Saturday, July 30, 2011

Weekend Open Thread...

Friday, July 29, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/29 - Productivity Not Edition...

Good Morning,

100% fraud, 100% of the time. That’s what happens when all the money you produce is backed by debt and the proceeds go to a few greedy narcissists instead of to the good of all the people. The GDP report this morning is simply more fraud that counts the creation of debt as productivity and yet still has to fudge reports to manipulate the people from who the narcissists are robbing.

Equities are lower still, the dollar is also lower, bonds are higher, oil is lower, gold & silver continue to shine against the turd colored backdrop, and food commodities are falling for today.

The Q2 GDP report stunk up the joint, coming in at a supposed +1.3% versus the 1.9% that was expected. Worse, this is the report where they correct the prior year and from that we learn that Q1’s reported 1.9% growth was really only .4%. Feel manipulated now? Did you buy into the BS growth story? Again, why would any American support this paradigm? The markets are false, the data is false, our money system is false. Again, my advice is to GET REAL when it comes to your “investing.”

Here’s Econohopeondope:
It's official but it's worse than believed. The soft patch continued into the second quarter as GDP growth for posted at a very sluggish 1.3 percent annualized rise, following a downwardly revised increase of 0.4 percent in the first quarter. Analysts had forecast a 1.9 percent boost for the latest quarter and the first quarter was previously estimated at 1.9 percent. Today's report includes standard annual revisions going back three years for most series.

Demand numbers improved but barely. Final sales of domestic product improved to up an annualized 1.1 percent from 0.0 percent (unchanged) in the first quarter (previously 0.6 percent). Final sales to domestic purchasers also nudged up, rising 0.5 percent from 0.4 percent in the prior period (previously 0.4 percent).

Most of the anemia in the second quarter came from the consumer sector which came to a screeching halt with a 0.1 annualized percent uptick in the first quarter, following a 2.1 percent rise the prior quarter. Government purchases declined modestly while gains were seen in net exports, business investment in structures and equipment, and even residential investment. Inventories nudged up.

Economy-wide inflation according to the GDP price index only incremental change in momentum, rising 2.3 percent, following an increase of 2.5 percent in the first quarter. Analysts expected a 2.0 percent gain.

High but still underreported inflation, and little to no real productivity.

The Employment Cost Index rose, not due to higher pay mind you, but due to inflation in the cost of benefits provided. Inflation is inflation, and especially in healthcare where you are being robbed blind by the “insurance” industry, the cost of doing business is far outstripping real revenue earnings (not the trumped-up earnings touted by accounting fraudsters):
Increasing acceleration in benefit costs fed an outsized 0.7 percent second-quarter increase in the employment cost index, the largest increase of the recovery. Benefits, which make up 30 percent of the index, rose 1.3 percent on top of the first-quarter's 1.1 percent jump with wages & salaries, which make up the remaining 70 percent, showing no acceleration at plus 0.4 percent.

When stripping out government workers and looking at just the private sector, benefits rose a quarterly 1.6 percent vs 1.2 percent in the first quarter with wages & salaries showing incremental acceleration at plus 0.5 percent. Add these two together and total compensation in the private sector -- and this is a special sign of increasing pressure -- rose 0.8 percent vs 0.5 percent gains in the prior two quarters.

Year-on-year rates tell the same story with benefits up 3.6 percent vs 3.0 percent in the first quarter and wages & salaries unchanged at plus 1.6 percent. These readings are for both government and private workers combined. Total year-on-year compensation is up 2.2 percent from 2.0 percent in the first quarter. A look at just the private sector shows an outsized three tenths increase in the year-on-year rate to plus 2.3 percent.

If the economy were in a solid growth mode these results would definitely be a concern for Federal Reserve policy makers who keep a close eye on compensation and often comment in detail about benefit costs. But the economy, based if nothing else on this morning's accompanying release of GDP data, isn't in a solid growth mode, making these early signs of compensation inflation a distant secondary concern.

“Solid Growth?” Give us a break for crying out loud. The production of debt has never been, nor will it ever be "productivity."

The Chicago PMI and Consumer Sentiment come out just prior to 10 Eastern… for those who enjoy the masochistic manipulation of the “Fed” – can’t wait.

Hark! Is that the ring of truth I’m hearing from a man who’s been mostly telling the truth for years?

Ron looks tired – don’t blame him as I watch the dollar plummet on the open. Gold’s running into another record, too bad Paul believes in gold backing money – that part of the manipulation he doesn’t get. But he does get the WHO it is that’s at the root of the problem, and that makes him the closest politician out there.

The VIX remained above the upper Bollinger yesterday, no signal yet:

100% fraud all the time – the markets are not real, the data is not real. When it comes to investing the fruits of your hard labor, you need to GET REAL.

Rest in Peace Dan Peek of America…

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/28 – Kabuki Theatre of the Absurd Edition…

Good Morning,

Equity futures turned slightly positive this morning following a Weekly Jobless Claims Report at 398,000, a dip slightly below the psychological 400k mark. The dollar is higher, bonds are higher, oil is higher, gold & silver are flat, while food commodities rise enough to make one choke.

The Department of Labor reported that Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 398,000 from the prior 418,000 – which was revised higher of course. Econospin has no problem making this sound as good as possible, but even if it were believable, which it’s not, it’s still a jobs losing proposition. If this raises employment expectation, then prepare to be disappointed (again) as mass layoff announcements have been steady over the past couple of weeks. Here’s Econoshill:
Initial jobless claims dropped a very sharp 24,000 in the July 23 week to 398,000 for the first sub-400,000 reading since early April (in a partial offset the prior week was revised 4,000 higher to 422,000). The four-week average of 413,750 is down a steep 8,500 in the week for a nearly 15,000 improvement from the month-ago reading, a comparison that points to improvement for the monthly jobs report.

Continuing claims have also been coming down, down 17,000 in the July 16 week to 3.703 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers is down one tenth to 2.9 percent.

One factor that may cloud today's report is uncertainty about retooling in the auto sector, a factor where timing is always hard to gauge and where uncertainty is even greater this year due to ongoing production cutbacks tied to Japan. Minnesota, where the government is shut down, is also a special factor though the state did not provide any related details this week. Yet given that the Labor Department isn't citing any special factors, today's report offers badly needed good news for the stock market.

Oh, then there’s this not reported unadjusted gem from the DOL, “The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending July 9 was 7,645,601, an increase of 320,152 from the previous week.” Oh yeah, go long the phony stock market based upon phony data – that’s a winner of an “investment.”

Pending Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern. Tomorrow brings the first guess at Q2 GDP. A whopping 1.9% is the group of clown’s guess. I say that real GDP is very negative and has been for more than a decade now.

Yesterday the VIX shot up and closed over the top of the upper Bollinger Band, that sets up a potential market buy signal once we have a close back inside the bands:

The major indices are all getting close to the bottom Bollinger, with the Transports closing beneath it yesterday.

If there’s one positive about this debt ceiling Kabuki, it’s that it’s giving the debt much needed attention. If only that attention was based in reality… sigh. The involvement of the rating agencies is putrid. That group of clowns is as conflicted as the day is long. If they were even close to honest they would admit that America is already in default, that is exactly what Quantitative Easing is. Our “rating” certainly would not be triple-A. Thus the rating agencies are complicit in allowing the government to run a shell/Ponzi game – had they taken action to downgrade our debt long ago, then perhaps the math would have never become so impossible. Everyone was silent for far too long, that’s because the system depends upon their complicity. Calling this “debate” Kabuki is an insult to the Asian art – let’s face it, we’re talking about the theatre of the absurd.

Back to doing and investing in something REAL.

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/27 – Is there Anybody Out There Edition…

Good Morning,

Equity futures are lower again this morning, but not nearly as low as they should be for the lunacy that goes on. The dollar is slightly higher, bonds lower, yen higher still, oil still being held beneath $100, gold running for the roses now at $1,630, silver higher, and food commodities mixed with rice continuing to rise.

Durable Goods Orders were a big miss coming in at -2.1% in June, this is down from +1.9% and well below the +1.0% consensus. Here’s Econoexcuse:
Headline durables disappoint and ex transportation is soft but the picture is more complex. New factory orders for durables in June fell 2.1 percent, following a rebound of 1.9 percent the prior month (previously up 2.1 percent from the factory orders report). The June advance came in below the median forecast for a 1.0 percent rise. Excluding transportation, durables edged up 0.1 percent after rebounding 0.7 percent in May.

Transportation was the weakest component, dropping a sharp 8.5 percent, following a 5.8 percent rebound in May. All major subcomponents of transportation were down. For June, motor vehicles slipped 1.4 percent, nondefense aircraft dropped 28.9 percent, and defense aircraft fell 205 percent. But Boeing is expected to boost nondefense aircraft soon and autos are expected to recover from supply shortages from Japan.

Ex-autos, weakness was in machinery, down sharply. All other industries in ex autos were up.

Within ex-autos, machinery dropped 2.3 percent in June. On the positive side, gains were seen in primary metals, up 1.0 percent; computers & electronics, up 0.2 percent; electrical equipment, up 0.4 percent; and "other," up 0.2 percent.

So, the real picture is a mostly positive June with isolated weakness in transportation and machinery.

Focusing on investment, new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft have been volatile but slowly trending up. New orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft slipped 0.4 percent in June, following a 1.7 percent gain the month before. Shipments for this series advanced 1.0 percent, following a 1.3 percent increase the month before.

Overall, the picture for durables manufacturing is mixed, though recovery from temporary weakness in nondefense aircraft and autos should bump up orders and production in durables manufacturing in coming months.

On the news, equity futures eased and Treasury rates nudged down.

What, the dog didn’t do it?

The completely conflicted and hypocritical Mortgage Banker’s Association reported that Purchase Applications fell 3.8% in the past week, and that Refinancing Activity fell 5.5% following their double-digit extreme nonsense the week prior. These people belong in prison, not creating unbelievable national economic statistics:
The purchase index fell 3.8 percent in the July 22 week to extend a run of weakness that points to trouble for July home sales. The refinance index, which spiked higher earlier this month, fell back 5.5 percent. Rates moved slightly higher in the week with 30-year mortgages averaging 4.57 percent.

Yesterday’s New Home Sales was also a miss, construction still at depression levels.

The VIX continues to rise into the debt and IQ abyss, Holly Cross now in the rearview mirror:

Notice how the political Kabuki has people angry at the politicians instead of the bankers? They are way off point, for it is the central bankers who are at the very root of the debt problem – they created a system of debt money that benefits them, the only reason to be mad at politicians is for giving them the power in the first place, and for not taking it away in the second place. No More National Debt!

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/26 – Dirty Deeds Done Dirt Cheap Edition...

Good Morning,

Equity futures are flat this morning prior to the open. This despite a dollar drilling a hole deeper than the Horizon oil well, the Yen is rising higher into the danger zone, oil is trying to get above $100 a barrel but looks like that well’s been capped (via manipulation), gold is slightly lower but still well above a stunning $1,600 an ounce, silver keeps rising, and food commodities are looking like squishy canned mixed veggies – very expensive ones.

Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales are released at 10 Eastern this morning and will be reported inside of today’s daily thread. Case-Shiller Home Price Data comes out just prior to the open, it too will be reported inside of the Daily thread.

Sickening is the feeling I had as Obama and Boehner both interrupted the evening news by taking their drivel to the people. Neither one mentioned their real agendas which I won’t even discuss as their games are just revolting – hostage taking for political gain is just one part of this corrupt sickness. None of this should be happening; we needn’t have any national debt whatsoever.

The VIX is feeding off this idiocy and is going to produce a “holly cross” today when the 50dma crosses over the 200dma. There have been exactly three of these holly crosses on the VIX in the past 5 years, two were prior and during the large drop in 2007/2008. Of course this is all a part of kabuki theatre, none of it is real:

The dollar is sinking, it is winning the race to the bottom of the skank money producers/manipulators. Very close to an all-time low, from a technical perspective it looks to be headed there:

Yesterday I had a conversation with a friend who was upside down on his house and couldn’t sell it because it wouldn’t appraise for the amount he had sold it for – twice. He rented it out for awhile then sold it via a short sale. The bank refused to play along, so he intentionally got two payments behind (only partial hit to credit that way) to get their attention in an attempt to get the short sale agreement approved. They sent him letters every week threatening to foreclose if he got another payment behind and they called him constantly in an attempt to squeeze a couple more payments out of him.

He had followed my writing about MERS and how unclean the paper trail is, so one day when he was sick of their inaction and games he demanded to see a copy of the original deed… Thud… Just like that the letters stopped, the phone calls stopped, and the short sale was approved a couple weeks later.

Knowledge is the key when dealing with shysters, the big banks are nothing but. The MERS mess and the way that is being dealt with is more sickening than the phony debt limit debate, yet it is garnering far less attention. All fraud all of the time…

Monday, July 25, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 7/25 - Threats, Hostage Taking, & Sovereign Money Edition

Good Morning,

Equity futures gapped down on the open yesterday and are still down a triple-digit amount as no “deal” has yet to be made on the debt limit. The dollar continues to sink while the Japanese Yen is in dangerous territory, oil is falling, yet gold has shot to another all-time high proving yet again that it’s a monetary root problem, silver is also higher, while most food commodities continue to choke real, living people with fake markets and fake money.

The threat’s been made – “economic Armageddon” will happen unless _______ party agrees to our (central banker box) solution. So, what happens if the threat’s been made but reality turns out different? Do the clowns and barkers wind up in prison? Out of office? Or do we continue to accept their inane manipulation into our economy and lives? Certainly if you were to make threats about their living you would wind up in prison in an instant.

The truth is that the national debt is a total embarrassment… not just because there’s so much of it, but because there should never be ANY of it in the first place! Why would the government of a collective people agree to pay private bankers interest in exchange for “borrowing money” that never existed in the first place? In other words, why would a sovereign government give a few private individuals the right to produce the nation’s money and charge it interest? These are the real questions that must be asked, not arguing about left/right or who’s giving up what! The only people who should be giving up anything is the private banks – and that would be the right to produce money at their will.

A key demarcation point was reached when Obama was elected President and he came out “focused on the future,” stating that “we all need to put our past behind us.” While that optimistic speak has a nice sounding façade, it was code for the rule of law will not be enforced and those who are robbing Americans not only will not go to prison for their crimes, but they will be allowed to continue to commit crimes (because they finance his election and he would not be there without it).

Make no mistake, the debt ceiling debate is meant to distract you… while the impossible math is clearly evident, raising the debt limit certainly is no solution to anything. Even if you fall into the central banker box of lies and deceit, common sense dictates that capping the debt is more beneficial for one’s credit than is unlimited ability to spend – thus the opposite of the threats is true. And as has been completely proven now over and over, we are macro-economically debt saturated and thus adding more debt will only result in further drag on the economy and higher structural unemployment.

No, what needs to happen is a complete revamp of our monetary system and WHO it is that is in control of producing our nation’s money. Below Bill Still advocates just such an on target solution, however, my caution, as it’s always been, is that while we must take back the power of money creation we must do so carefully with controls in place to limit the amount of money that gets produced – that is entirely possible as I spelled out in Freedom’s Vision. Also, the current debt must be cleared for prosperity to take root – again, Freedom’s Vision spells out just one method of how to accomplish that. Here’s Bill Still on point as usual:

This morning the Chicago “Fed’s” National Activity Index plummeted once again and prior readings were revised drastically lower… again. The prior month’s report was -.19, but it was revised downward to -.55, and thus the current report of -.46 could be headlined to read like it is an “improvement,” a favorite trick of the mainstream complicit pumpers. The 3 month moving average tanked to -.60, here’s Econononsense:
Growth in national business activity is below historical trend based on the Chicago Fed's index which comes in at minus 0.46 in June vs a downwardly revised minus 0.55 in May. At minus 0.60, the three-month average is at its lowest level since October 2009. The three-month average in May is revised lower to minus 0.31. Weakness in personal consumption & housing is weighing most heavily on the index followed by employment. Production & income is also a negative with sales, orders & inventories the only plus.

Of course any data from the “Fed” is suspect – period.

So, what will it be? Raise the limit, or not raise the limit? Does it matter? Are you tired of being manipulated yet? Are you tired of being threatened yet?

You know, my new mantra is simply to deny these criminals anything – no respect, no participation in their crimes, no money to fuel their Ponzi. Who to vote for in 2012? Who gives a rip as long as the central banks are financing both sides to create their central banker box? So, no vote from me, no money from me, just let me know when the people are ready to take back the power that is rightfully theirs.

You know all the bizarre violence over the weekend has got to leave you wondering… I believe the root of all that too is the impossible math and the pressure it creates on society. It is corrosive, it is the underlying cause of the decay in society’s moral fabric. This is why it’s very important not to feed this paradigm.