


World View & Market Commentary.
Forest first; Trees second.
Focused on Real & Knowable facts that filter through the "experts" fluff and media hyperbole. Where we've been, what the future may hold and developing a better way forward.
Highlights
Layoffs remain stubbornly high though longer term trends may be improving if only slightly. Initial jobless claims rose 10,000 in the July 16 week to a 418,000 level that's slightly higher than expected (prior week revised 3,000 higher to 408,000). The July 16 week is the survey week for the household employment section of the monthly employment report and a comparison with the prior survey week of June 18 shows an improvement but a small one at 9,000. A comparison of four-week averages during the same two weeks shows a smaller 5,000 improvement, to 421,250 vs 426,250.
Other data include a 50,000 decline in continuing claims for the July 9 week to 3.698 million with the four-week average down 4,000 to 3.721 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is down one tenth to 2.9 percent.
There are no special factors skewing today's report with claims tied to the government shutdown in Minnesota adding up to no more than 1,750. The job market is still very tough though trends in this report hint at slight improvement from June's extremely disappointing employment report.
Ex Japanese Nuclear Regulator Blames Radioactive Animal Feed on "Black Rain"
Stocks are looking and acting like they want to break out higher – from my perspective that is more tragic than if they follow a wave of deflation now. The markets are not free, they are not real, and they have never been more risk filled for the average investor. Again, my take is that we are all better off if you ignore the markets and find something real and productive to directly invest your money in. This is a throwback to the way business used to be financed, and it is the future if we don’t want to be ruled by central bankers who tell us nothing but lies.
Highlights
Held down by increasing US investment overseas, net inflow of long-term securities slowed to $23.6 billion in May for the weakest reading of the year. US resident outflow totaled $21.0 billion, up from $14.2 billion in April and compared with $30.6 billion in March. Low US yields are likely pushing investment overseas and limiting investment at home.
Foreign buying of US long-term securities totaled an in-trend $44.6 billion in May and was centered in Treasuries along with a respectable total for equities. Foreigners sold government agency bonds during the month though they were moderate buyers of US corporate bonds. Foreign purchases were roughly split evenly between private investors and official institutions.
A look at foreign holdings of Treasuries shows incremental gains for China, to $1.16 trillion, and Japan, to $912.4 trillion, with a slightly more than incremental gain for UK accounts to $346.5 billion. OPEC, the fourth largest holder of Treasuries, shows a more than $8 billion gain to $229.8 billion. Russia, the ninth largest holder, fell more than $10 billion to $115.2 billion.