Q3 GDP Forecasts
4 hours ago
Friday, January 28, 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 1/28
Good Morning,
Equity futures are mixed to slightly higher before the open this morning with 4th quarter trumped up GDP coming in weaker than the consensus was expecting. The dollar is up slightly, bonds are down, oil is up, gold is down slightly, and most food commodities are roughly flat.
Quarter four GDP came in at 3.2%, this is up from Q3’s 2.6%, but is short of the 3.5% expectation. Here’s Econoday falling for and then disseminating the banker’s disinformation:
No excessive growth? Well, if it were real, which it’s not, it would be very high growth, nearly unsustainable over just a very short number of years. But since its monetary growth and not real growth, it represents a quickening of the death of our currency. Oh boy, let’s cheer that on!
The UGLY in this report is exactly what is being touted as good! Exports rose at an 8.5% rate, while Imports fell at a 13.6% rate! That’s huge, but what, exactly, would cause something like that to occur? A booming economy? NO! Monetization and the devaluation of your dollars is what causes that. And from the other trumped up data with no transparency, the monthly TIC flows and trade data, our monthly trade deficits are still running in the $40 billion range. If these numbers are true, how come our trade deficits aren’t coming down? Oh, that’s right, because it’s all monetization and has nothing to do with actual production. And if the “consumer” is really as strong as is being touted, how come imports are falling at 13.6%!!! This entire GDP report is NOT BASED IN REALITY. It is representative of the FRAUD and DISINFORMATION in our nation, it is vastly overstated, and it is a product of WHO controls the production of money. Pure garbage.
And note how clever Obama was (his speech writers and teleprompter programmers) in calling for a doubling of our exports from 2009 to 2014. Using the rule of 72 (or 70), to double something in only five years requires approximately a tremendous 14.4% growth rate. According to this report, indeed, we’re not too far from that target! Imagine that, doubling exports in only 5 years! So, what’s really going on? They know that printing larger quantities of money devalues it. What they are saying is, “We are going to cut the value of your money in half in only five years!”
That’s exactly what the President told you just the other night. That’s how he can smugly assure you that “growth” will occur and he certainly acts as if he’s got a little secret that you don’t and thus his “confidence” in being able to, with a straight face no less, proclaim that he will double exports in only five years!
OMG! I can’t think of a faster and surer way destroy the middle-class, to jack up the cost of everything priced in dollars (hello food and energy), and to destabilize the entire globe (hello Tunisia and now Egypt and Syria).
But it’s all good when despots are overthrown, right? Did everyone catch that after Egyptian police shot a rioter and the shooting made it onto the internet that the internet in Egypt was promptly taken down? Now it's being reported that the internet in Syria has been taken down. That is one of the 10 sure signs of a despot regime, they kill communication in an attempt to stay in power. And Obama anointed this very same power to himself disguised, of course, in the name of fighting the war on “terror.” People in a highly functioning society should NEVER allow any individual such power, NEVER.
The Employment Cost Index came in steady showing a .4% quarter over quarter rise, on a 2% annual “growth” rate:
No, I don’t trust this data either and believe that in real terms people’s wages are sliding down, not going up. This data suffers from all sorts of bias and should not be considered meaningful in the real sense. Still, it shows that the Export data is monetary. We are exporting money, we have already exported most meaningful jobs. True and sustainable price inflation requires rising wages. Wages aren’t rising in America, they are rising in other parts of the world. Double exports for America, you halve the value of the money, and double the cost of buying things from other parts of the world for Americans whose wages are absolutely not keeping pace. In fact, if anything that 13.6% import figure is probably very close to what the actual inflation rate is. Think about that – it represents a 5.3 year doubling time, how sustainable is that, and what are the ramifications throughout the world?
“Consumer” Sentiment is released to us debt peons at 9:55 this morning.
The global state of debt saturation was caused by greedy bankers – period. They seized control of the ability to create money and this is their doing (although our greedy politicians let them). Now we have a doubling of food commodity prices in
only six months and riots/ revolution that is spreading quickly. Those two events are not put together enough, yet the bankers who brought it to you, like JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, are angry and tired of being berated, lol. His latest child-like temper tantrum comes, you’ll notice, while meeting in posh circumstance in Davos, Switzerland.
And just because nobody seems to care anymore, I want to point out what it is that’s occurring there. The world’s top bankers and financiers are meeting. What are they doing at this and other meetings? Why they are colluding, that’s what the term is for businesses who meet and develop joint strategies together and who work to price fix, which is exactly what they have done to the bond market, the stock market, commodity markets, interest rates, nearly everything. Collusion and price fixing… Those things are illegal if you do them, just so you know.
And it used to be that we, the people, had laws that prevented USURY. Remember that quaint little concept? Remember when the gangsters would lend money at a usurious 20% and then break kneecaps if the sap borrower didn’t pay? Well now that’s all legal, well, except for the kneecap part. Although many people who can no longer discharge credit cards with usurious rates in bankruptcy, and those who are losing their homes, their health, and their families, might just rather wobble than to go through banker induced slavery and debtor hell. And again, due to the lack of moral concepts, the exponential rise of debt and the killing of your money system gathers pace. You’ve been told, “exports will double.” Now you just have to be smart enough to know what that means.
Usury?
My oh my, talk of an interest rate cap? That’ll go nowhere as long as the private banks are in control of producing money – which in the scheme of history, and of their own doing, won’t be too much longer.
There was yet another very small movement of the McClellan Oscillator yesterday, expect a large directional move possibly today or tomorrow. I note that the McClellan has turned positive once again.
Divergences still in place, the Transports are still not confirming the Industrials – a very high risk time as even my own dollar negativity (which is longer term) has reached a very high point, and we know that nothing, except trumped up markets, moves in a straight line.
Just to keep you spatially aware, below is a long term monthly chart of the dollar. It has been descending, and appears that it wants to touch that lower rising trend line once again, now in the 76.7 range:
We’re not too far from that now, the reaction of the dollar from here will be important. And note that this index does not represent REAL movements of the dollar’s worth, it simply represents itself relative to other currencies which are also attempting to devalue themselves. Thus, for the dollar to move lower, it actual means that we’re winning the race to the bottom. With goals like doubling our exports (as measured in dollars), it’s no wonder we’ll eventually win that race. Oh wait, Zimbabwe already crossed the finish line… well, there’s always second place!
Equity futures are mixed to slightly higher before the open this morning with 4th quarter trumped up GDP coming in weaker than the consensus was expecting. The dollar is up slightly, bonds are down, oil is up, gold is down slightly, and most food commodities are roughly flat.
Quarter four GDP came in at 3.2%, this is up from Q3’s 2.6%, but is short of the 3.5% expectation. Here’s Econoday falling for and then disseminating the banker’s disinformation:
Highlights
The economy regained momentum in the final quarter of 2010-and in most of the right places. Fourth quarter GDP accelerated to a moderately healthy 3.2 percent annualized gain, following a 2.6 percent increase the prior quarter. The latest figure fell short of analysts' median forecast for a 3.5 percent boost. But the detail is stronger than the headline number.
The last quarter of 2010 was led by sharp improvement in net exports to a gap of $392.2 billion from $505.0 billion in the third quarter. Exports rose an annualized 8.5 percent while imports dropped 13.6 percent Also boosting GDP were personal consumption expenditures, up an annualized 4.4 percent; business investment in equipment & software, up 5.8 percent; and residential investment, up 3.4 percent. Nonresidential structures posted a modest rise.
Weakness was led by a sharp slowing in inventory investment to $7.2 billion from $121.4 billion in the third quarter. Government purchases slipped 0.6 percent.
The bottom line is that final sales have picked up significantly. Final sales of domestic product strengthened to a 7.1 percent increase from 0.9 percent annualized in the third quarter. Growth in real final sales to domestic purchasers (takes out net exports) picked up to 3.4 percent, following a 2.6 percent boost in the third quarter.
Year-on-year, real GDP in the fourth quarter is up 2.8 percent, compared 3.2 percent in the third quarter.
Economy-wide inflation as measured by the GDP price index softened to 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, following a 2.1 percent increase the prior quarter. The consensus expected a 1.5 percent gain.
Today's report is clearly positive for forward momentum in the recovery despite a slightly disappointing headline number. Demand is picking up and inventories are not out of control-a very good combination. Still, growth is moderate and there are no signs of pending excessive growth.
No excessive growth? Well, if it were real, which it’s not, it would be very high growth, nearly unsustainable over just a very short number of years. But since its monetary growth and not real growth, it represents a quickening of the death of our currency. Oh boy, let’s cheer that on!
The UGLY in this report is exactly what is being touted as good! Exports rose at an 8.5% rate, while Imports fell at a 13.6% rate! That’s huge, but what, exactly, would cause something like that to occur? A booming economy? NO! Monetization and the devaluation of your dollars is what causes that. And from the other trumped up data with no transparency, the monthly TIC flows and trade data, our monthly trade deficits are still running in the $40 billion range. If these numbers are true, how come our trade deficits aren’t coming down? Oh, that’s right, because it’s all monetization and has nothing to do with actual production. And if the “consumer” is really as strong as is being touted, how come imports are falling at 13.6%!!! This entire GDP report is NOT BASED IN REALITY. It is representative of the FRAUD and DISINFORMATION in our nation, it is vastly overstated, and it is a product of WHO controls the production of money. Pure garbage.
And note how clever Obama was (his speech writers and teleprompter programmers) in calling for a doubling of our exports from 2009 to 2014. Using the rule of 72 (or 70), to double something in only five years requires approximately a tremendous 14.4% growth rate. According to this report, indeed, we’re not too far from that target! Imagine that, doubling exports in only 5 years! So, what’s really going on? They know that printing larger quantities of money devalues it. What they are saying is, “We are going to cut the value of your money in half in only five years!”
That’s exactly what the President told you just the other night. That’s how he can smugly assure you that “growth” will occur and he certainly acts as if he’s got a little secret that you don’t and thus his “confidence” in being able to, with a straight face no less, proclaim that he will double exports in only five years!
OMG! I can’t think of a faster and surer way destroy the middle-class, to jack up the cost of everything priced in dollars (hello food and energy), and to destabilize the entire globe (hello Tunisia and now Egypt and Syria).
But it’s all good when despots are overthrown, right? Did everyone catch that after Egyptian police shot a rioter and the shooting made it onto the internet that the internet in Egypt was promptly taken down? Now it's being reported that the internet in Syria has been taken down. That is one of the 10 sure signs of a despot regime, they kill communication in an attempt to stay in power. And Obama anointed this very same power to himself disguised, of course, in the name of fighting the war on “terror.” People in a highly functioning society should NEVER allow any individual such power, NEVER.
The Employment Cost Index came in steady showing a .4% quarter over quarter rise, on a 2% annual “growth” rate:
Highlights
Wage inflation is no threat to accommodation by the Federal Reserve which closely watches the employment cost index. The ECI rose a very mild and lower-than-expected 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter compared with the third quarter. Compared with fourth quarter 2009, the ECI rose 2.0 percent for the second lowest year-on-year fourth-quarter reading ever. The lowest reading ever was plus 1.4 percent in fourth-quarter 2009.
Details show 0.4 percent increases across the board for both wages & salaries and for benefits in both the civilian-worker and private-industry breakdowns. It was not, to say the least, a big pay-raise year for the American worker whose wages & salaries rose only 1.6 percent. This is the second lowest reading ever behind fourth-quarter 2009's plus 1.5 percent. Workers did get a bit bigger boost of 2.9 percent on the benefit side.
No, I don’t trust this data either and believe that in real terms people’s wages are sliding down, not going up. This data suffers from all sorts of bias and should not be considered meaningful in the real sense. Still, it shows that the Export data is monetary. We are exporting money, we have already exported most meaningful jobs. True and sustainable price inflation requires rising wages. Wages aren’t rising in America, they are rising in other parts of the world. Double exports for America, you halve the value of the money, and double the cost of buying things from other parts of the world for Americans whose wages are absolutely not keeping pace. In fact, if anything that 13.6% import figure is probably very close to what the actual inflation rate is. Think about that – it represents a 5.3 year doubling time, how sustainable is that, and what are the ramifications throughout the world?
“Consumer” Sentiment is released to us debt peons at 9:55 this morning.
The global state of debt saturation was caused by greedy bankers – period. They seized control of the ability to create money and this is their doing (although our greedy politicians let them). Now we have a doubling of food commodity prices in
only six months and riots/ revolution that is spreading quickly. Those two events are not put together enough, yet the bankers who brought it to you, like JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon, are angry and tired of being berated, lol. His latest child-like temper tantrum comes, you’ll notice, while meeting in posh circumstance in Davos, Switzerland.
And just because nobody seems to care anymore, I want to point out what it is that’s occurring there. The world’s top bankers and financiers are meeting. What are they doing at this and other meetings? Why they are colluding, that’s what the term is for businesses who meet and develop joint strategies together and who work to price fix, which is exactly what they have done to the bond market, the stock market, commodity markets, interest rates, nearly everything. Collusion and price fixing… Those things are illegal if you do them, just so you know.
And it used to be that we, the people, had laws that prevented USURY. Remember that quaint little concept? Remember when the gangsters would lend money at a usurious 20% and then break kneecaps if the sap borrower didn’t pay? Well now that’s all legal, well, except for the kneecap part. Although many people who can no longer discharge credit cards with usurious rates in bankruptcy, and those who are losing their homes, their health, and their families, might just rather wobble than to go through banker induced slavery and debtor hell. And again, due to the lack of moral concepts, the exponential rise of debt and the killing of your money system gathers pace. You’ve been told, “exports will double.” Now you just have to be smart enough to know what that means.
Usury?
Credit card rates at record highs near 15%
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Interest rates are now hovering near record highs, at an average rate of 14.72%. And if your credit is bad enough, you could even end up with a rate as high as 59.9% APR.That's because while the CARD Act helped crack down on certain fees and requires more disclosures, it didn't cap every credit card holder's worst enemy: interest rates.
Sure, the new rules prevent banks from raising most interest rates retroactively, but there's no limit on the rates they can charge new customers.
"Rates are going up because card issuers know that once you get a card they can't raise the rates, so they're raising rates on the front end to ensure they get the revenue from that interest," said Beverly Harzog, credit card expert at Credit.com.
APRs have climbed more than 20% over the past two years and hit an all-time high of an average 14.78% in mid-November, based on weekly data CreditCards.com collects from 100 of the nation's top credit card issuers.
And there's no end in sight. While interest rate caps have been proposed -- including a proposal earlier this month from New York Congressman Maurice Hinchey that would limit rates at 15% -- none have been passed into law so far.
My oh my, talk of an interest rate cap? That’ll go nowhere as long as the private banks are in control of producing money – which in the scheme of history, and of their own doing, won’t be too much longer.
There was yet another very small movement of the McClellan Oscillator yesterday, expect a large directional move possibly today or tomorrow. I note that the McClellan has turned positive once again.
Divergences still in place, the Transports are still not confirming the Industrials – a very high risk time as even my own dollar negativity (which is longer term) has reached a very high point, and we know that nothing, except trumped up markets, moves in a straight line.
Just to keep you spatially aware, below is a long term monthly chart of the dollar. It has been descending, and appears that it wants to touch that lower rising trend line once again, now in the 76.7 range:
We’re not too far from that now, the reaction of the dollar from here will be important. And note that this index does not represent REAL movements of the dollar’s worth, it simply represents itself relative to other currencies which are also attempting to devalue themselves. Thus, for the dollar to move lower, it actual means that we’re winning the race to the bottom. With goals like doubling our exports (as measured in dollars), it’s no wonder we’ll eventually win that race. Oh wait, Zimbabwe already crossed the finish line… well, there’s always second place!
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 1/27
Good Morning,
Equity futures are down only slightly following a very large Weekly Unemployment number. The dollar is down, bonds are flat, oil and gold are lower, while food commodities continue to soar.
It takes a lot of nerve to stand up in front of a nation on one day and talk about how our economy is “growing” again and how we’re going to control our runaway deficits, only to have the “Fed” confirm on the next day that they are pressing on with their $600 billion money printing campaign, AND that the treasury says our deficit is going up by another $500 billion to nearly $2 Trillion, AND that tax revenues as a percent of GDP will be the lowest since 1950!
And that last part, “as a percent of GDP” tells you everything you need to know… GDP is only rising due to money printing, financial engineering, and accounting fraud (lobbyists just got FASB to back away from Mark-to-Market again). Meanwhile tax revenues are down because the economy sucks. The economy sucks because we are saturated with debt and being robbed in the biggest heist that has ever occurred in the history of mankind. It is completely laughable that pumping up the stock market will improve the REAL economy.
Meanwhile, back at the Office of Disinformation, the DOL couldn’t find its rear with both hands. Jobless Claims soared from 404,000 to 454,000 with the consensus only 405k! That’s a 12.6% jump! Now, does anyone really believe that large of a change really occurred in one week? I sure don’t, this type of reporting is proof that the DOL is BROKEN. Here’s Econoday:
Riiight, it was the weather, lol! It has nothing to do with inane policy, inaccurate statistical methods, or anything like that.
In fact all of the rise as reported by the DOL is due to Seasonal Adjustments as “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 482,399 in the week ending Jan. 22, a decrease of 67,491 from the previous week.” Actual claims decreased, but due to their own adjustments the number is forced to shoot up. To much noise is being created by the DOL. My position is that allowing humans that much latitude is an invitation to manipulation. Again, we must keep these numbers in perspective; our population is growing 1% a year and we need to create many jobs just to stay even. That means that any number in this weekly report above 350k is a job losing proposition. Our economy is not creating jobs, it is losing massive numbers of them still. It is complete disinformation to claim job creation as President Obama does every time he talks.
Durable Goods Orders also put in a significant miss, falling 2.5% in December which follows a -1.5% print in November. This shows negative real growth and it is accelerating downwards. Consensus was looking for improvement to a positive 1.5% move. That didn’t happen, but again numbers like this expose the game for what it is. Durable Goods Orders are first a dollar amount… for this number to be negative in the face of a falling dollar and zooming commodities tells you that REAL Durable Goods Orders are significantly lower than even this horrid report. I know, let’s make excuses:
Aircraft are a very important part of our manufacturing base, it and military hardware are all we have left of significance, and that has been slipping away.
The Chicago Fed Index came in barely positive, but with its 3 month moving average negative by .22%. It’s important to understand what this index is saying:
Note first that this number comes from the “Fed.” Also note that it is predicated on “trend,” whatever that may be. Who says what the trend is and how it is measured? What inflation data is used to measure it? In other words, it’s a GARBAGE report, meaningless. And even with that it still is showing below trend “growth.” More disinformation and a worthless product brought to you by the people who create the money and benefit from it. In my world, economic statistics would not be allowed to be produced by those who have a direct interest in the outcomes.
Pending Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern and will be reported inside of the Daily Thread.
The market continues to show a very strong correlation to money printing. Yesterday commenter Steve posted a very pertinent chart showing the market activity since QE1 and QE2 were begun. It clearly shows that when a nation prints money and throws it at the market, the market will go up:
Investing in such a market is a huge risk. Traditional Technicals say its way overdone, and thus it is a dilemna. For me, it's not worth the risk as I am not privy to their inside information.
This effect is the same effect encountered in Zimbabwe when it had the best performing stock market on the planet… for a time. It is a looting effort. It allows the people WHO create the money to escape with what riches are left. As their looting continues, just as in Zimbabwe, real people starve. In this case our “Fed” is starving the entire world that is on the margins. And also just like Zimbabwe, when the direct money printing ends, the market will collapse. It is nothing but an empty shell being inflated by nothing real. Fraud on multiple levels, disinformation in our statistics, money printing, accounting and control fraud. It’s all FRAUD. The rule of law? Not even close.
Still, that’s just complaining, what’s an investor to do? Ask yourself, “What would a despot do?” Um, let’s see, load up the private jet with GOLD, and leave the country!? What, you don’t have a G20 sitting on the tarmac at the local airport? Well, you can at least own some gold… and that from someone who is most definitely not a gold bug, but did recommend owning gold ever since it was priced around $350 an ounce (same goes for silver).
The uptrend line on gold is currently around $1,300 an ounce, not too far from here, and yes, I think you buy the dips, but don’t go hog wild if it breaks that trendline. If it does, the first area of support on the chart will be around $1,250:
Will holding precious metals make you rich? No, but it’s really all you have, as even real estate is not safe and has large carrying expenses unless it produces a very good income. Always remember WHO owns the majority of the gold (the banks) and don’t be fooled by their rhetoric about use as a backing for a nation’s money system. What’s most important is WHO controls the quantity. It is a complete and total MYTH (Disinformation) that gold works to keep the quantity of money under control. It never has.
Watch this Alan Parson’s “Gold Bug” video in today's context with the advantage of hindsight (EU riddled with debt, nations bankrupt)… WHO wanted and created a European Union? Note the opening gala, and note who they hired to M.C. it. Interesting in light of today’s events, and an interesting choice of titles for that activity, no?
Equity futures are down only slightly following a very large Weekly Unemployment number. The dollar is down, bonds are flat, oil and gold are lower, while food commodities continue to soar.
It takes a lot of nerve to stand up in front of a nation on one day and talk about how our economy is “growing” again and how we’re going to control our runaway deficits, only to have the “Fed” confirm on the next day that they are pressing on with their $600 billion money printing campaign, AND that the treasury says our deficit is going up by another $500 billion to nearly $2 Trillion, AND that tax revenues as a percent of GDP will be the lowest since 1950!
And that last part, “as a percent of GDP” tells you everything you need to know… GDP is only rising due to money printing, financial engineering, and accounting fraud (lobbyists just got FASB to back away from Mark-to-Market again). Meanwhile tax revenues are down because the economy sucks. The economy sucks because we are saturated with debt and being robbed in the biggest heist that has ever occurred in the history of mankind. It is completely laughable that pumping up the stock market will improve the REAL economy.
Meanwhile, back at the Office of Disinformation, the DOL couldn’t find its rear with both hands. Jobless Claims soared from 404,000 to 454,000 with the consensus only 405k! That’s a 12.6% jump! Now, does anyone really believe that large of a change really occurred in one week? I sure don’t, this type of reporting is proof that the DOL is BROKEN. Here’s Econoday:
Highlights
The Labor Department is blaming snow storms in the South for a very disappointing and totally unexpected 51,000 rise in initial jobless claims to 454,000 for the January 22 week (prior week revised 1,000 lower to 403,000). But unfortunately the jump also reflects what the Labor Department calls "normal" volatility in the numbers at this time of year, which is the heaviest time for initial claims (Labor Department comments provided by Market News International).
The four-week average jumped 15,750 to 428,750 which is nearly 15,000 higher than a month ago and which suddenly points to trouble for the monthly employment report. Continuing claims also rose, up 94,000 to 3.991 million in data for the January 15 week. The unemployment rate for insured workers rose one tenth to 3.2 percent. In unadjusted data for the January 8 week, the department reports that 9.41 million people claimed unemployment benefits, down from 9.63 million in the prior week.
Heavy weather may be playing a major negative role in January economic data. Hopefully it will be just a one-time effect that will quickly reverse. Markets are showing limited reaction, at least initially, to today's report.
Riiight, it was the weather, lol! It has nothing to do with inane policy, inaccurate statistical methods, or anything like that.
In fact all of the rise as reported by the DOL is due to Seasonal Adjustments as “The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 482,399 in the week ending Jan. 22, a decrease of 67,491 from the previous week.” Actual claims decreased, but due to their own adjustments the number is forced to shoot up. To much noise is being created by the DOL. My position is that allowing humans that much latitude is an invitation to manipulation. Again, we must keep these numbers in perspective; our population is growing 1% a year and we need to create many jobs just to stay even. That means that any number in this weekly report above 350k is a job losing proposition. Our economy is not creating jobs, it is losing massive numbers of them still. It is complete disinformation to claim job creation as President Obama does every time he talks.
Durable Goods Orders also put in a significant miss, falling 2.5% in December which follows a -1.5% print in November. This shows negative real growth and it is accelerating downwards. Consensus was looking for improvement to a positive 1.5% move. That didn’t happen, but again numbers like this expose the game for what it is. Durable Goods Orders are first a dollar amount… for this number to be negative in the face of a falling dollar and zooming commodities tells you that REAL Durable Goods Orders are significantly lower than even this horrid report. I know, let’s make excuses:
Highlights
Durables orders are living up to their reputation as one of the most volatile monthly series in the U.S.-and the latest report was disappointing. Durables orders in December unexpectedly dropped 2.5 percent, following a revised 0.1 percent fall the month before. Weakness was primarily in nondefense aircraft orders. Excluding transportation, new orders for durable goods were more favorable, advancing 0.5 percent after a 4.5 percent surge in November. By industry, strength was mostly in machinery with others industries generally down but after healthy gains the prior month.
By major industries, transportation fell a monthly 12.8 percent in December after declining 13.1 percent the month before. The latest decline was mainly in nondefense aircraft which plunged a monthly 99.5 percent-again, essentially Boeing orders likely falling due to delays in its Dreamliner delivery dates. Also, within transportation, motor vehicles actually increased 1.7 percent while defense aircraft & parts fell back 10.9 percent.
Outside of transportation, strength was narrowly focused with machinery jumping 10.6 percent (November in parenthesis, up 0.3 percent). Other industries were down but generally after a notable gain the month before. Primary metals fell 4.7 percent (up 13.8 percent); fabricated metals down 1.0 percent (up 2.9 percent); computers & electronics down 1.2 percent (up 6.5 percent); electrical equipment down 0.1 percent (up 8.6 percent); and all others down 1.1 percent (up 0.8) percent.
Business investment in equipment continues to show strength outside of aircraft. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft in December rose 1.4 percent after gaining 3.1 percent the prior month. Shipments for this series rose 1.7 percent, following a 1.4 percent increase in November.
Overall, the report should be considered in light of ex-transportation showing the overall trend over two or three months. Essentially, manufacturing is still on an uptrend though one not as robust as believed last month.
Aircraft are a very important part of our manufacturing base, it and military hardware are all we have left of significance, and that has been slipping away.
The Chicago Fed Index came in barely positive, but with its 3 month moving average negative by .22%. It’s important to understand what this index is saying:
Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index designed to better gauge overall economic activity and inflationary pressure. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend. (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago)
Note first that this number comes from the “Fed.” Also note that it is predicated on “trend,” whatever that may be. Who says what the trend is and how it is measured? What inflation data is used to measure it? In other words, it’s a GARBAGE report, meaningless. And even with that it still is showing below trend “growth.” More disinformation and a worthless product brought to you by the people who create the money and benefit from it. In my world, economic statistics would not be allowed to be produced by those who have a direct interest in the outcomes.
Pending Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern and will be reported inside of the Daily Thread.
The market continues to show a very strong correlation to money printing. Yesterday commenter Steve posted a very pertinent chart showing the market activity since QE1 and QE2 were begun. It clearly shows that when a nation prints money and throws it at the market, the market will go up:
Investing in such a market is a huge risk. Traditional Technicals say its way overdone, and thus it is a dilemna. For me, it's not worth the risk as I am not privy to their inside information.
This effect is the same effect encountered in Zimbabwe when it had the best performing stock market on the planet… for a time. It is a looting effort. It allows the people WHO create the money to escape with what riches are left. As their looting continues, just as in Zimbabwe, real people starve. In this case our “Fed” is starving the entire world that is on the margins. And also just like Zimbabwe, when the direct money printing ends, the market will collapse. It is nothing but an empty shell being inflated by nothing real. Fraud on multiple levels, disinformation in our statistics, money printing, accounting and control fraud. It’s all FRAUD. The rule of law? Not even close.
Still, that’s just complaining, what’s an investor to do? Ask yourself, “What would a despot do?” Um, let’s see, load up the private jet with GOLD, and leave the country!? What, you don’t have a G20 sitting on the tarmac at the local airport? Well, you can at least own some gold… and that from someone who is most definitely not a gold bug, but did recommend owning gold ever since it was priced around $350 an ounce (same goes for silver).
The uptrend line on gold is currently around $1,300 an ounce, not too far from here, and yes, I think you buy the dips, but don’t go hog wild if it breaks that trendline. If it does, the first area of support on the chart will be around $1,250:
Will holding precious metals make you rich? No, but it’s really all you have, as even real estate is not safe and has large carrying expenses unless it produces a very good income. Always remember WHO owns the majority of the gold (the banks) and don’t be fooled by their rhetoric about use as a backing for a nation’s money system. What’s most important is WHO controls the quantity. It is a complete and total MYTH (Disinformation) that gold works to keep the quantity of money under control. It never has.
Watch this Alan Parson’s “Gold Bug” video in today's context with the advantage of hindsight (EU riddled with debt, nations bankrupt)… WHO wanted and created a European Union? Note the opening gala, and note who they hired to M.C. it. Interesting in light of today’s events, and an interesting choice of titles for that activity, no?
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 1/26
Good Morning,
Equities are slightly higher following Obama’s misdirect-you State of the Union speech and in front of today’s FOMC disinformation announcement. The dollar is close to level, bonds are slightly lower, oil is flat, and gold is still in correction mode with food commodities continuing to impoverish those on the margins – funny how food riots and revolution by starving people in Tunisia is okay and even touted by the President… he sees it as democracy taking out despots, while I see it as a banking cabal impoverishing the world. Always glad to see a despot get the boot, but is that going to put food on Tunisian’s tables? More on the President’s speech in a moment…
Meanwhile, the unethical, corrupt, and hypocritical Mortgage Banker’s Association reported that Purchase Applications fell yet another 8.7% in the prior week, refinancing activity supposedly also fell a whopping 15.3%, pulling their composite index down 12.9%! They were already near historic lows, the MBA’s math and reporting methods are ridiculous. Here’s Econoday:
New Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern, and the FOMC Announcement comes at 2:15 Eastern.
Obama touted economic “growth” in his speech last night. He repeated his last year’s radical and crazy call for our nation’s exports to DOUBLE in just five years (!) and he trumpeted how with the “growth” in the past year we are well on our way to meeting that goal! I literally can’t laugh hard enough at such nonsense. There’s only one way we accomplish that goal, and that’s by cutting the value of our money in half! That’s because exports and GDP “growth” are measured in dollars. Sure, if one throws $112 billion a month, month after month into the system then we’re going to see the number of dollars “grow.” But that’s entirely different than REAL economic growth, and thus the disinformation and game playing continues.
Now, don’t get me wrong, Obama is an excellent speech giver when he has teleprompters directly in front of him. And last night’s speech sounded just like a most excellent campaign speech – long on talk, short on specifics, and EMPTY when it comes to paying for us “winning” the future. No mention of our debt saturated condition, no mention of bankrupt states, bankrupt cities, bankrupt nations around the globe, or WHO made them that way. Everything’s rosy, America is the greatest nation on the planet, and therefore we’re going to win the future, launching somehow forward from this “Sputnik” moment in time.
And just look at our shining example of maintaining the rule of law! According to him, we’re doing a terrific job of that too! Of course none of the criminals looting our country, past and present, are being prosecuted, but again, we continue to gloss over that. All happy talk in an attempt to convince the “consumers” of America that it’s okay to open your wallets and bury yourself as deeply in debt as your income can possible stand. President of Marketing should be his real title, Disinformation Minister/ Czar is his role in reality. Otherwise, it was a very fine speech - well delivered, his timing from one teleprompter to the other was excellent.
And I like positive people and positive talk about the future as much as anyone. And if we weren’t beginning from a completely impossible math situation then I’d be happy as the proverbial clam. But while we are now at least talking about what appears to be the elephant in the room, the deficit, it turns out that the elephant in the room is much, much bigger than anyone in the Administration admits, and in fact is a Trojan Elephant with the central bankers playing the part of the Greeks.
The disinformation will continue as long as the money printing can cover it up. We are not too far from losing confidence as it is, again I simply point to a doubling of food commodities in the past six months. No talk about that, gee, I wonder why that is as I watch wheat put in a new high.
There was a small movement in the McClellan Oscillator yesterday, expect a large directional move today or tomorrow. But I would not expect a large move until after the FOMC provides their “Fed” disinformation this afternoon. Interest rates at zero, and print to the moon, we have exports to double and only four years left to do it!
Equities are slightly higher following Obama’s misdirect-you State of the Union speech and in front of today’s FOMC disinformation announcement. The dollar is close to level, bonds are slightly lower, oil is flat, and gold is still in correction mode with food commodities continuing to impoverish those on the margins – funny how food riots and revolution by starving people in Tunisia is okay and even touted by the President… he sees it as democracy taking out despots, while I see it as a banking cabal impoverishing the world. Always glad to see a despot get the boot, but is that going to put food on Tunisian’s tables? More on the President’s speech in a moment…
Meanwhile, the unethical, corrupt, and hypocritical Mortgage Banker’s Association reported that Purchase Applications fell yet another 8.7% in the prior week, refinancing activity supposedly also fell a whopping 15.3%, pulling their composite index down 12.9%! They were already near historic lows, the MBA’s math and reporting methods are ridiculous. Here’s Econoday:
HighlightsA 20.8% year over year decline? These numbers put the lie to supposed improvement in the housing market, not to mention the economy as a whole. I think a lot of activity is based on foreclosures, many are cash deals done by investors and not by families intent on living in them. In other words, the housing market, I believe, is even worse than the numbers make it appear, which is already pathetically weak.
The run of weakness in purchase applications deepened severely in the Janauary 21 week, down 8.7 percent to take the index back to its lowest point since October. Heavy weather and the shortened holiday week put the focus on the unadjusted index which fell a less severe 3.1 percent for a still substantial 20.8 percent year-on-year decline.
Refinancing activity also fell heavily, down an adjusted 15.3 percent for the lowest level since January last year. Rates are affordable but well off their lows, up three basis points in the week to 4.80 percent for 30-year mortgages.
The recent jump in rates motivated the fence sitters in December, at least for existing home sales in data released last week. But the ongoing slide in the purchase index points to a January setback.
New Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern, and the FOMC Announcement comes at 2:15 Eastern.
Obama touted economic “growth” in his speech last night. He repeated his last year’s radical and crazy call for our nation’s exports to DOUBLE in just five years (!) and he trumpeted how with the “growth” in the past year we are well on our way to meeting that goal! I literally can’t laugh hard enough at such nonsense. There’s only one way we accomplish that goal, and that’s by cutting the value of our money in half! That’s because exports and GDP “growth” are measured in dollars. Sure, if one throws $112 billion a month, month after month into the system then we’re going to see the number of dollars “grow.” But that’s entirely different than REAL economic growth, and thus the disinformation and game playing continues.
Now, don’t get me wrong, Obama is an excellent speech giver when he has teleprompters directly in front of him. And last night’s speech sounded just like a most excellent campaign speech – long on talk, short on specifics, and EMPTY when it comes to paying for us “winning” the future. No mention of our debt saturated condition, no mention of bankrupt states, bankrupt cities, bankrupt nations around the globe, or WHO made them that way. Everything’s rosy, America is the greatest nation on the planet, and therefore we’re going to win the future, launching somehow forward from this “Sputnik” moment in time.
And just look at our shining example of maintaining the rule of law! According to him, we’re doing a terrific job of that too! Of course none of the criminals looting our country, past and present, are being prosecuted, but again, we continue to gloss over that. All happy talk in an attempt to convince the “consumers” of America that it’s okay to open your wallets and bury yourself as deeply in debt as your income can possible stand. President of Marketing should be his real title, Disinformation Minister/ Czar is his role in reality. Otherwise, it was a very fine speech - well delivered, his timing from one teleprompter to the other was excellent.
And I like positive people and positive talk about the future as much as anyone. And if we weren’t beginning from a completely impossible math situation then I’d be happy as the proverbial clam. But while we are now at least talking about what appears to be the elephant in the room, the deficit, it turns out that the elephant in the room is much, much bigger than anyone in the Administration admits, and in fact is a Trojan Elephant with the central bankers playing the part of the Greeks.
The disinformation will continue as long as the money printing can cover it up. We are not too far from losing confidence as it is, again I simply point to a doubling of food commodities in the past six months. No talk about that, gee, I wonder why that is as I watch wheat put in a new high.
There was a small movement in the McClellan Oscillator yesterday, expect a large directional move today or tomorrow. But I would not expect a large move until after the FOMC provides their “Fed” disinformation this afternoon. Interest rates at zero, and print to the moon, we have exports to double and only four years left to do it!
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 1/25
Good Morning,
Stocks are lower this morning as the markets continue to display warning signs despite higher highs in the Industrials. The dollar is higher, bonds are higher, oil has descended below its uptrend line, and gold is lower along with most food commodities this morning.
The Case-Shiller 20 city Home Price Index fell in the month of November by 1.0% month over month, and is down 1.6% compared to a year prior. These numbers represent an acceleration of falling prices, however, the more narrow 10 city Index did not show the same price deceleration, at -.4%, and thus gives those looking for rainbows and Skittles something to dream about. Below is the entire S&P Case-Shiller Report, I think you will find it interesting:
Case-Shiller November
Below is the wishful spin from Econoday:
Looking at four different news sources, I see headlines that make this report seem both like an improvement and as worsening. How should it be read? In my opinion, the wider the spread of data the more accurate the picture, and thus the 20 city Index is what should be given the most credence. Regardless, home prices are still falling and those are sizable moves not to be ignored or wished away.
Home prices are going to continue to be under pressure throughout 2011 as the number of Option-ARM resets crescendos in the middle of this year.
Consumer Confidence and the FHFA Home Price Index are released at 10 Eastern this morning and will be reported within the Daily Thread. The FOMC meeting begins today, we will be duly impressed with their confidence inspiring print to infinity verbiage tomorrow at 2:15 Eastern.
Yesterday’s rally came, of course, on the back of more billions in POMO money. Can’t wait to see what the market does when that stops… and it will at some point. Volume on the advance was weak, and looked corrective in the Transports and NDX. The Transports are well off their highs, they are going to have to have use some serious POMO dollars to pump the Trannies if they wish to avoid a DOW Theory non-confirmation. Of course commodities are often a tell, and oil is now established in a down trend after breaking its uptrend line overnight, and putting in a lower low:
Despite yesterday’s rally the McClellan Oscillator remains negative. This means that the majority of stocks are in a downtrend, it is one of the key ingredients to fulfilling the Hindenburg Omen. Conditions now have a very similar feel to the top that was made in ’07, with people calling for $250 a barrel oil, $5 gasoline, and a dollar that is worthless while food riots break out around the globe. Again I am left to wonder what happens when the “Fed” has bought the entire market? Hmmm, I still don’t think this is going to end well…
Stocks are lower this morning as the markets continue to display warning signs despite higher highs in the Industrials. The dollar is higher, bonds are higher, oil has descended below its uptrend line, and gold is lower along with most food commodities this morning.
The Case-Shiller 20 city Home Price Index fell in the month of November by 1.0% month over month, and is down 1.6% compared to a year prior. These numbers represent an acceleration of falling prices, however, the more narrow 10 city Index did not show the same price deceleration, at -.4%, and thus gives those looking for rainbows and Skittles something to dream about. Below is the entire S&P Case-Shiller Report, I think you will find it interesting:
Case-Shiller November
Below is the wishful spin from Econoday:
Highlights
Home-price contraction eased in November according to Case-Shiller data that show a 0.4 percent adjusted dip for the composite 10 index in November compared to a 1.0 percent drop in October (revised one tenth lower) and declines of 0.8 percent and 0.5 in the two prior months. Note that Case-Shiller data are based on a three-month average which suggests that November may have actually showed a gain. Unadjusted data, which are also watched for this report, show a steeper decline of 0.8 percent which however is still improved from October's 1.3 percent drop.
But the results aren't that encouraging, showing declines across most cities led by Detroit, Atlanta, and Chicago. Year-on-year comparisons show an adjusted 0.4 percent decline for the composite 10 index and an adjusted 1.6 percent decline for the composite 20. Further data on home prices will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET today with the FHFA house price index.
Looking at four different news sources, I see headlines that make this report seem both like an improvement and as worsening. How should it be read? In my opinion, the wider the spread of data the more accurate the picture, and thus the 20 city Index is what should be given the most credence. Regardless, home prices are still falling and those are sizable moves not to be ignored or wished away.
Home prices are going to continue to be under pressure throughout 2011 as the number of Option-ARM resets crescendos in the middle of this year.
Consumer Confidence and the FHFA Home Price Index are released at 10 Eastern this morning and will be reported within the Daily Thread. The FOMC meeting begins today, we will be duly impressed with their confidence inspiring print to infinity verbiage tomorrow at 2:15 Eastern.
Yesterday’s rally came, of course, on the back of more billions in POMO money. Can’t wait to see what the market does when that stops… and it will at some point. Volume on the advance was weak, and looked corrective in the Transports and NDX. The Transports are well off their highs, they are going to have to have use some serious POMO dollars to pump the Trannies if they wish to avoid a DOW Theory non-confirmation. Of course commodities are often a tell, and oil is now established in a down trend after breaking its uptrend line overnight, and putting in a lower low:
Despite yesterday’s rally the McClellan Oscillator remains negative. This means that the majority of stocks are in a downtrend, it is one of the key ingredients to fulfilling the Hindenburg Omen. Conditions now have a very similar feel to the top that was made in ’07, with people calling for $250 a barrel oil, $5 gasoline, and a dollar that is worthless while food riots break out around the globe. Again I am left to wonder what happens when the “Fed” has bought the entire market? Hmmm, I still don’t think this is going to end well…
Monday, January 24, 2011
Morning Update/ Market Thread 1/24 – Desperate People…
Good Morning,
Equity futures are roughly flat just prior to the open with the dollar higher, bonds higher, oil sharply lower, gold falling, and most food commodities marching still higher. Oil is very close to breaking its daily uptrend line.
There are no economic reports today, just POMO after POMO. Actually, this Wednesday will stand out due to the fact there is no POMO that day. $7 to $9 more billion is planned for today – sickening. The data will start coming tomorrow with Case-Schiller data, the House Price Index, and Consumer Confidence. The FOMC meets again this week and will announce they are leaving interest rates at zero and printing your money into oblivion on Wednesday. The first cut at Q4 GDP comes on Friday, so it should be a very interesting week, especially for the economic disinformation that is flowing like the mighty river Nile.
Speaking of economic disinformation, this week the world’s foremost dispensers of economic Kool-Aid meet in Davos:
That’s right… global growth! The emerging nations are going to pull developed nations up by their boot-strap! Sure, why not? And maybe Santa will bring me that new Aston Martin I’ve always wanted! Vroooom!
What could go wrong with that scenario?! Let’s see, food prices double in 6 months. People starving, riots, bankrupt nations, states, cities, revolutions spreading… oh, and governments being overthrown Iceland style!
Got to love the fighting Irish who are so angry at what was the current regime for taking banker “bailouts” that sold them and their retirement plans down the river, that they are throwing them out on their rears and forcing a new election. I can guarantee you that the next government will unwind whatever damage the world bankers are currently doing to that country, appropriately so.
Just remember that desperate people do desperate things. Take a look at this morning’s news. Four police shot inside of their own Precinct offices in Detroit. Two police shot in Port Orchard, WA at the local WalMart. Three more officers shot in St. Petersburg Florida. Now we’re also learning of a bomb exploding at the Moscow airport in Russia, 31 killed and more than 100 wounded. It seems to me that there are more and more desperate people. Keep printing that money, nothing bad will happen… sure. Just remember those “other” events have roots that run deep. When the desperate people get organized, real change will come, just as it did in Tunisia. That’s why you’re likely to see attempts to break lines of communication in the future. Of course none of these events will be related to the economic disinformation and outright thievery that’s occurring and begins at the very top – at least that’s the picture painted by the bankers, politicians, and media that they own and control. No worries, look over there, the DOW rose 20 points today (shhh, don’t remind anyone that it took $9 Billion in POMO to get it, just shut up and fork over $15 for that hamburger).
Major top in the markets coming? You bet. There are signs aplenty that we are forming one right now. People are already forgetting the recent Hindenburg Omen, the VIX sell signal that occurred just four trading days ago, and no one is talking about the decline of the Transports while the Industrials continue to make new highs. That’s a setup for a potential DOW Theory non-confirmation, something that is almost always seen very near major market tops. Again this morning the Transports are sinking with the Industrials making new highs… the same thing occurred in 2007 just before the real fun began. The McClellan Oscillator is still very negative and is declining despite the rising DOW Industrials. This is showing that breadth is narrowing and it is yet another divergence in the marketplace.
How long will POMO hot money be able to create the illusion of “growth?” I don’t know for sure, but I am guessing until “other events” force those meeting this week in Davos to stop it.
Equity futures are roughly flat just prior to the open with the dollar higher, bonds higher, oil sharply lower, gold falling, and most food commodities marching still higher. Oil is very close to breaking its daily uptrend line.
There are no economic reports today, just POMO after POMO. Actually, this Wednesday will stand out due to the fact there is no POMO that day. $7 to $9 more billion is planned for today – sickening. The data will start coming tomorrow with Case-Schiller data, the House Price Index, and Consumer Confidence. The FOMC meets again this week and will announce they are leaving interest rates at zero and printing your money into oblivion on Wednesday. The first cut at Q4 GDP comes on Friday, so it should be a very interesting week, especially for the economic disinformation that is flowing like the mighty river Nile.
Speaking of economic disinformation, this week the world’s foremost dispensers of economic Kool-Aid meet in Davos:
Super-Cycle Leaves No Economy Behind as Davos Shifts to GrowthJan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- For only the third time since the Industrial Revolution, the world may be entering a long-term growth cycle that will lift all economies simultaneously, driving bond yields and commodity prices higher.
The depth and scope of the expansion will be a focus for discussion at this week’s annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Evidence of a broadening global recovery will enable U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner, investor George Soros and 2,500 political, business and academic leaders to shift their emphasis away from crisis- fighting.
With the economic and investment outlooks “much better” than in recent years, “people are talking about how to get back to business as normal and what comes next,” said Jitesh Gadhia, a delegate to the conference and the London-based senior managing director at Blackstone Group LP, which runs the world’s largest buyout fund.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc., PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP and London’s Standard Chartered Bank are among the financial companies sending executives to the meeting. Their economists predict a growth spurt in coming decades led by emerging nations that will be strong enough to boost developed countries.
That’s right… global growth! The emerging nations are going to pull developed nations up by their boot-strap! Sure, why not? And maybe Santa will bring me that new Aston Martin I’ve always wanted! Vroooom!
What could go wrong with that scenario?! Let’s see, food prices double in 6 months. People starving, riots, bankrupt nations, states, cities, revolutions spreading… oh, and governments being overthrown Iceland style!
Got to love the fighting Irish who are so angry at what was the current regime for taking banker “bailouts” that sold them and their retirement plans down the river, that they are throwing them out on their rears and forcing a new election. I can guarantee you that the next government will unwind whatever damage the world bankers are currently doing to that country, appropriately so.
Just remember that desperate people do desperate things. Take a look at this morning’s news. Four police shot inside of their own Precinct offices in Detroit. Two police shot in Port Orchard, WA at the local WalMart. Three more officers shot in St. Petersburg Florida. Now we’re also learning of a bomb exploding at the Moscow airport in Russia, 31 killed and more than 100 wounded. It seems to me that there are more and more desperate people. Keep printing that money, nothing bad will happen… sure. Just remember those “other” events have roots that run deep. When the desperate people get organized, real change will come, just as it did in Tunisia. That’s why you’re likely to see attempts to break lines of communication in the future. Of course none of these events will be related to the economic disinformation and outright thievery that’s occurring and begins at the very top – at least that’s the picture painted by the bankers, politicians, and media that they own and control. No worries, look over there, the DOW rose 20 points today (shhh, don’t remind anyone that it took $9 Billion in POMO to get it, just shut up and fork over $15 for that hamburger).
Major top in the markets coming? You bet. There are signs aplenty that we are forming one right now. People are already forgetting the recent Hindenburg Omen, the VIX sell signal that occurred just four trading days ago, and no one is talking about the decline of the Transports while the Industrials continue to make new highs. That’s a setup for a potential DOW Theory non-confirmation, something that is almost always seen very near major market tops. Again this morning the Transports are sinking with the Industrials making new highs… the same thing occurred in 2007 just before the real fun began. The McClellan Oscillator is still very negative and is declining despite the rising DOW Industrials. This is showing that breadth is narrowing and it is yet another divergence in the marketplace.
How long will POMO hot money be able to create the illusion of “growth?” I don’t know for sure, but I am guessing until “other events” force those meeting this week in Davos to stop it.
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