Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/23 - Tales Grow Taller on Down the Line Edition...

Good Morning,

Equity futures continue to tumble this morning, with the dollar rising sharply, bonds rising but then reversing, oil lower, gold & silver lower, and food commodities moving lower with wheat breaking a key support level that is the neckline of a very large head & shoulder’s pattern.

The morally crusted Mortgage Banker’s Association reports that Purchase Applications rose by a completely not believable 8.2% in one week last week, while the Refinancing Index fell by 4.0%. Sorry not one utterance out of their lips or off their computer is believable – 100% guarantee you that true statistics don’t move 8%, 20%, or 30% in one week. Again, this outfit is 100% hypocritical and they should not be allowed to produce self-interest driven economic statistics that are disseminated to the world. Here’s Econoplicit:
Highlights
Veteran's Day did blur mortgage application data with the subsequent week showing a strong rebound that puts the purchase index back on trend. The volume of purchase applications rose 8.2 percent in the November 18 week, back on an upward path but still, at about minus five percent, below the year-ago level. Refinance volume wasn't able to rebound, down 4.0 percent in the latest week though applications for government loans did rise with the government share of activity, at 12.3 percent, the highest of the year. Rates were steady in the week, averaging 4.23 percent for conforming balances ($417,500 or less) and 4.59 percent for jumbo loans ($417,500 or more). Next data on the housing sector will be Monday with new home sales.

Disgusting.

Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 393,000 – remember, it takes numbers below 350k to show any real job growth:
Highlights
Initial jobless claims are below 400,000 for a third straight week in what is a hopeful sign that the jobs market is improving. Claims in the November 19 week came in at 393,000 vs a revised 391,000 in the prior week and 393,000 before that. The four-week average of 394,250, down four weeks in a row, is below 400,000 for a second week in a row.

Continuing claims in data for the November 12 week rose 68,000 to 3.691 million with the four-week average down slightly to 3.672 million. Changes in continuing claims are hard to read given that declines are a mix of benefit expiration and hiring. The unemployment rate for insured workers is unchanged at 2.9 percent for a fifth straight week.

The Labor Department describes today's report as straight forward and without special factors. But the ongoing financial trouble in Europe is a major special factor that continues to unfold, raising the risk that weakened European demand may begin to drag on US growth and in turn job growth.



Really, you mean that a debt saturated Europe is a “special factor?” LOL, how about a debt saturated globe ruled by narcissistic psychos who were wrongly given the power to coin money with no one regulating the value thereof?

U.S. Constitution - Article 1, Section 8: The Congress (your representative) shall have the power “Clause 5: To coin Money, regulate the Value thereof…”
This is not occurring. Nowhere does the Constitution give Congress the right to subjugate this power or to give it to a few private individuals. This is THE MOST IMPORTANT CLAUSE IN THE CONSTITUTION. It clearly spells out WHO it is that is supposed to be in charge of the production and regulation of money. It is the correct rule of law and it makes the private “Fed” a completely illegal group. This is critical because transferring that power to a few individuals gives them the ability to make money from nothing and then to corrupt ALL the other provisions of our rule of law. This is the one point that the people need to get focused on – it is here where all answers are found – I’m talking about our problems with morality, ethics, war, entitlements, work ethic, everything!

You name the ailment, and I’ll tell you how it relates to WHO it is that controls the production of money. A common currency MUST come into being without benefiting the few, it must come into being without favoring anyone. Truly sovereign money does this, it does not come into being as someone’s debt burden.

Regarding Jobless Claims, remember to keep the longer term perspective in mind – everything above the red line is losing jobs:

Initial Claims:


Durable Goods Orders continued to decline in October, falling .7%. Points to consider… We make almost nothing in America anymore, the production situation is so pathetic that a few aircraft orders one way or the other causes this measurement to swing wildly – that is a national embarrassment, Ross Perot was right about that giant sucking sound you hear. Another point is that they measure Durable Goods in DOLLARS, not widgets, and thus they are way overstated. Here’s Econoday consenting to the lies:
Highlights
Durables orders in October were pulled down by a drop in civilian aircraft orders. Otherwise, durables orders were moderately positive net. New factory orders for durables fell 0.7 percent, following a decline of 1.5 percent the prior month (previous estimate, down 0.6 percent). The October decline was less negative than the consensus forecast for a 1.0 percent fall. Excluding transportation, durables advanced 0.7 percent after a 0.6 percent rebound in September. The October increase topped the consensus forecast for no change in durables excluding transportation.

Weakness in October was led transportation which fell 4.8 percent after dropping 7.6 percent in September. Within transportation, weakness was in nondefense aircraft which declined 16.4 percent after a 26.8 percent fall in September. These are essentially swings in orders for Boeing aircraft. Defense aircraft rebounded 10.2 percent, following a 34.8 percent drop in September. Motor vehicles rebounded 6.2 percent after a 2.4 percent dip the month before.

Outside of transportation, orders were mixed but net positive. Increases were seen in primary metals, up 3.0 percent; machinery, up 1.6 percent; and "other" durables, up 1.2 percent. On the downside were fabricated metals, down 0.3 percent; computers & electronics, down 0.1 percent; and electrical equipment, down 5.2 percent.

Turning to private investment numbers, nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft declined 1.8 percent, but followed increases of 0.9 percent in both August and September. Shipments for this series decreased 1.1 percent in October, following a 3.1 percent boost in August and a 1.0 percent dip in September. While volatile, nondefense capital spending appears to remain on a mild uptrend.

Despite monthly volatility, forward momentum continues for the manufacturing sector. Given the fact that Boeing recently announced sizeable new orders and that auto sales remain healthy, the underlying trend for manufacturing looks moderately healthy and should help the recovery gain strength, albeit gradually.



Healthy? Really?

Okay, let’s zoom out and look at the Durable Goods chart back as far as it will go, about 1992. We know that total employees in Manufacturing is at the same level as 1942, so let’s put them together on the same chart from about 1980:

Durable Goods with Employees in Manufacturing:


Note on the chart above how Durable Goods are measured in DOLLARS. This means that this chart is NOT REAL, does not reflect reality at all UNLESS we truly correct it for inflation. I can’t do that because the “Fed” has completely distorted the reality of inflation, but what I can do is simply divide the Durable Goods dollar quantity by the largest measurement of money, MZM:

Durable Goods Divided by MZM:


Gee, what do we find? Diminishing production relative to money creation. I could do the same thing by dividing Durable Goods with our debt, and the results look the same. What does it prove? It proves that our Durable Goods report is a fraud, when you measure production in dollars that are being devalued, then your measurement is meaningless. Thus this, and all economic statistics measured in dollars are a lie. A lie that gets bigger with the exponential growth of money and moneyness. The bottom line is don’t consent to the lies!

Demand that they stop lying to you and demand that the rule of law be righted by returning the money creation power to the people where it belongs!

Ready for more lies? Okay, here comes Personal Income and Outlays. Here the claim is that Personal Income grew by .4% in October, 3.9% year over year. And that “Consumer Spending” (Personal Outlays) grew by .1% in October, 4.7% year over year. Again, these are measurements of dollars. It says NOTHING about what you got for your dollars. And it says nothing about how long you had to work to get the items those dollars got you. Okay, let’s listen to the lies about “tame inflation:”
Highlights
Personal income and spending posted additional gains in October. Inflation was tame. Personal income in October advanced 0.4 percent, following a 0.1 percent increase in September. The October rise came in higher than the market median projection for 0.3 percent. The wages & salaries component posted an even stronger 0.5 percent boost after rebounding 0.4percent the month before.

The pace of consumer spending eased in October but followed a strong gain the prior month. Personal consumption expenditures rose 0.1 percent in October, following a 0.7 percent surge in September. Market expectations were for a 0.3 percent gain. By components, personal spending was led by durables, up 0.8 percent after a 2.9 percent jump in September . On a drop in gasoline prices, nondurables decreased 0.2 percent, following a 1.0 percent jump the month before. Services rose 0.1 percent after a 0.2 percent gain in September.

Headline inflation turned negative while the core rate was soft. The headline PCE price index declined 0.1percent, following a 0.2 percent increase in September. The market expectation was for no change. The core rate firmed modestly to a 0.1 percent rise in October from no change the month before. Analysts had called for a 0.1 percent rise.

Year-on-year, headline prices are up 2.7 percent, compared to 2.9 percent in September. The core is up 1.7 percent on a year-ago basis versus 1.6 percent the month before.

The October personal income report is moderately strong, taking into account that the easing in spending came off a strong September. Within income, the robust gain in the wage & salaries component is particularly encouraging. While unemployment remains high, for consumers that are employed, the fundamentals for spending continue to improve.

While we hear the lies, we do not consent to them! “Robust gain in wage & salaries” my ass. What a whopper of a lie – your wage is relative to cost because you are paid in dollars. If you want to see a true picture of your wage, let’s divide Personal Income by MZM, our money supply, to see what the truth looks like:

Personal Income Divided by MZM:


Uh huh. Are you feeling the squeeze? Excess money production, production that benefits the few, not the many, is the root cause.

“Consumer” Sentiment just came in at a pathetic level of 64.1, down slightly from the previous month’s 64.2. Let’s chart Consumer Sentiment on the same graph as Total Consumer Loans, shall we?

Consumer Sentiment & Total Consumer Loans:


Note how Sentiment rose into the year 1999 right along with the creation of the credit bubble. Then crisis with monetary response that throws the economy past the debt saturation point and ever since Consumer Sentiment has been on a down trending path.

It doesn’t have to be like this. You don’t have to consent to living inside of a nation that indebts itself to a few narcissistic individuals – that is a most improper rule of law. And you don’t have to believe or consent to the lies being bombarded upon you nonstop from the media and those whose livings are derived from propping up an illegal and immoral system.

Listen to Bill Black calmly describe the FRAUD and what needs to happen to make it stop:

Bill Black interview begins at the 7:15 point:


Don’t consent to the lies, don’t consent to the FRAUD.

“Talk is cheap when the story is good, and the tales grow taller on down the line…

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.