Monday, October 4, 2010

Morning Update/ Market Thread 10/4

Good Morning,

Equity futures are lower this morning, but since it is a Monday, you have to ask yourself when staring straight down the barrel of a POMO loaded HFT if you feel lucky… well do ya? Punk! The dollar is up, bonds were up but have turned down, oil is down, and gold is down after hitting $1322 an ounce which can be considered fulfilling the bullish target from quite some time ago.

Yesterday evening the Yen had a great big move that looks like intervention in another attempt to weaken it… it lasted, oh, about a couple of hours and is now completely gone. Wonder how much that cost them?

Could gold be nearing a short term top? There’s a headline on CNN that says, “Catch Gold Fever – Buy an ETF.” You decide. There’s an accompanying article singing the praises of buying gold ETFs, a planted article by the industry I’m sure. For those who don’t have marketing experience, you should be aware that it is very common practice for companies to hire marketing firms that get stories implanted in publications. Thus nearly everything you read in the mainstream is actually marketing of some type – otherwise known as spin.

Speaking of spin, why do you suppose there was all of this terror travel news this weekend? “If only you knew what we knew, you’d be scarred, very scarred!” LOL, what a bunch of malarkey! This is how they justify their existence and the continued feeding of the military industrial complex. It’s the same thing that occurred when they were trying to force me and everyone else in the military to shoot up with anthrax. Lies, and more lies, with money buying officials in the background.

Not to worry, they’ll keep never ending growth from ending… Ahhh, oops! Take a close look at Consumer Metric’s latest chart of growth the way they track it compared to reported GDP! That blue line is now more negative than it was at the height of the crisis in ’08! Note how the GDP reports trail. Note the huge divergence in the direction of “growth” of this blue line compared to the stock market:

Many of the divergences now, like bonds, are larger than they were prior to the collapse in ’08. No, a trillion dollars now is not going to do anything besides make matters worse and more complicated. Note how the media is failing to pick up and report on the debacle in foreclosure paperwork. This is obviously industry wide and it is a huge deal. What’s more is that you have ask yourself was it limited to only foreclosure paperwork? I highly doubt it!

Looking forward, I would expect that this will trigger some sort of blanket mortgage refi program that will really be just another bank bailout in disguise. Is the populace being set up for that now? Look at how it’s presented in the mainstream once it starts, that’ll be the tell. The truth, of course, is that the fraud is rampant and the banks are insolvent regardless. Enron times a million is an understatement.

Factory Orders and Pending Home Sales will be released at 10 Eastern this morning. The important data this week will be Employment centered with the Employment Situation report for September coming on Friday. Expectations are for a rise from 9.6% to 9.7%, and I’ve seen 77,000 private payrolls tossed about. I think this report disappoints due to it being a seasonally small death/birth adjustment month.

Soft commodities have turned lower, below is a daily chart of the price of corn, you can see that the uptrend is clearly broken, that is true for most of the soft commodities as it’s completely obvious that the momo POMO hot money has simply rotated over to ramp oil which is now pressing $82 a barrel – nice job of destroying an economy there Fed – btw, if I hear the phrase “don’t fight the Fed” one more time I’m going to barf up some corn based products:

We never did get a resolution to last week’s small change in the McClelland Oscillator, thus we can still expect a large directional move.

Friday’s VIX candle was another inverted hammer – these have been pretty consistent at indicating a turn up the wick, let’s see what follows this one:

Meanwhile we’re still in the range between 1130 and 1150… the spring is coiled, you can feel it, it’s been too long, the spin too great. Speaking of spin, something about to snap, and things that are corny…