Tuesday, December 27, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/27 - Ruby Tuesday Edition...

Good Morning,

Equities are close to even this morning as prices are sitting right on overhead resistance. Pushing prices higher through the holidays is a given for those manipulating the false fluff, especially with some international markets still closed. The dollar and bonds are higher, however, while oil tries to break the $100 mark, gold & silver are down slightly, and food commodities are mixed with leftover indigestion.

Home prices continue to decline at a faster pace than the supposed experts think. The Case-Shiller report for October says that the 20 city price index declined a seasonally adjusted .6% for the month, 1.2% not adjusted, and 3.4% for the year. Personally, my home’s assessment declined approximately 10% over that time period, so once again believing these figures is difficult. Here’s Econoplicit:
Indications on home prices are for the most part trending downwards with Case-Shiller the latest to show contraction, at an adjusted 0.6 percent in October following a revised 0.7 percent decline in September and a 0.4 percent decline in August. For the unadjusted data, which in this series is closely watched, contraction steepened from a revised 0.7 percent in September to 1.2 percent in October. The deeper monthly contraction here likely reflects, at least in part, the dampening effects on demand from colder weather. The year-on-year comparison, where seasonality plays much less of a factor than the month-on-month comparison, both the adjusted and unadjusted series show 3.4 percent contraction which in a mild positive is a little less severe than prior months.

But the year-on-year rate won't be improving much if monthly contraction continues to extend. A look at individual cities shows a break down in Atlanta where monthly rates of adjusted decline have been 4.1 percent, 4.8 percent and 2.9 percent the last three reports. At a year-on-year minus 11.7 percent, Atlanta is the only one of the report's 20 cities to show double-digit contraction. Other weak spots include Minneapolis, Los Angeles, and Chicago as well as Las Vegas and Miami.

Home sales have been firming and reports of life in the housing and construction-related sectors are picking up. But the gains are being made at the expense of price. Next data out of the housing sector will be mortgage applications tomorrow morning.

Spin, spin, spin/ positive bias.

Below is a chart of the 20 city price index since the year 2000. I no longer believe this chart and the Case-Shiller report are accurate, I don’t believe prices declined and then stabilized, I believe they have continued to decline:

Below is the entire Case-Shiller report, now corrupted as S&P owns it:

Case-Shiller October 2011

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index was just released and came in worse than expected at a level of 3 when 5 was the expectation. It is up, however, from the prior zero reported. Again, this is “Fed” data, indexed from surveys by managers who measure in dollars. Dallas “Fed” Index comes out in a few minutes and will be reported inside of today’s Daily Thread.

And this just reported by the Puget Sound Business Journal;
"Sears Holding Co. .. said it will close between 100 and 120 Sears and Kmart full-line stores, citing a "difficult economic environment, especially for big-ticket items."

The Chicago Tribune reports Illinois-based Sears reported terrible holiday sales. In a statement, Sears officials said closing the stores will generate $140 to $170 million of cash, and they added the final list of stores to be closed hasn't been determined.

And evidently the con is working slightly as Consumer Confidence rose from guttural level of 56, all the way to the still depression read of 64.5. That is above expectations of 59, must be time to break that overhead resistance and get on with the business of reelecting the Usurper-in-Chief.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.