Tuesday, October 27, 2009

National Economic Trends – October ’09…

This compilation of data and charts comes from the St. Louis Fed. They do not post their Economic Trends as often (quarterly) as they do their Monetary Trends that I post frequently and are updated partially every week.

Most of the chart series posted within this document are series that I show in other chart updates, so there are not a lot of surprises in this issue. It is, however, interesting to see this compilation of data... I think the trends that just jump out of the pages are deflation, the battle against it, and the very troubling trends in employment. For example, this chart showing Duration of Unemployment is very troubling. Of course we have been talking about the fact that thousands are now falling off the back side of the rolls.

On page six of this report, you will find the components of GDP, their contributions to the calculation and how they have changed over recent times. This type of analysis can be used to estimate GDP going forward, but note that all their GDP figures are “REAL,” meaning that they have been adjusted for inflation – the “deflator” used in this calculation is subject to massive manipulations.