Friday, March 12, 2010

Set the Swarms "Free"

With headlines from the past week, here's Bubba's second economusic rendition. He's getting smoother, like it Bubba, keep bringing the sting!

Morning Update/ Market Thread 3/12

Good Morning,

After closing just a fraction below January’s high, prices appear set to open higher, thus pushing the SPX over the top. Below is a 60 minute chart of the DOW futures on the left and 5 minute version of S&P futures on the right:



The dollar is lower and exactly touched its rising uptrend line from December. Bonds turned sharply lower, they are sitting right back down on the very large H&S pattern’s neckline. A break for bonds below that neckline will signal much higher interest rates in the months ahead. Oil is higher, gold is about flat.

Note that prices rose to new highs overnight before any economic news this morning. Then came retail sales which look, well pathetic, but are being much trumpeted by the media. For February, “the bad weather month,” retail sales rose .3% which was higher than expected by the supposed experts. Note that the year over year comparison weakened compared to January and that comparisons are now relative to the height of the financial freeze. These Retail Sales numbers are for surviving stores only! They do not look at overall sales dollars and compare them to last year, yet another very flawed statistic, one that does not match sales tax receipts. Yet we are going to party like it’s 1999! Here’s Econoday:
Highlights
Apparently, consumers more than caught up on spending when the snow melted as February sales were much stronger than expected for that snow bound month. Overall retail sales in February rose 0.3 percent after rebounding 0.1 percent in January. The gain was higher than the consensus forecast for a 0.2 percent slip. But the gain was far better after discounting a drop in auto sales. Excluding autos, sales in February jumped a sharp 0.8 percent, following a 0.5 percent boost the month before. Excluding both autos and gasoline, February sales spiked 0.9 percent, following a 0.5 percent rise in January.

The consumer is spending more than most economists and analysts have been expecting. Most likely, those with jobs are more confident about the economy staying strong enough for them to keep their jobs and are more willing to spend.

The February jump in sales was broad based but leading the increase were electronics & appliance stores, up 3.7 percent; miscellaneous store retailers, up 2.5 percent; food & beverages, up 1.3 percent; and sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores, up 1.2 percent.

Overall retail sales on a year-ago basis in February decreased to up 3.9 percent, from up 4.1 percent in the prior month. Excluding motor vehicles, the year-on-year rate slipped to 4.2 percent from 4.3 percent in January.

Oh yeah, the consumer is going to lead us out of this recession. Try the $2 Trillion increase in government spending has created a temporary debt pushing drug high.

Consumer Sentiment is released just before 10 Eastern.

Has everyone caught the news about the off balance sheet transactions that were occurring at Lehman before they failed and is most likely occurring at the current large banks? Quite the accounting scandal, it’s ongoing, and the scale of it is going to make Enron look like Kindergarten by the time it’s all exposed. And no surprise, little Timmy Geithner, Dick Fuld and the SEC all KNEW about the fraud. Totally corrupt, the debt pushers are addicts who now are so far gone that they cannot survive without breaking the law.

There was yet another small change on McClelland Oscillator yesterday, meaning that we’ll likely see a large move in price within the next two days.

We have a potential DOW Theory non-confirmation in play should the Industrials fail to close above their January high. The daily charts are about as overbought as they have ever been. This move over the past two weeks was parabolic, sending daily Stochastic readings well above the 99% level. This is manic buying, a party that is eerily similar to both 1999 and to 2007.

Dr. McHugh, our Swarm target yesterday and Elliott Wave expert, has identified two possible scenarios should the DOW confirm the new high along with the rest of the indices. One is that this has been wave 5 up and that it will lead to a flat with a more shallow next wave down, but the other possibility is the following in his words:
“…should prices rise above the January 19th 2010 highs. Stocks could be completing a double Zig Zag for Supercylce degree wave (B) up, correcting the decline from October 2007 through March 2009. If so, we would look for a top around 11,100ish, the 200 week moving average in the Industrials. That top could possibly arrive around our April 7th phi mate turn date, and probably be this year's version of the spring equinox cycle turn.

The same count is possible in the S&P 500 should it rise above its January 19th, 2010 top. A double Zig Zag.

If this alternate labeling is occurring, unfortunately for markets and our economy, it means the Grand Supercycle Degree wave {IV} Zig Zag scenario is very likely, and catastrophic wave (C ) down is next, with a possible downside target toward zero.

Just a possibility though, so no worries – keep the party and that beautiful accounting fraud rolling. If you didn’t realize that criminals are running our financial system and our country, you do now. Karl Denninger wrote a short piece on it, time to start getting educated on the latest Lehman - Where Are The Cops?

Oh yeah, it’s time to Party like its 1999!



Thursday, March 11, 2010

Damon Vrabel - Russia, Greece, Chile, and the Narcissism of Harvard Debt Lords

Damon does not pull punches. He is spot on, a go getter, and is on a mission for Freedom's Vision. Damon will be a regular contributor at www.SwarmUSA.com.

Today marks the beginning of a new administration in Chile as Harvard economist and billionaire Sebastián Piñera eked out a narrow victory in January. Interestingly this is related to the rest of the world as we also see today Greek police, dressed in the Darth Vader costumes used in every country, cracking down hard on their poor countrymen. They have been robbed by the elite financier/politician tag-teams that roam the world attacking whichever country and currency they choose.

Since almost every currency is just a debt-based instrument, the tag-teams are quite successful. Despite the claims of neoclassical economics and the theories of Harvard Business School, having a debt-based currency means that governments are not in charge of their countries. We are living in a world governed by the bond market, billionaires, and elite financial institutions, not governments. The future is grim if this isn’t changed.

People who dismiss this will learn the painful lesson in due course. Most countries, especially the United States, are now stuck under incomprehensible levels of debt just waiting for financiers to attack. National foreclosure is coming. Those who paid attention when it happened to southeast Asian countries, Russia, Argentina, Mexico, and others know what is coming. People who are paying attention now to Greece can see what is coming—the end of cash transactions, the loss of sovereign land, the privatization of resources, massive taxation, the end of support for the lower classes, and an active police state.

Plutocracy: Government by the Wealthy Few

The Greek protesters are chanting “no sacrifice for plutocracy” while being tear gassed and beaten. It certainly isn’t the catchiest phrase I’ve ever heard, but it is precisely accurate. The private sector rich rotate through the public sector so their nexus of power cannot be threatened. The citizens of Iceland understood this and luckily took their power back by refusing to payoff the fraudulent loans of the foreign financiers. Why has no other country done this? Why have no US states, bankrupt for the same reason, done this? In every situation other than Iceland, the politicians submit to the financiers, put their citizens in austerity, and sick the storm troopers on the poor like a pack of pit bulls.

The reason they submit is primarily because mega banking institutions control money (see previous article on Wall Street http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/20368).

But politicians also submit because they are willing accomplices. They increase deficits and participate in the game that builds up the leverage in the first place, which makes a few people very rich. Then when debt deflation or a currency attack occurs, they continue playing the game. We have seen this in the United States over the last several years as presidents let the near-billionaire Harvard boys Robert Rubin and Hank Paulson setup the game, not to mention the not as rich Ivy Leaguers like Larry Summers and Tim Geithner. So far trillions have been stripped from the American people. But we are only at half time. You will know when the 2nd half has started when you look outside your front window and see the picture from Greece above.

The few politicians and financiers I am talking about have been playing this game together for a long time. They are bred in a world separate from you and me. They live in the same elite enclaves, attend the same private prep schools, go to the same Ivy League colleges, business schools, and law schools, and then spread out between New York and Washington DC to continue their self-serving partnership. Again, I’m talking about a small group, not 95% of the graduates of these institutions.

A useful indicator for whether someone is part of the select few or not is narcissism. Are they ruthless overachievers for a paycheck? Is class status important to them? Do they have contempt for the average person? Do they strive to become part of the oligarchic elite in clubs like the Council on Foreign Relations? The answer is yes to all of those questions for some very key names we have seen over the last several years:

Robert Rubin – CFR, Harvard, Goldman, Treasury, Citi
Hank Paulson – CFR, Harvard, Goldman, Treasury
Larry Summers – CFR, Harvard, Treasury, World Bank
Tim Geithner – CFR, Dartmouth, Treasury, Fed, IMF
Jamie Dimon – CFR, Harvard, Chase, Fed
The list could go on for a while. It includes both the private sector folks getting fabulously rich from our monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policy over the last 30 years, and the government officials who are making the policy. In fact the officials making the policy ARE the rich private sector few who benefit from it—the definition of plutocracy and oligarchy.

You will not see people on this list who would be true public servants:
Brooksley Born – tried to stop the Harvard boys under Clinton
William Black – defended the country in the S&L scandal
Janet Tavakoli – explains the public-private fraud better than almost anyone
Eliot Spitzer – could be the modern Teddy Roosevelt going after the plutocrats
People like this are capable of compassion and concern for fellow human beings. They can see through Ivy League schmarm and are not controlled by a desire to be part of the inside clique. They do not suffer from narcissism, which is easy to detect as you see them talk on TV (actually Spitzer is narcissistic, but he is the type that wants to fight the establishment narcissists, so he is a real public servant). If these people ran Treasury, SEC, FDIC, Justice, and other regulatory agencies, we might have a country with a future for the average person. Instead we only see the connected few in these positions.

Harvard Economists, Debt Lords, and Billionaires in Government

In the US, the Harvard economists and billionaires who want to run things have to hide behind lawyers and corporate institutions or be appointed to unelected positions like Treasury Secretary because our citizens would never vote for them. But something has changed in Chile where for decades they voted for public servants who have worked to eliminate poverty but have now put a Harvard economist and billionaire in office.

How did Sebastián Piñera become a billionaire? The same way the most powerful people in the world make money—by using debt to suck wealth from the population creating all the value. He founded credit card company Bancard and helped put the Chilean people in debt to the Anglo banking model. Will someone like this serve the public interest?

Well, here’s a scary thought experiment: would Jamie Dimon, CEO of the biggest debt machine in the US and insider on the NY Federal Reserve Board, be a president who cares about you? Any narcissist who can lecture lower class Americans to pay their debts, the source of his wealth, while his firm is in the process of tripling credit card rates and kicking them out of their homes has no business coming anywhere close to the public sector. This is the type of guy who now runs Chile. Of course with Rubin, Paulson, and their protégé Geithner in Treasury, this is also the type of guy who has run the US for several years.

As a fellow Harvard Business School alum, guys like Jamie Dimon and Hank Paulson embarrass and disgust me by furthering the financial empire system beyond reasonable means to keep lining their wallets while impoverishing the American Republic and conquering other nations. There are more just like them in the select club. But even worse than these MBAs chasing paychecks is the Harvard economist Larry Summers who creates the economic structure within which the MBAs operate. He tore down Glass-Steagall and led the free market jihad against any and all regulation in derivatives, which setup the Wall Street structure that brought us to the crash of 2008. He and his colleague Andrei Shleifer tried to privatize Russia in 1998 and hand it over to the wealthy oligarchs, while Shleifer was personally profiting from insider trades on Russian companies. Then while he was president of the institution, he had Harvard pay the legal settlement for Shleifer, infuriating other Harvard professors. Summers also helped put Mexico in debt and reinforce the plutocratic regime there in the peso crisis of 1994.

These people need to be stopped. It should be clear by now that Harvard MBAs voraciously pursuing paychecks running mega financial institutions, after Harvard economists have rigged the regulatory system, can do a lot of damage. The citizens of Iceland have realized this and set the example. If other countries fail to follow, their populations face a future clash with their police just as Greece is experiencing today. Why the police agree to make war against their own people in order to protect rich guys is a topic for another article, but it could all be avoided if countries would just reassert their sovereignty.
* Start phasing out debt-based currencies by creating sovereign ones that are an asset to the people. Pass usury laws at the same time to prevent banks from jacking up rates to suck up this extra money and creating a financial catastrophe.
* Put people like Born, Black, Tavakoli, and Spitzer in charge.
* Breakup the Wall Street banks. Also end their cartel by nationalizing the Federal Reserve, thereby passing power back to the states and state-chartered banks.
* Push your state governments to spend asset money into the system (see the Minnesota Transportation Act). California and Illinois are about to be pushed into Greece’s foreclosure situation. It does not need to happen if only the governments would do their constitutional duty.

Swarm Clouds on the Horizon

Terrific first video effort by SwarmUSA.com member, "Bubba." Headlines are just from 3/10/2010.



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Morning Update/ Market Thread 3/11

Good Morning,

Equity futures are down hard this morning, the selling began immediately after the close yesterday. This looked very much like the market makers were holding sell orders to me, a game that I haven’t seen played in some time. But then again it could also be the mysterious and laughably ridiculous ability of the big manipulators to buy and sell in “dark pools.” In any event, the casino’s computers were finally switched to sell as the people who needed to get out of their C, AIG, FRE, and FNM positions are finally gone. Now all that’s left are the poor saps still holding onto their rotational tech shares that were purchased in the casino’s favorite new game of musical chairs. Oh yes, that rotational trade game is an oldie but a goodie, played only near major tops and designed to leave only the slowest standing when the music stops.

Below is a 60 minute chart of the DOW on the left and a 5 minute chart of the S&P on the right showing the late night casino hours:



Note the broken up channel on the DOW – do not ignore that! The dollar is up, bonds are roughly flat, oil is down and gold is down fairly hard after falling hard yesterday in what looked like margin call activity from somewhere.

Want to talk about the results of exponential growth? Here’s the ticker off the wire yesterday:

BN 13:00 *U.S. POSTS RECORD $220.9 BILLION BUDGET DEFICIT IN FEBRUARY

A record $221 Billion in one month! In the month of February our nation took in only $107 Billion, the first increase in 21 months, but spent a staggering $328 Billion! Niiiice. This chasm is so wide that we only covered ONE THIRD of our expenditures!

Please, let that sink in.

That’s right, we spent three times the amount of money we took in! Now, how long do you suppose our monetary system has left at that rate? I say that math is so far gone, that Freedom’s Vision is the ONLY possibility of moving forward as a nation. We need to get on it, time is running short. There is simply no way this nation carries on this way for much longer. The above truth is shocking. We need to get the word out on this, even if it means placing that statistic on Facebook and directly to your friends. Let them know there’s a solution and that we need their help.

The morning the latest International Trade numbers came out showing a narrowing of the trade deficit, which is good, only in this upside down world, it is bad because it means the Ponzi scheme is dying a tortured and agonizing death. Here’s Econoday, they won’t look at it quite the same way:
Highlights
Based on the latest trade numbers, either worldwide final demand is not growing as much as hoped or the January numbers are simply coming off sharp gains the month before. The overall U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly shrank in January despite higher oil prices, falling to $37.3 billion from a revised $39.9 billion in December. The January shortfall was much narrower than the consensus forecast for a $41.0 billion gap. Exports slipped 0.3 percent but imports fell a sharper 1.7 percent.

The improvement in the trade deficit was about evenly split between the petroleum and nonpetroleum balances. The petroleum deficit came in at $22.7 billion, down from $23.6 billion in December as barrels imported fell significantly. The nonpetroleum gap narrowed to $25.4 billion from $26.9 billion in December.

The decreases in exports and imports were broad based by components but with those for imports more notable. However, both followed strong gains in December as exports jumped 3.4 percent that month and imports surged 4.9 percent in December. At second look, it is not clear whether the drop in imports likely reflects a downgrade in the recovery by U.S. businesses believing that demand growth will be more sluggish.

The shrinkage in the petroleum deficit was due to a sharp 11.5 percent fall in barrels imports, following a12.5 percent boost in December. The price of imported oil increased to $73.89 per barrel from $73.20 per barrel in December.

Year-on-year, growth in overall exports of goods and services in January increased to 15.1 percent from 7.7 percent in December. The numbers are still coming off a low base during the worst of the recession. Meanwhile import growth rose to 11.9 percent from 4.7 percent the prior month.

It would have been nice for the eight month consecutive gains in exports to continue but there are always oscillations in any series. Taking into account recent strong gains, the January dip may or may not mean much in terms of overseas demand. The same may hold true for imports and domestic demand-but we will have to watch for other numbers to see.

On the news, markets were little changed this morning.
The year over year numbers are now up substantially off the bottom, I believe those will begin to fall back again rapidly as the comparisons will quickly get away from the standstill period of the beginning of last year. New month on month decreases are not saying the same tune that is being sung by the debt pushing crowd. And let’s face it, the vast majority of international trade is on the back of our massive debt. What happens when the exponential growth in government debt begins to collapse? Debt is money, international trade will collapse right along with it, as it already has due to the collapse of private sector debt. The life support cannot remain forever.

Jobs? Jobless claims came in at a still horrid level of 462,000 for the past week:
Highlights
Jobless claims remain stubbornly high, pointing to continued slow bleeding for payrolls. Initial jobless claims totaled 462,000 in the March 6 week, about what was expected and driving up the four-week average by 5,000 to 475,500 for the highest level since November when claims first broke below 500,000. There won't be much hope for payroll gains until claims move convincingly below 450,000.

An emerging negative may be continuing claims where declines have fizzled out. Continuing claims in the Feb. 27 week rose 37,000, marking the fifth increase out of the last eight weeks. The four-week average has stabilized the last two weeks at 4.581 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 3.5 percent.

This report was unusually choppy week-to-week during February and unfortunately, in the first week of March at least, has stabilized at uncomfortably high levels. Equities and commodities fell as did the dollar in reaction to today's report.



How long have we been at this type of level, it seems like forever. Our economy needs to be creating massive jobs just to break even and the opposite is happening. Why? Look no further than debt saturation. Jobs in northern Florida hard to find? NASA laying of hundreds, no money to spend on that, only on debt. Kansas City closing HALF its schools??? No money for schools, only to service DEBT.

Oh yeah, sure, it was the unions that killed our economy, just like it was the unions that killed GM and Chrysler. What nonsense! Unions were created in this country for good reason, they were a part of a natural balancing act that arose during the industrial revolution and unions brought huge strides in worker safety. Trust me, flying on an airliner would not be the completely routine task that it is today were it not for labor’s ability to organize to affect change.

No, try this reality on and see if it fits… Unions now seem like they are very over paid because they were able to actually increase their wages at something almost as fast as the central bankers and debt pushers inflated our economy. The cost of housing through the roof on the back of fraudulent credit derivatives?? How does a fire fighter in San Franscisco buy a house to live in? So the spiral was circling higher, and higher, but what ignited the spiral, was it the union and their demands for higher wages? Or did the spiral start with the debt pushers? The answer is obvious. Look at GM. GM could have not paid one cent to all their workers and not a penny in benefits, yet they still would have lost billions and billions per month. This is because they did the same thing with automobile debt as subprime and other exotic mortgages did to housing debt. Oh, and GMAC also stupidly got on board the housing debt mania. That is a complete and total failure of management, not just of GM management but of the management of our banking system and of our government.

Do wages now have to adjust to a new post credit bubble reality? That's the way it's supposed to work, but that will not end the cycle of crisis.

And America is now stifling our chance to start over by keeping those crippled companies who failed alive. That’s not the way nature is supposed to work. If union demands are so high that they cannot be supported, then the business becomes non-competitive and it goes away. Thus the check and balance has been short circuited. This is what happens when economic and government distortion is piled high, one upon the other. The root cause of our problems lie squarely on the pushers of debt, it’s WHO controls the money that’s important, THAT is the root of the problem.

Moving back to our casino, there was a small change in the McClelland Oscillator meaning that there should be a large move in price today. Can the market move downward more than 1 or 2%? You bet it can, the warning signs are there. Just that scary new high figure alone should have you running for the hills. Non-confirmations all over the place, the market was not moving up together. Yesterday the Transports made a new high and yet the Industrials never got close and are now falling away. The up channel is now broken, Buckle up.

Tom Petty – Breakdown:

Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Success! SwarmUSA.com Receives Mention by Gerald Celente on Fox News…

Way to go Swarm! Only our third person swarmed, and already a mention on national television. It was only a mention, but being swarmed had enough of an impact on Celente that he mentioned it on air the same morning!

"...it's time to become active. It can be turned around, it IS being turned around." That is what followed the mention of the Swarm. Reference is near the end of the clip about 8:15 in...

Gerald Celente – Freedom Watch with Judge Napolitano:


The immediacy of the impact on Celente shows that even the relatively small numbers we have now are effective. Now hopefully he'll carry the talk forward. I have a request in to have a discussion, we'll see if he comes through for us. As we grow and get more attention I believe the discussion about content of Freedom’s Vision will come. Thank you to all who helped to make this Swarm a success!

Guest Article - An Introduction to The Money Problem and its Impact On You

Below is a paper written by a supporter of Freedom’s Vision and a fellow Swarm member, Jeff. Nice job, Jeff, it’s good to see that others understand the problems and can see the correct path out.

Jeff put together this piece to provide a resource for those who are not familiar with the basics of the way our money system really works. At the bottom of the paper are links to some good videos for those who have not seen them.
An Introduction to The Money Problem and its Impact On You

America's debt based monetary system is inherently unstable. This is true of most monetary systems across the world. Do you want high unemployment? Do want more poverty and hunger? Do you want most wealth concentrated in very few people? Do you like boom and bust cycles? If so, read no further, the monetary system to achieve these goals is already in place.

If, however, you want to work toward a better world, keep reading – we need you to join The Swarm in order to make the world a better place by bringing the money power back under the control of the people and end the debt based money supply system.

Did you know...

• About 99% of all money has been produced by creating debt - it is how our monetary system works.

• Our nation's debts are effectively our money supply.

• It is impossible to pay down our debts without severely restricting the money supply.
Please view - How Money Is Created And Destroyed

• Our nation cannot take on unlimited debt - there is a maximum limit to our debt load and we appeared to have hit it in 2008.
Please see - AbsoluteDebt to GDP

• There is never enough money in the money supply to service existing debts.

• Defaults, bankruptcies and poverty are built into the monetary system - there is no escape.

• The wealth of the nation is being systematically transferred from the citizens to the bankers - even before the trillions of dollars of banker bailouts.
Please view - What The Bankers Don't Want You to Know

In conclusion, the current monetary system was destined to inflate the debt until we hit the upper debt limit and then collapse. A monetary collapse is not a pleasant experience. It can result in a deflationary depression that sucks away jobs, income and assets from the citizens (to the bankers for pennies on the dollar). That process has already started. The alternative is severe or hyperinflation where one's purchasing power is quickly eroded.

The solution?

SwarmUSA.com and Swarm Central!

"We, The People" have to restore the nation's money powers to the constitutionally directed Congress where, "We, The People" can vote out any legislators every two years if they don't properly respect the money power bestowed upon them by the people.

Videos for more in-depth study:
Money as Debt

Money As Debt II

Truth about U.S. Federal Reserve - Part 1

Truth about U.S. Federal Reserve - Part 2

The Money Masters

Thank you, Jeff! Please keep in mind that some of the videos above are trying to simplify the way the system really works. Some of the details are not exactly correct, but for the novice they will get you started in the right direction of understanding.

Morning Update/ Market Thread 3/10

Good Morning,

Equity futures are flat as we head into the open this morning, below is a 60 minute chart of the DOW on the left and 5 minute version of the S&P on the right:



The dollar is flat, bonds are down, both oil and gold are down slightly.

The completely worthless MBA Purchase Applications “Index” came out with yet another wild and highly unbelievable move for the week, up 5.7% supposedly for purchases, but down 1.5% for refinancing. All we know is that two weeks ago they claim it hit an all-time low, but since they don’t tell us their index value or anything else, they would be far better off just keeping it to themselves. Again, since they spew this nonsense in public, we must be aware of others are being shoveled:
Highlights
Purchase applications for mortgages jumped for a second week, up 5.7 percent following a 9.0 percent surge in the prior week. The back-to-back gains do follow an even greater run of declines and the index is still depressed, but two or three more weeks of such gains would be an early signal that demand is rising ahead of April's stimulus expiration.

The gain wasn't fed by a move lower in rates as rates rose across the board, up 6 basis points for 30-year loans at an average 5.01 percent. The refinancing index slipped 1.5 percent. Next data on the sector will be the homebuilder index on Monday.
Wholesale Trade is out at 10 Eastern, the petroleum report at 10:30, tomorrow is jobless claims and International Trade.

Here’s a great real world example showing how the math of our debt backed money has moved into an exponential growth phase:
The Kansas City Star
Benjamin Franklin, father of the first U.S. census — which cost $44,000 in 1790 — famously said that “a penny saved is a penny earned.”

Were he alive today, Franklin might have a less flattering saying for the bureaucrats running the 2010 census, which is costing taxpayers $15 billion — and rising.

That’s $48 per person counted, compared with $16 in 2000 (about $20 adjusted for inflation) and about a penny in 1790 (or 24 cents after 220 years of inflation).
$48 per person!? Just to count a person? Talk about bureaucracy at its worse.

In just one decade the cost to perform the census grew by exactly 200%! If only it were to grow 200% more, by 2020 it will cost $144 per person, but that’s not the way exponential growth works… if the exponential rate has not collapsed by then, which it is almost certain to do, then it will cost considerably more than even that wild number. Of course it’s okay, it’s a “stimulus” to the economy, never mind the drag that all the debt places on it. At this rate the only people employed by 2020 will be census workers, we’ll all make our living by counting one another.

Again, not to worry, not to worry. The Greek crisis is over and the rest of the region has no problem whatsoever, all the debt has magically disappeared.
Greek Crisis Is Over, Rest of Region Safe, Prodi Says

March 10 (Bloomberg) -- The worst of Greece’s financial crisis is over and other European nations won’t follow in its path, said former European Commission President Romano Prodi.

“For Greece, the problem is completely over,” said Prodi, who was also Italian prime minister, in an interview in Shanghai today. “I don’t see any other case now in Europe. I don’t think there is any reason to think the euro system will collapse or will suffer greatly because of Greece.”
My only response to that is LOL.

Turning to the markets, yesterday they were headed down when guess what happened? A rumor was floated that the SEC was going to ban all short selling on C, FNM, FRE, and AIG. Now go look at those charts and tell me what you see and at what time their ramp jobs began. The SEC has not, to my knowledge, denied this. The people who floated this rumor belong in jail. The SEC is complicit in destroying the rule of law for at the very least failing to act once again. But it’s okay because it caused the market to go higher. I will simply remind people that the odds of a full-on market crash statistically go way up in the days following any talk of banning short selling. Why do you think it’s being discussed and rumors being floated? I can tell you this, that a very large percentage of the overall market volume yesterday was shares in C. This looks like a classic case of pump and dump to exit a position by the game masters. Nice market, nice “investment.”

And that makes talking about the rest kind of pointless, eh? Well, due to the pump, the NDX did reach a new high and so did the Transports. Again, a divergence as the DOW and SPX have not. Volumes are still anemic. Conditions are overbought in the extreme and now the weekly stochastic is overbought once again. By my eye, we are now in wave 5 up of c up of whatever wave this is, I’m still working it as a wave 2 until we make new highs with the DOW and SPX. If we make new highs then it is a wave 5 and not a wave 2. Either way the next wave is down.

The Eagles – Pretty Maids all in a Row:

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

A Talk Along the Edge – Nathan Martin and B.J. Lawson…

No fancy musical lead in, no commercial interruptions, just plain old fashioned talk about B.J. Lawson, his run for Congress, the problems of our current money system, and Freedom’s Vision.

Nothing inside the box, no discussion you will hear anytime soon on the mainstream… only on the Edge.

While B.J. may need some time to come around entirely to the concepts of Freedom’s Vision, he is LIGHTYEARS ahead in his thinking than the vast majority of those currently seated in Congress. I hope he is able to retain his clear thinking and can resist the forces of special interests to continue to do what’s right and in America’s best interest.

You can find BJ Lawson here: http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/.

You can find information about "The Plenty" here: theplenty.org, an educational experience with community money.

Please do what you can to support BJ; vote for him, donate what you can afford to his campaign, and volunteer for his campaign if you can. We support those who support the main concepts of Freedom’s Vision and who are most likely to actually turn it into law.




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FedUPUSA - The ORIGINAL Tea Partiers...

What follows comes from the Stephanie and RJ at FedUpUSA. They are two of the very hardest workers for freedom I know; they are both Swarm members and Freedom’s Vision supporters. Please patronage their site and you will stay well informed on what’s happening – http://fedupusa.org/2010/03/09/fedupusa-the-original-tea-partiers/.
On April 25, 2008, a group of concerned citizens, from across the country, who met on an online forum called Market-Ticker.org decided that it was necessary to start tying to wake people up to the fact they were being robbed. Not only were they being robbed, but the robbery was about to become brutal.



Just a few days after Bear Stearns was forcibly merged into JPMorgan, using YOUR tax dollars, we stood in downtown New York city, with signs and literature, educating the public about what had just happened. We were well-received by many people, but there were almost as many people who thought we were nuts.

After watching this video, and seeing for yourself what has happened since April of 2008, NOW how nuts do you think we are?

It has been a hard road to haul, trying to wake people up. It was hard being ridiculed and laughed at. It was hard seeing friends and loved-ones walking straight into an abyss of perpetual debt and even harder knowing that they were condemnig their children to the same fate.

Along the way, as economic conditions became more obvious, and our government’s role in perpatuating fraud and protecting the guilty at the expense of the innocent became more clear, finally, it appeared the cavalry might have arrived. FedUpUSA owes a debt of gratitute for Rick Santelli’s loss of composure on CNBC TV in February of 2009. What we had failed to accomplish, seemed to occur overnight: people started awakening from their stupor. ‘Tea Parties’ started springing up overnight in response to what can only be described as the cries of a modern-day Paul Revere, people got up off their couches and started taking their message to the streets.

Our work, however, is not over; it has just begun. Unless we address the ROOT of the problem, we cannot hope to derail the fraud and stop the corruption. The root of the problem is, no more and no less, our economic system. Our economic system is based upon a lie. The is that MONEY = DEBT. Our Founding Fathers knew this and proscribed a NON-debt denominated monetary system. This was intended to be money, the quantity of which was controled ONLY by the production of people – their human labors.

Absolutely all the corruption that now exists in our government can be traced back to the nature of our current financial system. Until or unless this system is changed, there is no hope to ever get out of debt.

Thankfully, there are some very smart people who have figured this out – and not only realize the source of the catastrophe we now face, but have come up with a solution:

Freedom’s Vision – In a Nutshell…

“It’s not WHAT backs our money, it’s WHO controls the QUANTITY!”
-Bill Still

Private Central Banks control the production of money in the United States, not our Congress as dictated by the United States Constitution. This has given them the POWER to control our economy and our politicians.

It is critical WHO controls the money system which is different than the banking system.

The system of backing our money with DEBT ensures that the system will fail, we are at or approaching the mathematical limits now. This system is controlled by Bankers, not Congress.

The quantity of money and debt is wildly out of control.

History shows that severe upheaval and “other events,” such as wars, follow such times. It is our intention to break that chain so that those other events do not occur.

Freedom’s Vision is comprised of three parts – Economic Reform, Political Reform, and Future’s Vision.

Our immediate mission is to:

“Enact monetary and political reform capable of transitioning our economy from its current debt and derivative entangled state to a prosperous & sustainable system that works to keep the quantity of money under control for the very long term.

Monetary Reform ends the process of debt backing our nation’s money at the Federal level, it establishes procedures to correctly measure our economy and through transparency coupled with checks and balances works with Congress to ensure that the quantity of money never gets out of control.

While the systems of control are simple and intuitive, the very difficult part is transitioning our economy from its current debt saturated and derivative entangled state to a sustainable and prosperous future.

Significant tax money would be returned to the people used to pay down debt for those who have it, thus deleveraging and providing immediate relief to all citizens. This first step also makes the banks more healthy.

Through the unique procedures contained within, the debts would be brought back to manageable limits on all levels. Derivatives would be untangled. All banks would survive the transition and come out of the transition ready to do meaningful and REAL business.

All businesses would immediately benefit as the economy rapidly, but in a controlled fashion, cleanses away the debt and leverage that is holding us back.

State economies will be cleansed and will take more control over their own destiny through the use of state chartered banks that will provide funding and bank control for that state, enabling low and no interest loans for the needs of the state much as the Bank of North Dakota has since the year 1919.

The dollar system that emerges would look and feel to most people almost exactly as it looks and feels today, but without the problems associated with never ending inflation.

Political Reform works to separate special interest money from politics, thus ensuring that long term decision making can be made and that WHO controls the quantity of money remains in the hands of the people.

The short list of benefits can be found here – Benefits of Freedom's Vision..

Swarm Politics is our method of implementing Freedom’s Vision.

Future’s Vision comes into play as the transition of our economy to Freedom’s Vision is being implemented. This third piece of the puzzle provides long term goals and focus for our nation working towards creating real and meaningful jobs while moving our nation ahead with purpose.

None of these procedures are yet set in stone, there is still much room to improve and work on them. We will be working towards creating actual legal language as we proceed. We need your help to create and enact Freedom’s Vision so that we secure our money, our freedom, our future.

Morning Update/ Market Thread 3/9

Good Morning,

Equities are down this morning, below is a 60 minute chart of the DOW futures on the left and 5 minute version of the S&P futures on the right:



Please look at the chart on the left. McHugh is seeing 5 complete or nearly complete waves on the day only charts, on this chart it looks pretty clear to me like we’re near the end of wave 4 and may have one more wave higher. The key is to watch that lower trendline to see if it breaks, less than about 10,500 on the DOW would be a breakdown. If not, we could be heading to the 1,150 area of the SPX. Either way, we are getting very close to the end of this pattern.

The dollar is up this morning, bonds are down, oil and gold are both down significantly.

The only data out this morning are the Redbook and Goldman’s ICSC store sales, both took a jump in the year over year figures to the +3% range which is simply a misreporting of the facts. I would think of these more as “sales at existing stores that remain open” and not an indication of what is happening in the economy where state sales taxes are still down nearly 5% yoy.

I did a radio interview with John Gold of AR-15 yesterday, was a fun show, and now John is a supporter of Freedom's Vision. Today I'll be talking to B.J. Lawson, a Congressional candidate in the 4th district of North Carolina. I'll try to get links up as they are available.

How are Americans doing for retirement?

43% have less than $10k for retirement

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The percentage of American workers with virtually no retirement savings grew for the third straight year, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The percentage of workers who said they have less than $10,000 in savings grew to 43% in 2010, from 39% in 2009, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute's annual Retirement Confidence Survey. That excludes the value of primary homes and defined-benefit pension plans.

Workers who said they had less than $1,000 jumped to 27%, from 20% in 2009.

Confidence in ability to save enough for a comfortable retirement hovered at 16% of respondents, the second lowest point in the 20-year history of the survey.

A drop in the bucket
"Americans' attitudes toward retirement have clearly tracked the economy the last couple of years, and that seems to be the case in 2010," said Jack VanDerhei, EBRI's research director and co-author of the survey, in a statement.

The percentage of workers who said they have saved for retirement fell to 69%, from 75% in 2009.

While VanDerhei attributed the decline in current savings rates to job losses, mortgage problems and the suspension of corporate 401(k) matches in 2009, he said the economy isn't entirely to blame.

"In previous years, there were a whole lot of people who had nothing to begin with," said VanDerhei.

The gap between what Americans have saved and what they'd need for retirement is forcing workers to prolong their working years.

The ultimate guide to retirement
According to the survey, 24% of workers said they have postponed their planned retirement age in the past year, up from 14% in 2008.

But even as fears over health care costs and job prospects mount, the survey found that only 46% of workers have tried to calculate what they need for a comfortable standard of living in their golden years.

"People just don't want to think about this," said VanDerhei. "Everybody thinks they're too young to think about it, until suddenly they're too old to do anything about it."

Defined benefit plans are too expensive so you were sold that 401k was the way to go. How’s that working out? The truth is that as a society we are prioritizing the profits of a few at the expense of the many. Retirement for post-peak Baby Boomers will not be as pleasant for those who grew up with standard financing, a stable job, and a defined benefit retirement. Instead, trailing edge Boomers have shattered 401k plans, homes that are underwater after being refinanced and refinanced, and thus many will be needing government help at a time when the math of money is growing exponentially and the government is nearing the end of its ability to continue the rate of growth at which they spend. It’s going to be interesting for sure, I hope you’re ready.

The Germans are calling for quick regulation of derivatives? LOL, I think that horse hasn’t just left the barn, he’s now in another part of the world altogether! Hey Angela… two words - Freedom’s Vision!
March 9 (Bloomberg) -- German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker called for urgent regulation of credit-default swaps to shore up the euro area and prevent a rerun of the Greek financial crisis.

Merkel, speaking to reporters in Luxembourg today before Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou meets President Barack Obama in Washington, said the European Union must take the lead in curbing the “very speculative elements” of derivatives trading, going beyond previous Group of 20 nations agreements. The U.S. must also be on board, she said.

“We’re of the opinion that a quick implementation of actions in the area of CDS has to happen,” Merkel said. Citing “ongoing speculation against euro-region countries,” she called for the “fastest possible” implementation of new rules. Europe must “do everything to avoid unhealthy speculation,” said Juncker, who heads the euro-area finance ministers group.

Funny, just hunting around the news somehow this little snippet just jumped out at me:
Elsewhere in credit markets, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. led the busiest day for European corporate bond issuance for eight weeks, Bloomberg data show. Goldman is selling seven-year notes in the bank’s first deal in the currency since October.

Hey Angela, if you are serious about lowering risk, take a look at who’s pushing debt in the neighborhood!

I know it hasn’t been that long since we spun this tune, but somehow I feel it’s appropriate for people who create more havoc around the world than drug pushers ever could… Goldman = Debt Pusher.

Steppenwolf – The Pusher:

Monday, March 8, 2010

Morning Update/ Market Thread 3/8

Good Morning,

It’s a Monday, so what direction are markets moving? Yes, up, but only slightly so far. Below is a 60 minute chart of the DOW on the left, and a 5 minute chart of the S&P on the right:



Both the dollar and bonds are down, oil and gold are up.

There are no economic reports today and it is light on reports most of the week. Consumer Sentiment is released on Friday.

Below is a good article on Greece’s hidden debt problem. Think they are the only country with that problem? Think again, and America is no exception. What went on to hide the debt and how American companies helped to hide it is simply disgusting, embarrassing, shameful, and far more importantly, dangerous:
Greece's hidden debt soaring

The Greek debt tragedy currently unfolding -- the country's on-balance-sheet debt is 13 times its gross domestic product -- may be just the tip of the iceberg.

More troubling, according to a report out last week, is the off-balance-sheet debt owed by the country, and its fellow, over-indebted nations Portugal, Italy, Ireland and Spain, the so-called PIIGS, representing the five-nation acronym.

The off-balance-sheet debt, where countries guarantee the debt of private developments, many of which had gone bust, could multiply the problem many times -- putting further pressure on the euro, the report said.

Gordon Long, founder of a private venture-capital fund, said in an investor note that there is more than $600 trillion in notational value in the global derivative market, with $437 trillion of it tied to interest rate swaps.

"Any credit event could trigger a cascading event," Long wrote in the report. "It does not have to be default; it could be a downgrade in swap contracts that would do the trick for a collateral call. Something is going to cause it to topple, whether it's a situation in Dubai, Greece or New Jersey."

With this as a backdrop, is it any wonder that the US dollar has been on a strong run since last November against the euro and the British pound? Also, gold versus the euro has risen 16 percent in the same time frame.

Major investors also have a record number of future bets that the euro will depreciate against the dollar over the short term.

"The next 12 months could be very dramatic for the Eurozone," said Robert Chapman, publisher of "The International Forecaster."

" I am seeing many sovereign defaults for the PIIGS as well as in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet satellite countries running into 2011," Chapman added.

International finance-industry estimates have Dubai's sovereign debt load, thanks to the off-balance-sheet debt, exploding to nearly four times its originally reported $80 billion, as other government-backed projects have gone bad after Dubai World's default in late November.

If the off-balance-sheet debt continues to come due, expect the euro to continue to fall in value and the US dollar to gain power. That will, in turn, hurt US companies looking to export goods.

How Greece's off-balance-sheet problem grew is a tragedy in itself. For example:

* In 2005, Greece wanted to develop a Mediterranean beachfront location for tourists but didn't want to float infrastructure bonds to pay for the development because its debt load was over the ceiling threshold set by the EU. So it brought in a Wall Street bank, like Goldman Sachs, which suggested it establish a Special Purpose Vehicle.

* This SPV in essence allowed the public development company to finance the infrastructure project with the Greek government guaranteeing the debt. The project moved forward with no impact on Greece's credit rating -- until the housing economy went south and the developer declared bankruptcy. Greece now has to add the debt to its balance sheet.

So when this scenario is played out a thousand times across the Eurozone, the bond ratings of the sovereign countries are lowered, thereby increasing their borrowing costs and eventually leading to a possible default.
This is how the Greek debt has grown 12 times over the initial numbers it had on the books with the European Union. Iceland and Dubai are the test studies for how the Europeans may deal with the idea of socializing private debt through public funding.

Dubai World's default, which had government backing, put the world on notice that sovereign credit-worthiness was a concern.

And just yesterday, Icelanders overwhelmingly voted "no" in a referendum on a $5.3 billion deal to compensate Britain and the Netherlands for deposits lost in a collapsed Icelandic bank. With daily riots in Greece over government tax policy changes, this may end poorly.

PIIG(ing) out

Portugal, Italy, Ireland Greece and Spain are among the European nations suffering under large sovereign debt loads.

* Countries took Wall St.’s advice and backed private construction debt for infrastructure projects.

* After project contractors go bankrupt the debt burden falls to the guarantor, which is the country.

*Country’s ability to borrow is constrained by higher loan costs due to increased debt limits.

This shifting of massive undisclosed risk onto sovereign states is nothing but a crime against humanity, plain and simple. The people responsible are no better than gangsters, in fact are worse as they are creating far more damage to others. They are pushers of debt, and again, their damage is far more widespread and destructive than pushers of drugs.

Of course the European Union has provisions against bailing out countries. Was that all show to build confidence in the new Euro? Of course it was. Will the central bankers who created it step in to keep their money machine in tact? Of course they will:

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- European leaders are in talks to establish a lender of last resort and limits on credit-default swaps to bolster the euro area and prevent a repeat of the Greek financial crisis.

Plans for what may become the European Monetary Fund and a German-French push to curb “speculators” using derivatives to bet against Greece’s debt are to be ready by June, officials in Berlin and Brussels said today.

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble “believes we must learn from the crisis,” his spokesman Michael Offer told reporters in Berlin. Greece is “the trigger” for efforts to avoid similar crises in the future, he said.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and her fellow European leaders are shifting from rhetoric in support of Greece to regulation as they seek to defend the euro and rally behind coordinated measures in the wake of the global financial crisis.

“Speculators and the markets should know that solidarity means something and that, if there’s a problem, we are there,” French President Nicolas Sarkozy said in Paris yesterday after talks with Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou. “The sooner we say that and the more firmly we say that, the more rapidly we settle the problem.”


More and more socialization built upon the back of debt for the profit of a few. Hey, the people of Iceland did the right thing, congratulations! Tell the central bankers to pound sand!

CNN ran a good interview of Jim Chanos talking about China and what is going on over there in real estate. Worth a listen:

Jim Chanos on China:


Let’s talk about the markets.

Unfortunately, I see a lot of people jumping the bull market gun. The RUT and the NASDAQ made new highs but yet the DOW, the S&P, the Transports, and the NDX have not. Yes, it possibly changes the outlook if they go onto new highs, BUT, what is happening with some making it and others not making it at the same time is called a divergence! This is exactly the type of divergence that occurs at or near major tops. A healthy market makes new highs together, and they do it on volume.

This market reached EXTREME internal readings on Friday, and I am therefore issuing a warning to anyone who is long the market to be very protective. Here are just a few of the indications – the put/call ratio is at a place normally seen at tops, the VIX dove showing great complacency, the McClelland Oscillator is in extreme high readings normally associated with tops, the Advance/ Decline line is at extreme readings normally associated with tops, and finally, the number of 52 week highs on the NYSE reached 458 on Friday, an extreme reserved only for major tops. For comparison, the top in ’07 had 383 new highs, the top in January of this year had 316.

We are close. The valuations are extreme, you have been warned. So, is this now such a “managed” economy that the markets can’t lose more than 10%? Is this a “new era?” An era where the vast majority of the market is owned by semi-government entangled entities who own so much of the market that there can be no serious sellers? Because that is what I am hearing, but I can assure you that a one way miracle market has NOT been created. Valuations do matter, the debt pushers' math does not work and their debt backed games are going to unravel.

I’m just sitting back and watching history unfold. Only a fool would go long into the above statistics.

Once again, I must share a passage of my book about the fifth bubble stage according to Hyman Minsky:
Stage Five – Market Reversal/Insider Profit Taking:
Some wise voices will stand up and say that the bubble can no longer continue. They argue that long run fundamentals, the ratios and measurements, defy sound economic practices. In the bubble, these arguments disappear within one over-riding fact – the price is still rising. The voices of the wise are ignored by the greedy who justify the now insane prices with the euphoric claim that the world has fundamentally changed and this new world means higher prices. Then along comes the cruelest lie of them all, “There will most likely be a ‘soft’ landing!”

Traffic - Dear Mr. Fantasy

Sunday, March 7, 2010

Uncle Jay Explains the News...

Yes it's time once again, boys & girls, for Uncle Jay...

Swarm Grand Opening Thank You - Conference Call This Evening...




Please let me take this opportunity to thank each of your for participating in our Swarm Grand Opening Weekend! We very subtly began the snowball rolling down hill by spreading the word on Facebook.

This effort resulted in a dramatic rise in both Facebook and SwarmUSA.com site traffic. The number of group Friends on Facebook nearly doubled and the number of registered Swarm members jumped from 135 when the target was announced to 182 as I type, that's an increase of 47 members or a 35% jump!

Hey, it may not sound like a big number with our deficits running in the TRILLIONS, but it's a great start, numbers that can easily grow exponentially as people figure out that exponential growth in debt is exactly the reason we're in the position we are. As the math gets worse, more people will find their way to Freedom's Vision.

Don't forget that there are "Secret of Oz" movies to give away, and even 4 Gold Memberships to Karl Denninger's Ticker Forum. As you spread the word to your friends that there are REAL solutions, have them let you know that they are registered for the Swarm site and copy down their user name. Once you get 5 user names, send them to me and we'll ship you a free movie. Get 15, and we'll give you a one year membership worth $150 to Karl's site!

Tomorrow's target is going to be in a different category. We're going to hit some radio show hosts via email and ask for them to get us on air or at least talk about SwarmUSA and Freedom's Vision. I also want to gently start nudging other bloggers to support and write about our movement.

Did you see the beginning rendition of our "Notable Supporters" page? How about our new Swarm Blogs? Check them out. Right now we have me, Bill Still, AZRainman, and Damon Vrabel set up and ready to go. Damon is going to be quite a spokesman on behalf of issuing non debt-backed money, please check his latest article and video out if you haven't.

Of course the blog's focus will be on subjects surrounding Freedom's Vision, but we also like to have fun while we do it, so please stop by the blogs and the Hive forum to participate and make comments.

Daryl Klein, our PAC Treasurer gave the following status report of our PAC funds:
"We are at the point where I am about to file our first financial statement with the Federal Election Commission. Without giving a line by line breakdown, in the months of Jan. and Feb. 2010 the American Party PAC received $870.38 in donations and has spent or committed $500 in promotional give away's for the Grand Opening of the SwarmUSA.com site and $18 on bank checks. This total does not reflect several dollars in Pay Pal charges so the remaining balance is slightly less than $352.38. As the National Treasurer is my suggestion that this email be forwarded to all swarm members with a request for donations. If we could get every member to donate at least $10 several times per year that should meet our current financial needs.RespectfullyDaryl E. Klein"

Both Daryl and I have also donated considerable personal funds in addition to massive amounts of time. Any donation to the PAC will be spent wisely and very much appreciated. Also, I have some high quality Swarm business cards and will send some to anyone who donates even a small amount to the PAC.

Our expenses will be increasing as the organization grows. I will be doing a minimum of 3 interviews this week and will be traveling later in the month. This type of activity is going to pick up and be necessary. We do have fundraising ideas for the future and will need state level volunteers for that. Speaking of states, please introduce yourself in the Hive under your respective state. Start speaking about getting organized on the state level.

Beginning at 6:00 PM Pacific time, 9:00 PM Eastern TODAY, I will be conducting an informal conference call. I will give a quick status report, solicit some Swarm strategy advice, and will then open the conversation up to any questions you may have on any subject. I'm willing to go as long as you are, so please stop by and give a listen but also please allow me moderate the discussion so that it doesn't become mob-rule.

To join in the call, please dial:

1-712-432-0075

When prompted, please enter the access code:

496770

I will record the call and place it in the Hive forum for those who miss it. To listen to the recording once it's up, call:

1-712-432-1085

Talk to you in a few minutes if you're available.

Thank you again for all your help in making our Grand Opening Swarm a success!

Nathan Martin