% of home mortgages that are at least 12 months overdue aren’t in foreclosure, up from 8% a year earlier.”

This overhang is likely going to be problematic for years to come . . .

Chart: Damaged REO, Mone-In Ready REO, Shorts & Non-Distressed

FOMC Between the Lines

Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee anticipates that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will support a strengthening of economic growth and a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability.

We believe in the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus too, as shown by the clear contradiction with our previous paragraph.

Not Exactly Doom-and-Gloomers

According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, many successful entrepreneurs have similar traits and characteristics, including:

  • Persistence
  • Desire for immediate feedback
  • Inquisitiveness
  • Strong drive to achieve
  • High energy level
  • Goal-oriented behavior
  • Independent
  • Demanding
  • Self-confident
  • Calculated risk taker
  • Creative
  • Innovative
  • Vision
  • Commitment
  • Problem solving skills
  • Tolerance for ambiguity
  • Strong integrity
  • Highly reliable
  • Personal initiative
  • Ability to consolidate resources
  • Strong management and organizational skills
  • Competitive
  • Change agent
  • Tolerance for failure
  • Desire to work hard

In sum, they are not the kind of people who tend towards pessimism or who easily lose heart. With that in mind, the perspectives detailed by the nation's largest non-profit foundation devoted to entrepreneurship in the following report, "Entrepreneurs' Gloom Contradicts Wall Street Optimism," should give (further) pause to those who believe a "V"-shaped recovery is at hand:

Why the U.S. economy CAN'T “recover”

When asked to justify their reluctance to apply the label of “recession” to this economic collapse (which is, in reality, a Greater Depression), the reply was the same: formally declaring a “recession” was something which was done in hindsight – after enough data had accumulated to justify that backward-looking prognosis.

What a surprising coincidence that these same U.S. market-pumpers see absolutely no reason to exercise any caution at all when declaring a “recovery” has begun!

One of the chief propaganda tools of these shills is the index of economic “leading indicators”. Even if I were to concede these “indicators” were a persuasive tool for predicting future economic activity (which I don't), this particular statistic only has relevance if the economy is operating within something close to normal parameters – which it isn't.

ICN (Video, H/T iDoctor)

[video:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfqVuLST1-8]