Thursday, October 13, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 10/13 - What’s Next Edition?

Good Morning,

Equity futures are lower this morning, with the dollar higher, bonds higher, oil lower, gold & silver lower, and food commodities taking back some recent gains.

Weekly Jobless Claims rose from 401,000 in the prior week to 404,000. Of course that 401k was revised higher, and the mainstream then compares apples to oranges only if it puts a positive spin on the headline so they can say the number didn’t rise, it was flat. Whatever, numbers above 350k are job losing propositions, the real economy has been, and continues, to shed jobs. Here’s Econocomplicit:
Two steps forward and one step backwards may be a good description for weekly jobless claims. Initial claims slipped a very slight 1,000 in the October 8 week to 404,000 with the October 1 week revised 4,000 higher to 405,000. But these levels are still over 400,000 and are disappointment given the brief dip to 395,000 in the Septmeber 24 week. But the four-week average is definitely moving in the right direction, down 7,000 for a third straight dip to a 408,000 level that is more than 10,000 below the month-ago comparison. This is a good initial indication for the October employment report.

Continuing claims fell 55,000 to 3.670 million with the four week average, at 3.724 million, down 25,000 from a month ago. Declines in continuing claims generally point to improvement in the labor market though they also reflect the expiration of benefits as the long-term unemployed find themselves on their own. The unemployment rate for insured workers slipped one tenth to 2.9 percent.

The Labor Department says there are no special factors in the October 8 week though this week's Columbus Day federal holiday did lead to partial estimates for a number of states including California. Today's report points to steady conditions in the labor market but probably won't trigger much of a rally for the stock market.

In fact what’s happening to continuing claims is that people have been unemployed for so long, historically long(!), that they are dropping off the backend of their benefits. And without Congressional action soon, the Emergency Unemployment benefits are set to expire, that will cause more than 4 million people to fall off the roles in the next year. Obama put an extension of those benefits onto his “Jobs Bill” as if unemployment benefits were about jobs. Did you know that his “Jobs Bill” also included a 5.6% tax on income in excess of $1 million? Needless to say, it went nowhere and was voted down yesterday, this morning Obama is talking about splitting the bill in two in order to attempt to pass part.

That “Jobs” bill is nothing but impossible math on top of impossible math – as has been all efforts to date attempting to cure the impossible math. You can’t cure debt saturation with more debt. And because you’re trapped inside of the central banker box where everything benefits them, you can’t raise taxes or you cut off your hand to spite your face. Impossible math just is – you can work to make it possible within the central banker paradigm, but that leads to deflation and thus it is impossible to fix anything as long as you remain inside their box.

So let’s examine this Herman Cain fellow – does he know how to do math? Former Burger King and Godfather’s Pizza executive, he went onto head the Kansas City “Fed.” Didn’t see anything wrong with the “fed” setup and still thinks Alan Greenspan was great. His “9-9-9” proposal would in his words be “revenue neutral.”

Hmmm, does revenue neutral fix the impossible math in anyway whatsoever? So, even it is were revenue neutral, what in the heck is the point of all this?

I can almost assure you that his business interests and his contributor’s businesses will be located in those “economic empowerment zones.” And remember, his sales tax would be in addition to state and local sales taxes. Also note the resistance to change here – if there is no benefit, where’s the motivation to change? Smoke and Mirrors, Cain’s 999 plan is really no plan at all, and calling it “revenue neutral” only shines the light on the fact that Mr. Cain doesn’t ‘do’ math.

Then he equates this, somehow, with “Jobs, jobs, jobs!” As if there’s any connection whatsoever with revenue neutral and jobs. Delusional is what that is.

While I don’t know Cain personally, I can generalize about people who run big companies and go on to work as lackeys for the “Fed.” Most are narcissists who believe that the “fruits” of the planet and of people’s labors are theirs for the picking. They think of themselves as job “creators” not realizing that their job actually worked to create the debt saturated condition we’re in today. Cain still doesn’t see, recognize, or acknowledge debt saturation, no “Fed” members do and they especially won’t acknowledge their role in making it so.

Speaking of impossible math, our trade deficit grew in August to $45.6 Billion from the prior $44.8 Billion. We’ve been running trade deficits for decades now, an unsustainable situation that is adding to the pressures present with the impossible math.

So what’s next? TARP, QE1, QE2, the “Twist” (long rates already back to pre-twist levels), Europe creates a massive fund to “bail banks and governments out… (but not actual people)” debt on top of debt. Again, what’s the next insane iteration? Because they need one and they need it now to keep the impossible math from imploding upon itself.

Market going up, oh boy, for four days in a row? LOL times trillions, and trillions, and trillions PLUS leverage that with about 600 trillion in derivatives and I’m rolling on the floor laughing at anyone who thinks they are participating in a real or viable marketplace. Real change is coming, and it won’t be coming from behind a teleprompter.