Monday, November 28, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/28 - Tales Keep on Rollin’ Edition…

Good Morning,

I call baloney on the supposed Black Friday Retail Sales party, ditto with the continuing rumor mill regarding Europe – to call both “tales” is the understatement of the year. Equity futures gapped up huge and are now more than 400 points higher than Friday’s low. The dollar is sharply lower, bonds sharply lower, oil higher, gold & silver higher, and food commodities higher as well.

Watching the “news” this weekend looked like nothing but a giant cheerleading advertisement for “black Friday” shopping. The completely biased National Retail Federation released a survey on Sunday saying that “Major retailers reported record sales of $52.4 billion over Black Friday weekend -- up 16% from last year.”

To which, I can only call major league bullshit to go along with a giant gaffaahaha. These self-interested clowns are very similar to the jokers who run the MBA (Mortgage Banker’s Association), in that they compile false and exaggerated reports in order to manipulate people’s perception of the market from which they derive their living – and to which the media also depend upon promoting.

No person in their right mind would believe for a second that retail sales actually rose 16% in just one year, anytime you see numbers that large, you should immediately think of Bernie Madoff and your scam detecting radar should begin screaming at you. First of all, if we go back and look at prior years, this scam is the same scam the NRF runs every year, and after their wild releases meant to create a shopping frenzy, reality is never what they proclaim. Secondly, this was a survey. Surveys are notoriously inaccurate, and they don’t survey the businesses that have failed in the past year! Also, sales are measured in dollars, not units, thus the outrageous production of money creates inflation – inflation does not equal growth in sales, it equals growth in money production!

M1:


M1 Percent Change from a Year Ago:


Hmmm… notice that M1 is up about 17% from a year ago, not too far from that Black Friday Sales Figure, no? Truth is that a number like that should scare the heck out of you, ditto with what used to be our free markets.

Now let's look at the other measurements of money from the "Fed," all expressed in percent change from a year ago:

Base Money 35% Change from a year ago!


M2 10% Change from a year ago:


MZM 9% Change from a year ago:


Speaking of money(ness), the BIS (Bank of International Settlement) reported that in just half a year the notional value of derivatives in the United States jumped by $107 trillion to $707 Trillion! That's a six month increase of 17.8%! Again, simply unbelievable! In this case, I believe the value of derivatives to be understated and I don't think the BIS or any group has a real handle on just how much money(ness) there is out there. Thus it seems out of control because it is out of control. Of course the failure of MF Global may be the first derivatives domino to topple...

Now do we really need to talk about Europe again? Same old stuff. Impossible math, debt saturated nations, corrupt bankers creating rumors about grand bailout schemes all of which simply make more debt money from nothing to imprison countries already in debt way over their heads. Any such solution will only translate into inflation, the Germans are right to be scared of it. The only solutions that will actually work are solutions that include shrinking the amount of debt – the exact opposite of what bankers would like.

And to think that the same narcissists who got the world into this mess will lead us out of it, is simply insane.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
- Albert Einstein

A lot of data this week, the highlight being the Employment Situation report for November released this Friday. This morning is New Home Sales and the Dallas Fed Survey, both will be reported inside of today’s Daily Thread.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.