Thursday, October 6, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 10/6 - Life on the Jobless Plateau Edition…

Futures are close to even after being higher overnight. The dollar, however, is substantially higher - a yellow light to those chasing the rally following the VIX buy signal. On the other hand, bonds are lower, oil is higher, gold & silver are higher, and food commodities are less palatable as they bounce off of support.

Weekly Jobless Claims came in right on the Jobless Plateau at 401,000 where the statistics have lived for well over a year now. Of course there are real people behind those numbers which are evidence that no real job growth has occurred for many years. The only job growth you will find is on paper and coming from the lips of elected officials trying to take credit for the jobs that “would have been lost” had they not stimulated (ruined) the economy. Here’s Econoplicit, note the revision higher to last week’s data, you knew that was coming – but somehow they didn’t:
Jobless claims are pointing to little September-to-August change in the labor market. Initial claims for the October 1 week total 401,000 vs the Econoday consensus of 410,000. Cutting into this difference is a 4,000 upward revision to the prior week to 395,000. The four-week average is 414,000 which is slightly lower than the month-ago comparison, but this indication is clouded by a nearly 20,000 increase in the direct September-to-August comparison of the Labor Department's mid-month survey week.

Continuing claims likewise show no conclusive change. Data for the September 24 week show a 52,000 decrease to 3.700 million but the four-week average of 3.739 million is virtually unchanged with the month-ago comparison. Yet the unemployment rate for insured workers did tick lower, down to 2.9 percent following seven straight weeks at 3.0 percent.

Despite quarter-end issues, the Labor Department says there are no special factors whatsoever affecting today's report. Demand for the safety of Treasuries is easing in a move that suggests today's data may be improving expectations for tomorrow's monthly employment report.

If you want to see some of the actual faces behind those statistics, all you have to do now is turn on the television and there you will see many of them out on the streets in New York and across the nation, many of them now being arrested.

This Occupy Wall Street deal is starting to look a lot like the beginning of the protests in Egypt. Is this the real deal? I think it is, but I also know that it’s going to have to turn ugly, real ugly, in order to affect the type of change that those marching on the streets are looking for. They themselves don’t seem to really know how that change is going to occur, or what would be best for the nation as a whole. It’s a dangerous game, one in which I would not be surprised to see some sort of real nasty other event occur that shifts attention. Of course that will only stir the bee’s nest, so be careful if you are participating in these protests.

And if, by chance, they are successful in driving out the current power structure, then you must be careful, real careful, what you ask for in the wake of your actions. Job number one, it seems to me, is to restore the rightful rule of law. To do that you must hold those who are breaking the law to account, you must have a vehicle to legally and equitably clear out the debt saturated condition, and then you must set about putting in place a monetary and banking system that benefits all the people equally while separating special interest influence from government (look at Freedom’s Vision). Easy, no (LOL)? Here’s the place to start - Step 1 is to appoint William K. Black to begin special prosecutions.

Yes, life on the jobless plateau would be a lot easier to take if you knew Bulldog Bill Black was on the prowl.

Tomorrow comes the trumped up Employment numbers – somewhere on the to-do list in the post takedown phase comes the righting of all economic statistics, for that I nominate John Williams. Oh yeah, time to turn the page, Bill Still for President!