Friday, September 2, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/2 - Lack of Labor Day Edition…

Good Morning,

Since the Emperor has already been shown to be wearing no clothes, further proof of that fact supports the need for more of the same? Uh, okay.

Stocks were already diving overnight, but then tumbled on the release of the Employment Situation Report which produced headline numbers of ZERO Nonfarm Payroll jobs, while the rate stayed at a supposed 9.1%. Of course we know better, the true numbers rival the Great Depression numbers, those falling for the massaging of the numbers are simply central banker dupes.

In addition to stocks plunging, bonds are zooming, the dollar is down, oil is down, both gold & silver are zooming, and food commodities are lower. Again, this action shows the truth (except for the bond market), in that this is a monetary phenomena… it is there that you find the root of the unemployment.

Don’t be fooled by the talk of gold backed money, remember the “Roaring Twenties?” They roared despite being on a gold standard at the time. What really matters is not WHAT backs your money, but rather WHO controls its production.

Can you see the following conversation?

“Gee, Mr. President, what number for NFP would be the right number to sell your special interest proposed ‘jobs package’ without causing unnecessary alarm amongst our contributors?”

“Uh, well, how about zero?”

“Oh snap! Good choice, Mr. President. I’ll get the boys right on that!”

Of course they aren’t even bright enough to come up with something convincing. A zero, EXACTLY, number? Come on, do they think we are all stupid and no one knows how to do math? Look, the odds of producing that number dead on are extremely long if you are in fact using any form of scientific method to gather your data. To me this joke of a number is further proof that none of it is real anymore. Sorry, but while I was born at night, it wasn’t last night. Some advice for the clowns… next time at least fake it a little more cleverly.

Here’s Econogullible’s spin:
Apparently, the recent federal debt ceiling debate fiasco and stock market decline spooked businesses to put a hold on hiring. Payroll jobs were unchanged in August, following a revised 85,000 increase in July, and revised 20,000 in June. The market consensus (updated Thursday afternoon) called for a 60,000 increase for the latest month. Revisions for June and July were down net 58,000. As in recent months, private sector employment was a little less weak since government jobs pulled down the total. Private nonfarm payrolls edged up 17,000 in August, following a 156,000 gain in July and 75,000 increase in June. The August figure came in sharply lower than the median estimate for a 75,000 increase.

In the private sector, goods-producing jobs edged down while service-providing jobs rose modestly. Goods-producing jobs slipped 3,000, following a 52,000 rise in July. Manufacturing jobs dipped 3,000 after a 36,000 boost the month before. Construction employment declined 5,000 after increasing 7,000. Mining expanded 6,000, following an 8,000 gain in July.

The public sector continued to contract as government employment fell 17,000, following a 71,000 drop in July.

Earnings growth fell back from the auto-sector induced jump in July. Average hourly earnings slipped 0.1 percent after jumping 0.5 percent in July. The market median estimate was for a 0.2 percent increase. The average workweek for all workers in August edged down to 34.2 hours from 34.3 in July. The consensus had called for 34.3 hours.

From the household survey, the unemployment rate posted at 9.1 percent, equaling the prior month and expectations.

Today's report clearly shows that momentum in the labor market has stalled. The curiosity is that while hiring has come to a standstill, layoffs have not picked up. Still, today's news is not good news for the economy and places more emphasis on the importance of President Barack Obama's upcoming plan for job creation and on whether the Fed will engage in QE3. The odds of another round of quantitative easing just went up.

Uh, huh. Catch that last part? Guarantee you that pretend conversation above is not that far off the mark. Are you scared enough yet to support more pathetic special interest rob you policies? Disgusting to watch the charade.

Here’s the entire phony report from the BLS which, when the fall of Rome occurs, will hopefully be replaced with a real agency that works in reality instead of political kabuki land:
Employment August 2011

When looking under the hood of this report, there is nothing but troubling numbers to be found. For example, in just one month the number of part time workers rose by 400,000. In order to produce zero job growth then, that must mean that 400,000 full-time jobs no longer exist, right? Oh, and last month’s number were revised sharply lower too. And that’s the truth about what’s happening, discourage workers are no longer counted, and those that still have jobs have either taken large pay cuts or are working part-time. The true statistics are being masked by manipulating who is counted in what category. The truth can be seen clearly in the following three charts which I’m surprised the “Fed” still makes available. The first one is the Civilian Employment Population Ratio – it clearly shows that all the fluff jobs created by financial engineering are now gone, as in all of them. Take a look at the time frame of expansion, and then how contraction coincides with reaching the debt saturation point:

The second chart shows the Mean Duration of Unemployment. Unbelievable that this chart doesn’t receive more attention. Again, the creation of debt via all forms of financial engineering works to add jobs until the debt saturation point is reached, but from that point forward the addition of more debt works to destroy jobs and real productivity:

And finally, despite the fact that our population has doubled since WWII, today we employ fewer people total in Manufacturing than we did in the year 1942!

Sick. And if you like that, then keep supporting the current paradigm until you, too, are either no longer employed or become “under-employed.”

Turning back to the BLS’s report, we see on the “Alternate Table” that U-6 unemployment, the one most closely resembling numbers of the past, remains stubbornly above 16%, with the seasonally adjusted number rising from 16.1% to 16.2%:

The phony “Birth/Death Model” created another 87,000 phony and nonexistent jobs:

Amazing that with all their “models” that ZERO would be their overall number. Yeah, that’s the ticket.

Shadow Stats knows what's real and what's not. Note that his number is still trending up while .gov numbers are trending down. He believes real unemployment is closer to 23% than it is to 9%.

Since we’re discussing things that aren’t real, might as well look at the “markets.” Below is a four hour chart showing a large rising wedge. The Elliott wavers are thinking that may be a wave 4, if the bottom boundary is broken then wave 5 down will likely be underway:

Please, oh please, won’t you give me some more QE? Of course this is clearly showing the root problem of WHO it is that’s in control of producing the money. The private banks are currently in control, so all forms of bailout benefit them while leaving the vast majority of others in the dirt. This will not change until the people take back control of that privilege that rightly belongs to everyone equally. That’s the root of the problem, just so that we can get down to what’s really wrong.