Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/30

Good Morning,

Futures are zooming on announcements of multiple rivers of “liquidity” (money) being pumped all over the world. The DOW is now nearly 500 points above its overnight low, below is a 5 minute chart:

I guess they need that “liquidity” because this just isn’t enough:


NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Federal Reserve, acting with five other central banks, took further steps Wednesday to make it cheaper for banks around the world to trade in U.S. dollars.

The Fed -- along with central banks of the eurozone, England, Japan, Switzerland and Canada -- announced a coordinated plan to lower prices on dollar liquidity swaps beginning on December 5, and extending these swap arrangements to February 1, 2013.

Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China also announced a plan to increase liquidity Wednesday by lowering its reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by half a percentage point.

And thus the effects of the impossible math once again exert themselves, and it is the reaction to those deflationary forces that causes bankers and politicians to kill their own currency via their satanic desire to create inflation.

Sure, try “investing” this type of “market.” And just who knew this was coming over the weekend? Graft and fraud is all I see, Hank Paulson is probably still spreading inside information. If you haven’t seen the latest that exposes yet another illegal operation by our former Treasury Secretary, then please see this complete breakdown of the rule of law and then imagine “investing” against these criminals: How Paulson Gave Hedge Funds Advance Word.

The dollar, of course, is tanking – that is the plan, that everything you need cost more and thus you are taxed with every dollar earned and then spent. Bonds are down sharply too, oil is of course zooming, gold & silver are zooming (trade of the decade), while food commodities appear determined to choke life from the masses.

In other news, the Occupy movement is raided by police on both coasts at exactly the same time showing how the police are now coordinating against the protests. From my perspective the police are acting on behalf of those who finance them, not the public – thus our nation is truly dividing itself into a classic good versus evil battle – again, I implore you to evaluate your own actions and make sure they are supporting the right side of the battle.

Yesterday it was reported that Consumer Confidence suddenly jumped to its highest point since 2003, this coming from just above its all-time low? Hmmm… I smell something funny. Did “Consumers” really all of the sudden feel good about the economy with Europe imploding, the stock market languishing, protests across the country (and around the globe), their home prices plummeting, and a depression era job market? Sure, but remember, I no longer consent to the lies, so I don’t have to believe it and in fact don’t.

The Hypocritical Mortgage Banker’s Association, who I hear is now threatening legal action against people who recast their “data,” report the following manipulate you proprietary data which I happily recast as a snippet of reporting from Econocomplicit:
Thanksgiving is clouding weekly mortgage application readings with purchase applications down 0.8 percent and refinancing applications down 15.3 percent in the November 25 week. A look at four-week averages, which helps limit single-week distortions, shows the purchase index up 2.4 percent to offer another signal of momentum in the housing market. The four-week average for the refinancing index is down 4.9 percent.

Bargain home prices are helping to lift home sales as are low interest rates with 30-year conforming loans ($417,500 or less) averaging 4.21 percent for a two basis point decline from the prior week. Jumbo 30-year loans ($417,500 and more) averaged 4.55 percent for a four basis point decline. Thirty-year fixed mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Agency fell five basis points to 4.00 percent for their lowest rate since January. Pending home sales data, which will offer a look at contract signings for existing home sales, will be posted at 10:00 a.m. ET today.

Honestly, this data is so corrupt I don’t know why anyone would report it – it should be illegal for private interests to report statistics on their own industry as self-interest reporting in this manner causes economic misallocation that can, and has, damaged everyone in the nation.

The Challenger Job-Cut report was basically level from last month:
Layoff announcements are little changed this month at 42,474 vs 42,759 in October and 48,711 in November last year. Government has been a heavy sector for layoffs this year as it is once again this month, at more than 18,500 with 13,500 of the cuts hitting civilians in the Air Force. Food, retail, and computer round out the month's next three hardest hit sectors. Layoffs in the financial sector have been mild the past two months but the report warns that contagion tied to the European financial crisis is putting US jobs in this sector at risk.

ADP, which is notorious for moving the market ahead of the Jobs Report, basically doubled the estimated “job creation” from 110k to 206k – this is way above the 125k consensus:
ADP estimates private payrolls rose 206,000 in November vs a revised 130,000 rise in October.
I’m willing to bet this is higher than what the Jobs Report will come up with because November is one of the months in which they do a subtraction with their phony “birth/death” model.

While we’re speaking of phony, “Productivity” and Costs were released with “productivity” revised downward along with GDP. Remember, the only thing we produce is money, aka “liquidity,” the rest is mostly baloney because we measure our “productivity” in dollars, and just look at the M1 chart at the top of the page, that is all you need to know:
Somewhat in line with the downward revision to third quarter GDP growth, productivity for the same period was revised down to a 2.3 percent rise, compared to the initial estimate of 3.1 percent and a 0.1 percent dip in the second quarter. Analysts had forecast a 2.6 percent increase for the revised number. The output component was revised down to a gain of 3.2 percent from the original 3.8 percent. Hours worked were nudged up to a 0.8 percent annualized increased from the original 0.6 percent.

Unit labor costs were revised to an annualized 2.5 percent decrease, compared to the first estimate of a 2.4 percent drop. The market median forecast was for a 2.3 percent decrease.

Compensation was softer than earlier estimated-down 0.2 percent versus up an annualized 0.6 percent.

Year-on-year, productivity was up 0.9 percent in the third quarter-matching the rate in the second quarter. Year-ago unit labor costs came in at up 0.4 percent in the second quarter, compared to a rise of 1.0 percent in the prior period.

Despite the mixed revisions (some favorable, some not), the latest productivity report is still favorable toward a continuation of growth in corporate profits with output up and labor costs down.

On the news, equity futures were up strongly but on favorable news out of Europe and on a better-than-expected ADP private employment report

Uh huh, if you remember, I raised the B.S. flag on the Compensation numbers when this was last reported. Now they are reporting that instead of the +.6% gain that it turned into a -.2% loss… and that is with their trumped up measurements that are completely not real. I can guarantee you the 70,000 employees at bankrupt American Airlines are about to lose far more than .2% of their wages while at the same time the true evil doers are flooding the world with “liquidity.” Track that… “liquidity” into the hands of the bankers, wages falling means none of it is falling into the hands of the 99% because the 1% use it to commit fraud upon the masses – that is the game afoot, which side are you on?

Meanwhile, and almost as if coordinated (cough, cough), the “Fed” in the Chicago area says that its index rose from 58.4 to 62.6:
The pace of activity in the Chicago area has picked up this month with the business barometer at 62.6, far above 50 to indicate monthly growth and well above October's 58.4 to indicate an acceleration in monthly growth. Leading indications in the report show significant monthly acceleration led by a nearly nine point surge in new orders to 70.2 together with a nearly four point gain for backlog orders to 55.1. The new orders index is showing is fastest rate of monthly growth since March with backlogs showing their fastest rate of build since April.

Other indications are mostly positive with production particularly strong at 67.3 for a nearly four point gain while deliveries slowed further in another indication of strength. The report's sample, which includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms in the area, added to their workforces in the month but at a slower rate, at 56.9 vs 62.3 in October which was a six month high. Input prices continued to increase but at a slightly slower rate.

The stock market, moving to session highs, appears to be getting a slight boost from today's report which points to strength for both the ISM's manufacturing survey on Thursday and the ISM's non-manufacturing survey on Monday.

LOL, so quaint… they credit this phony data for moving the stock market, guess they didn’t get the liquidity bomb memo yet.

And on coordinated queue, Pending Home Sales supposedly jumped (LOL) from 84.5 all the way to 93.3!! In the month of October! LOL Wow, talk about coordinated baloney – I guess President Obama must have sent the memo to make him look good.

Again the disconnect between reality and the spin of their fantastic lies grow larger. The math is clearly exponential, thus the flood of liquidity is required to keep the rivers flowing. None of it will find its way into the working class’s pockets, the rule of law for them is dividing itself sharper against the rule of law they apply to everyone else. So sad, the revolution is still brewing.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.