Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 8/24

Good Morning,

Equity futures are close to even this morning following yesterday’s fluff. The dollar is down, bonds are down a little, oil is flat, gold & silver are lower, while food commodities are flat as a tortilla – corn or wheat, doesn’t matter.

The people in this world who I respect the least, those who run the Mortgage Banker’s Association (okay, make that second to last), reported that the Purchase Index fell 5.7% in the prior week, and according to them hit the lowest level in modern record keeping. Here’s Econogullible:
July home sales proved disappointing and MBA's purchase index points to further bad news for August. The purchase index fell steeply for a second week, down 5.7 percent in the August 19 week and now at its lowest level in 15 years. Low interest rates aren't helping with applications falling across the board including a 15 percent fall for jumbo loans and an eight percent fall for government housing programs. Low rates had triggered a surge in refinancing applications which however eased back 1.7 percent in the latest week. Rates moved slightly higher in the week with the 30-year up seven basis points to 4.39 percent.

Right, record low. And we’re supposed to believe the wild refinancing number last week, but this week it’s negative? To say that they are making stuff up would be kind. To call their report a lie or outright fraud would be in line with reality.

The July Durable Goods report shows mysterious improvement. I don’t trust this report either and also realize that “goods” in their mind are always first measured in dollars, and to make them “real” they correct using inflation data that is simply not real. So, at this stage we are reporting this stuff just to keep an eye on the criminal enterprise that is the “Fed,” not that we believe or act on any data they produce. Here’s Econopray with the goods:
A monthly surge in new orders for motor vehicles & parts, the best in eight years, headlines a strong durable goods report for July. New orders for durable goods surged 4.0 percent in the month with the motor vehicle component up 11.5 percent in what appears to be the well anticipated Japanese-related snap back. Aircraft orders, which nearly always show wide month-to-month swings, rose 43 percent and together with motor vehicles made for a 14.6 percent jump in the transportation category. Excluding transportation, new orders rose a solid 0.7 percent following 0.6 and 0.8 percent gains in the two prior months.

A surge in overall shipments is another big plus for this report, up 2.5 percent on top of June's 1.1 percent gain. Primary metals show a third straight month of shipment strength as do motor vehicles and aircraft. Capital goods also show gains in shipments in what offers an early signal of strength for third-quarter business investment.

Other details show a steady 0.8 percent gain for overall inventories with unfilled orders showing an increasing rate of build, from 0.3 percent in June to 0.7 in July. But the one factor that limits the impact of this report on the economic outlook is that it's data for July. Early looks at August conditions, that is from the New York, Philly, and Richmond Feds, show significant contraction making it too soon to say whether manufacturing, which has been the economy's backbone, is once again re-accelerating.

Please… auto sales surging? Really? Sold to them.

The FHFA House Price Index is released at 10 Eastern this morning, and as usual will be reported inside of today’s Daily Thread.

So, the markets zoom ahead of the Jackson Hole “Fed” meeting announcement. Wow, really, can’t wait. What are they going to do? More QE? As if that has accomplished anything positive so far? Is there really political support for that? I’m not expecting nearly as much as the market seems to be, but know that regardless of what they do, or don’t do, the impossible math will continue to get worse as long as they are in control of the production of our money. That control provides them the string that makes the politicians into puppets, and the people into slaves.

Did Paul Krugman really say, "People on twitter might be joking, but in all seriousness, we would see a bigger boost in spending and hence economic growth if the earthquake had done more damage?"

Space aliens and now this. And these are the guys held up as experts to the world and given Nobel Prizes?

Stupid is as stupid does, Forrest Krugman. This is called “The Broken Window Fallacy” (thanks Mick).

So many myths out there, so little time. Run Forrest, RUN!

Did you see the pictures of Warren Buffett meeting with Obama to tell him what he thinks of the economy?

What a piece of work, both of them. That they would even listen to criminal Buffett is one slap in the face of the people (don’t buy his BS “tax the billionaires” cover), but that they would tout the President listening to, or acting upon, an obvious special interest party shows blatantly once again that this is a special interest government. I can almost see the strings in that photo.