Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Martin Armstrong – Deflation or Inflation, Which is More Likely?

Armstrong jumps into this key argument, first discussing why deflation occurred during the Great Depression and why this time may be different. Yes, he is falling into the inflationary camp seeing confidence waning in our dollar. He states that during the Great Depression European countries flocked to the dollar as currencies in Europe failed.

Is that not happening today? Latvia is just making headlines as I type?

While I completely agree that our dollar is destined to the dustbin of history, its demise is a matter of timing. I am going to once again point to the shadow banking system and the current unwinding of debt and leverage. That unwinding is NOT over and government efforts have NOT completely stopped the collapse of credit. Like Jim Sinclair, Martin will eventually be right on this call, I just don’t believe that time is now. Still, an interesting read, his history perspective is always educational.