Thursday, September 22, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 9/22 - “Twisting” to the Winds of Change Edition…

Good Morning,

Equity markets are still plummeting following Berspankme’s “Twist” and admission that the economy has “considerable downside risk.” The dollar is substantially higher and is breaking through important overhead resistance, the long bond market has gone wild, oil is plummeting, gold & silver are plunging, as are food commodities.

Remember that with “QE” and now with “Twist,” all the markets are not real, they are not free. What they are is 100% false, 100% manipulated. This type of action is exactly why I’ve been advising people to get real and stay real. Key support in the markets is now broken, the sideways flag of the past five weeks is now clearly broken to the downside and the flag target is down in the 1,000ish area on the S&P:

While the move in the long bond is something to behold, again, it is not real. In fact, with the “Fed” now buying and twisting the entire market, there is no way to really know what is real in this space. Desperate people do desperate things is what comes to mind. And I can guarantee you that what they tell you they are doing publically is just the tip of the iceberg – Yes, I am saying that they are outright lying and fraudulently covering up their trail, they have been for quite some time as the numbers simply don’t add up.

Below is a ten year chart of TLT, the 20 year bond fund. It topped in late 2008, and then collapsed into 2009. With “QE” and all the intervention into the bond market, it has not only regained that peak, but is now far beyond it. I can guarantee you that this is NOT sustainable. Eventually all the money printing and “Twisting” will come to an end, and when it does, this market will collapse into at least the normal range for rates. That said, however, as long as the current criminals remain in power, this is their base and they will protect it at all costs:

And soooo, I’ve been talking for quite some time about the “other events” that are in progress, I think we are about to see more of them, and more significant events. If you have already gotten real, then you know that the paper markets no longer directly affect you. But don’t be complacent because their collapse WILL affect you in other ways – you still need to be careful not to get caught up in those “other events” that are accelerating in pace and scope.

Still, as I look through the media I see very little of meaning… people are still way off the root causes of the impossible math and debt saturation. It is the job, then, of those “other events” to do the cleansing that an ordinary wave of deflation cannot accomplish. Look for this cleansing, it is coming, you can feel it getting closer now as what is being tried by those in power increasingly smacks of desperation.

Weekly Jobless Claims missed expectations once again, coming in at 423,000 with the prior week revised higher yet again, of course. Once macroeconomic debt saturation has set in, there is only one way to create REAL jobs (versus made up phony statistical ones), and that is to remove debt. The more debt you remove, the more jobs that will be able to be supported by the real economy. Of course removing debt is not easy, that’s why I wrote Freedom’s Vision, to offer a blueprint. Here’s Econoclueless on the Jobless Claims:
Fewer Americans applied for initial jobless claims in the September 17 week though today's report is mixed. The week-to-week change, at minus 9,000, is a good indication but the 423,000 level is 3,000 higher than the Econoday consensus and reflects a 4,000 upward revision to the prior week to 432,000. Another negative is the fifth straight rise in the four-week average, though the latest gain is minimal to 421,000 vs a revised 420,500 in the prior week. Still, a look back to mid-August shows the four-week average at 403,500 in a comparison that points to trouble for the September employment report.

Continuing claims, in data for the September 10 week, fell 28,000 to 3.727 million with the four-week average down 7,000 to 3.742 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers, at 3.0 percent, is unchanged for the six straight week.

The Labor Department reports no special factors in either the current week or in the upward revision to the prior week when the East coast was cleaning up from Hurricane Irene. Markets, where risk-aversion is very heavy right now, aren't getting any lift from today's report.

LOL, the markets “aren’t getting any lift from today’s report?” That’s the best they can do? Mind numbing drivel from the people in the economics field – they simply do not understand what is happening.

Buckle up, the fraud is going to come out, but it is not going to leave willingly. Risk is everywhere, you must find something real or some real activity in which to participate with your money or you will eventually be stripped of what you now consider an asset. The winds of change are in the air.