Thursday, July 21, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/21

Good Morning,

Equity futures are higher again this morning with the dollar sinking, bonds falling, oil rising, gold is higher, silver is flat, and most food commodities are lower.

Of note this morning is that the dollar has broken down from that small daily triangle I’ve been showing:

If it stays below that triangle, then it looks like it is ready to make a trip to the bottom of the larger descending wedge. That would put it near the all-time lows, it is open air beneath that as can be seen on this monthly chart:

We’ll see, if the dollar descends then oil will definitely rise along with everything else and that will eventually choke the economy, and thus it is somewhat self-limiting. Due to the self-limiting feature of the dollar being tied to commodities, then it takes a concerted effort to destroy the dollar, exactly what we’ve been experiencing. While the theatre of the absurd continues in D.C., the impossible math will still exist regardless of any “deal” that’s made (on behalf of the central bankers).

This morning Jobless Claims came in higher than expected again, at 418,000. That is up from last week’s 405k, which, of course, was revised higher. Not even close to job creation, here’s Econodope:
Layoffs remain stubbornly high though longer term trends may be improving if only slightly. Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 in the July 16 week to a 418,000 level that's slightly higher than expected (prior week revised 3,000 higher to 408,000). The July 16 week is the survey week for the household employment section of the monthly employment report and a comparison with the prior survey week of June 18 shows an improvement but a small one at 9,000. A comparison of four-week averages during the same two weeks shows a smaller 5,000 improvement, to 421,250 vs 426,250.

Other data include a 50,000 decline in continuing claims for the July 9 week to 3.698 million with the four-week average down 4,000 to 3.721 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is down one tenth to 2.9 percent.

There are no special factors skewing today's report with claims tied to the government shutdown in Minnesota adding up to no more than 1,750. The job market is still very tough though trends in this report hint at slight improvement from June's extremely disappointing employment report.

This is like listening to a multi-year broken record. The mainstream simply cannot admit that debt saturation has occurred and that attempting to force more debt into a saturated system results in higher unemployment. It’s mind numbing that we’re still caught in the central banker’s web of deceit.

Also mind numbing is how the situation at Fukushima is being handled. No real attempt at containment still, meanwhile radiation continues to pour into our environment where it winds up circling the globe. Here’s Arnie Gunderson with an update on the condition of the plant and also what is happening with what is now being called “black rain.”

Ex Japanese Nuclear Regulator Blames Radioactive Animal Feed on "Black Rain"

Stocks are looking and acting like they want to break out higher – from my perspective that is more tragic than if they follow a wave of deflation now. The markets are not free, they are not real, and they have never been more risk filled for the average investor. Again, my take is that we are all better off if you ignore the markets and find something real and productive to directly invest your money in. This is a throwback to the way business used to be financed, and it is the future if we don’t want to be ruled by central bankers who tell us nothing but lies.