Saturday, December 3, 2011

Weekend Open Thread...



Weekend Funnies...



















Friday, December 2, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/2 - Snow Jobs Edition…

Good Morning,

Equity futures were higher overnight with still more rumors, dreams, and jawboning in Europe about creating another $270 billion from thin air and tossing it at the bankers. The headline Employment numbers for November came in with Private Payrolls supposedly creating 120,000 jobs (didn’t really happen), and the headline rate falling from 9.0% all the way to a Presidential touting prior to his re-election 8.6% (definitely didn’t really happen). And thus what we have is a white washed snow jobs report, and the dollar is lower, bonds are flat, oil is higher, gold & silver are higher, and food commodities are flat this morning as the real numbers of unemployed continue to pile up at the food banks.

It’s getting ridiculous how large the separation between these economic reports and reality is. It requires a huge amount of work time just to unspin them, and I’m an expert at doing so, just imagine how little effort the majority put into understanding these numbers. It’s subversive and perverse, it’s a part of the cover-up to maintain power and control by those who possess it. They possess that power and control because they unconstitutionally (illegally) were given the power to create money.

In a nutshell, the only reason the rate fell to 8.6% was because the BLS lowered the Participation Rate by more than 200,000 people, while those "not in the Labor Force" rose by a whopping 576,000! This has the effect of saying those people just aren’t interested in working, and therefore they are no longer counted as unemployed! More on this later, charts included, ugh.

First let’s hear from Econospin, note the reasons cited for the rate falling to 8.6%:
Highlights
The November jobs report overall came in with improvement, though there were mixed results. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped sharply. Payroll jobs in November advanced a relatively strong 120,000 after gaining a revised 100,000 in October (originally 80,000) and increased a revised 210,000 in September (previously 158,000). Analysts forecast a 131,000 boost in overall payrolls. Revisions for September and October were up net 70,000.

Once again, private payrolls gained more than overall. Private nonfarm payrolls gained 140,000, following a 117,000 increase in October and 220,000 rise in September. The November boost fell short of market expectations for a 150,000 increase.

In the private sector, goods-producing jobs slipped 6,000 after a 4,000 decrease in October and 36,000 boost in September. Construction jobs fell 12,000 in October after decreasing 15,000 the month before. Manufacturing employment edged up 2,000 after a 6,000 rise in October. Mining increased 2,000, following a 6,000 rise the prior month.

Private service-providing jobs advanced 146,000 in November, following a 121,000 gain the prior month. The November increase was led by trade & transportation (up 58,000), professional & business services (up 33,000), leisure & hospitality (up 22,000), health care (up 12,000). The temp help subcomponent of professional & business services rose 22,000 after a 16,000 gain.

The public sector continued to decline as government employment decreased 20,000, following a 17,000 drop in October.

Wage growth has been volatile recently as average hourly earnings in November slipped 0.1 percent, following an upwardly revised 0.3 percent gain the month before. Analysts predicted a 0.2 percent increase for November. On average, wage growth has been growing but at an anemic pace. Given the upward revision to October, the November dip should not been so disconcerting. Still, the uptrend is modest. The average workweek for all workers in November was unchanged at 34.3 hours, matching the market median forecast.

From the household survey, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 8.6 percent from 9.0 percent in October. The consensus forecast called for 9.0 percent. The rate decline reflected a 594,000 fall in the number of unemployed and a 278,000 increase in household employment. Basically, the unemployment rate fell largely due to a decline in the participation rate although household employment growth recently continues to exceed payroll jobs growth by a notable degree.

Overall, the latest employment report is favorable for the recovery continuing to gain traction. On the news, equity futures edged down as expectations were slightly stronger for payroll data and the unemployment rate dip was discounted.



“…the unemployment rate fell largely due to a decline in the participation rate.” That is the key line they buried in the middle, it is the entire reason for the drop.

Now, here’s the entire report from the BLS:

Employment Situation November 2011

Note the notes in this report, pay particular attention to the following:
Effective with the release of The Employment Situation for January 2012, scheduled for February 3, 2012, population controls that reflect the results of Census 2010 will be used in the monthly household survey estimation process. Historical data will not be revised to incorporate the new controls; consequently, household survey data for January 2012 will not be directly comparable with that for December 2011 or earlier periods. A table showing the effects of the new controls on the major labor force series will be included in the January 2012 release.

In other words, they are once again changing the way they report data and once again comparisons to the past will be meaningless. In other words, they are going to manipulate the data some more. Nice of them to warn us. But the truth is the data is so far from comparable already it is nothing but a sick joke – the difference now being a reported 8.6% unemployment rate versus the reality that is closer to 23%!!



Note in the Shadow Stats chart above how John William’s numbers that track how it used to be calculated are on an ascending path, while the current numbers from the BLS are on a descending path! There you have it, right there – the BLS has manipulated the numbers so badly they are simply false, a giant lie.

The Birth Death Model, as I expected, subtracted jobs as November is a corrective month for that ridiculous model. Thus it pulled numbers from the supposed job creation, that is one reason why the headline number missed as most people don’t account for this particular manipulation:



The Alternate Table is also affected by the Participation Rate, still U-6 is running 15.6%, a far cry from the advertised 8.6%!



Turning back to the Participation Rate, note how it has been falling since about 1999 (chart not updated with today’s figures which are lower):

Participation Rate:


Now let’s take a look at the number of people the BLS says are not in the Labor Force - this number swelled by a whopping 576,000 people in just this month alone (not reflected on chart below). It adds up to a whopping 28% of the total population, and you can see is growing at an ever increasing pace:

Not in Labor Force:


Now let’s look at the Mean Duration of Unemployment again. Tell me how it goes to historic highs while at the same time the Unemployment Rate is supposedly falling? One is lying, guess which one…

Mean Duration of Unemployment:


Now let’s take a look at something interesting… Below is a chart showing the number of Unemployed in thousands (blue), along with the advertised baloney Unemployment Rate. Note how prior to about 1975 they track one another pretty well, but since that time the gap between the two is getting wider and wider! Let’s just call that the Reality Gap! The numbers of unemployed are rising and hitting new highs while at the same time the advertised rate is not making new highs:

Reality Gap:


Now, who can tell me what is wrong with the following chart? In blue is the Mean Duration of Unemployment, and in red is the advertised Unemployment Rate. Note what’s been happening since 2010… at no time prior has there ever been a disconnect like that with the rate supposedly falling while at the same time the duration of unemployment is skyrocketing – again, which one is lying?

More Reality Gap:


The bottom line for me is that it is clear the data is being manipulated and that the separation between reality and the spin is growing wider. It’s my belief this is all a part of the tendency to hold onto power. Power emanates from the ability to create money – it is that power that gives the ability to write and to rewrite the current rule of law, regardless of whether that law conforms to our Constitution or to any semblance of a proper and natural rule of law.

Manipulation of the data at this point aims to ensure the status quo. Note the headline on CNN immediately following the release of this report: Jobless Rate Plummets!

I’m not sure that pointing out this disconnect is worth the effort at this point. I think the impossible math they’ve created is expressing itself now in a myriad of ways and they are obviously desperate and taking desperate actions to hold onto that power. These are all a part of the “other events” that I’ve been talking about for years. More are on the way, it’s far from over, and 8.6% is nothing but a huge lie…

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 12/1 - Acts of Desperation Edition…

Good Morning,

Stocks are slightly down to about even after yesterday’s ridiculous money bomb. The dollar is lower, bonds are lower, oil is slightly higher, gold & silver slightly lower, and food commodities are slightly higher.

What happened yesterday was most definitely a desperate act designed to keep the impossible math from collapsing in upon itself. Debt saturation has completely brought the European financial system to a stand still. There is no “solution” in Europe within the central banker’s false paradigm, and thus the United States central bankers took it upon themselves to issue massive quantities more of money to lend to the European banks – just what they need, more debt.

To me it’s literally insane - both the actions of the central banks, and of the people for allowing them to continue destroying currencies, economies, and lives. It’s a black eye for humanity, and it will accomplish exactly nothing in the end. In fact, more debt only makes the debt saturated condition worse, it is certainly no cure. Witness the fact that on the same day this “liquidity” pump sent equities soaring, yields in the Eurozone also rose.

Remember how I called B.S. to the “Black Friday” hype? Hype it was, here is all Econocomplicit could muster to describe chain store sales for November:
Highlights
Today's chain-store results do not confirm the enormous strength of anecdotal reports for the Black Friday weekend. Almost as many chains are posting softer results for November than they did for October with most reporting little difference. Following their November results, chains are holding to guidance which on the whole point to steady rates of moderate year-on-year growth through the holidays.

Can you believe the hype in the media and in the markets? Compare that to this. Is the media even reporting this? Wow, are we a dumb money fluff society or what.

I have a pretty good nose to sniff out bullshit, and I’m stating for the record that much of the recent supposedly good economic data has that odor of manipulation about it. The markets certainly are manipulated, all of them, none are real.

Watch the VIX today, it is currently below the bottom Bollinger band. If it closes here then a market sell signal will be set up for the future.

For those that didn’t see it, a sitting Congressman, Dennis Kucinich, created a video clearly stating the criminality of the “Fed.” Yes, Congress has the power to end this problem immediately – they have the power granted to them by the Constitution to end it. Will they? I don’t think so – too many are corrupted by their money from nothing:


The “Needs Bill,” while not as complete nor as correct as Freedom’s Vision, would represent a huge step in the right direction, but it will take millions of people demanding something like that for it to happen. My instinct is telling me that the coming massive “other events” have to play out first – sadly. Still, this video is remarkable in that we now have a few sitting Congressmen openly calling out the "Fed" as the root cause of the problem.

Initial Jobless Claims are once again over 400k, but it is the 350k mark that delineates the point below which real jobs are created. Numbers above that reflect an economy that is still shedding jobs:
Highlights
The shortened Thanksgiving November 26 week clouds a 6,000 rise in initial jobless claims to 402,000. This ends three straight weeks under 400,000 and compares with Econoday expectations for 391,000 and against a 396,000 level in the prior week (revised from 393,000). The four-week average, which helps smooth out distortions in any one week, shows its first increase in five weeks, up a marginal 500 to 395,750 (prior week revised to 395,250).

Continuing claims in data for the November 19 week rose 35,000 to 3.740 million which is the highest level in two months. The four-week average is up 12,000 to 3.683 million. The unemployment rate for insured workers, resting at 2.9 percent in the prior five weeks, is up one tenth to 3.0 percent.

The Labor Department reports no special factors in the latest data but the shortened week for the initial claims period is likely to blunt market reaction. Demand for the safety of Treasuries is increasing very slightly immediately following the data.



Along the lines of bullshit, remember I am also calling it to the recent huge jump in Consumer Confidence. And not but a couple days later an independent source, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, shows deterioration in Consumer Comfort. Did Consumer Confidence really jump, or was it a manufactured statistic? I say it was manufactured:
Highlights
Consumer confidence in the U.S. was little changed last week from levels typically reached during past recessions. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index was minus 50.2 in the period ended November 27, after minus 50.1 the prior week. The gauge has been at minus 50 or worse for 10 of the past 11 weeks.

Two of the three components of the weekly comfort index deteriorated. The measure of Americans' views of the current state of the economy worsened to minus 88.5 last week from minus 87.2 in the prior period. The buying climate index fell to minus 49.4 from minus 48.8. The gauge of personal finances improved to minus 12.7, from minus 14.3.

The simultaneous injection of global liquidity (money), combined with the manufacturing of false statistics, and with the manufacturing of retail sales media hype, leads me to believe that a full court press was ordered to accomplish some political purpose (elections upcoming). While the President doesn’t control the “Fed” (it is the other way around), the central bankers may like their easily manipulated teleprompter reading empty suit puppet, and thus are working to keep him there. Yes, that is conspiracy theory for now, but the pieces of facts are pointing me in that direction.

The Manufacturing ISM rose for November. This was expected by me since it counts the dollar value of orders placed and Boeing received huge orders last month. Again, it is a point of national embarrassment that our manufacturing base is so small that a few aircraft orders swings these reports – of course you won’t hear that from Econocheerleader:
Highlights
ISM new orders are turning higher in what is very good news for the manufacturing sector. The new orders index for November is up a very strong 4.3 points to 56.7, above 50 to indicate monthly growth and well above October. This index had been stuck at slightly sub-50 levels in prior months which now are forgotten. Helped by new orders, the ISM composite index is up 1.2 points to a 52.7 level that compares with the Econoday consensus for 51.5. November's level is the best since June.

Details show acceleration for export orders and for production. Delivery times are little changed while input prices slipped for a second month. Backlog orders are going down which is a negative that will hopefully be offset by the rise in new orders. Another disappointment is employment where hiring slowed, here too a factor that will hopefully reverse. Inventory readings are stable.

The stock market is getting a lift from today's report which hints at building strength and renewed leadership in manufacturing.

Renewed leadership in manufacturing? Wow, the manure is getting deep.

Construction Spending rose .8% in October, from my perspective just another measure of inflation as this is another metric measured in dollars. Just picture that chart of M1 and its parabolic rise, and you will see right through this statistic:
Highlights
It may not be a lot (coming from a low base) but it is starting to look like the construction sector is incrementally adding to overall economic growth. Construction spending in October advanced 0.8 percent after rising an unrevised 0.2 percent in September. Analysts had forecast a 0.3 percent boost for October.

The October increase was led by a 3.4 percent boost in private residential outlays, following a 0.6 percent rise in September. Private nonresidential construction spending also posted a gain, rising 1.3 percent, following a 0.1 percent dip the month before. Public outlays declined 1.8 percent after a 0.3 percent increase the prior month.

On a year-ago basis, overall construction outlays improved to down 0.4 percent in October from down 0.6 percent in September.

Construction outlays have risen three months in a row and in six of the last seven months. The level of activity is still subdued but it now appears to be growing and adding to overall economic growth. It is not an "engine" like manufacturing but it is in better shape than even less than a year ago.

Year over year figures are down while money production figures are way higher. That means that in real terms Construction is WAY down.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/30

Good Morning,

Futures are zooming on announcements of multiple rivers of “liquidity” (money) being pumped all over the world. The DOW is now nearly 500 points above its overnight low, below is a 5 minute chart:



I guess they need that “liquidity” because this just isn’t enough:

M1:

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The Federal Reserve, acting with five other central banks, took further steps Wednesday to make it cheaper for banks around the world to trade in U.S. dollars.

The Fed -- along with central banks of the eurozone, England, Japan, Switzerland and Canada -- announced a coordinated plan to lower prices on dollar liquidity swaps beginning on December 5, and extending these swap arrangements to February 1, 2013.

Meanwhile, the People's Bank of China also announced a plan to increase liquidity Wednesday by lowering its reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by half a percentage point.

And thus the effects of the impossible math once again exert themselves, and it is the reaction to those deflationary forces that causes bankers and politicians to kill their own currency via their satanic desire to create inflation.

Sure, try “investing” this type of “market.” And just who knew this was coming over the weekend? Graft and fraud is all I see, Hank Paulson is probably still spreading inside information. If you haven’t seen the latest that exposes yet another illegal operation by our former Treasury Secretary, then please see this complete breakdown of the rule of law and then imagine “investing” against these criminals: How Paulson Gave Hedge Funds Advance Word.

The dollar, of course, is tanking – that is the plan, that everything you need cost more and thus you are taxed with every dollar earned and then spent. Bonds are down sharply too, oil is of course zooming, gold & silver are zooming (trade of the decade), while food commodities appear determined to choke life from the masses.

In other news, the Occupy movement is raided by police on both coasts at exactly the same time showing how the police are now coordinating against the protests. From my perspective the police are acting on behalf of those who finance them, not the public – thus our nation is truly dividing itself into a classic good versus evil battle – again, I implore you to evaluate your own actions and make sure they are supporting the right side of the battle.

Yesterday it was reported that Consumer Confidence suddenly jumped to its highest point since 2003, this coming from just above its all-time low? Hmmm… I smell something funny. Did “Consumers” really all of the sudden feel good about the economy with Europe imploding, the stock market languishing, protests across the country (and around the globe), their home prices plummeting, and a depression era job market? Sure, but remember, I no longer consent to the lies, so I don’t have to believe it and in fact don’t.

The Hypocritical Mortgage Banker’s Association, who I hear is now threatening legal action against people who recast their “data,” report the following manipulate you proprietary data which I happily recast as a snippet of reporting from Econocomplicit:
Highlights
Thanksgiving is clouding weekly mortgage application readings with purchase applications down 0.8 percent and refinancing applications down 15.3 percent in the November 25 week. A look at four-week averages, which helps limit single-week distortions, shows the purchase index up 2.4 percent to offer another signal of momentum in the housing market. The four-week average for the refinancing index is down 4.9 percent.

Bargain home prices are helping to lift home sales as are low interest rates with 30-year conforming loans ($417,500 or less) averaging 4.21 percent for a two basis point decline from the prior week. Jumbo 30-year loans ($417,500 and more) averaged 4.55 percent for a four basis point decline. Thirty-year fixed mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Agency fell five basis points to 4.00 percent for their lowest rate since January. Pending home sales data, which will offer a look at contract signings for existing home sales, will be posted at 10:00 a.m. ET today.

Honestly, this data is so corrupt I don’t know why anyone would report it – it should be illegal for private interests to report statistics on their own industry as self-interest reporting in this manner causes economic misallocation that can, and has, damaged everyone in the nation.

The Challenger Job-Cut report was basically level from last month:
Highlights
Layoff announcements are little changed this month at 42,474 vs 42,759 in October and 48,711 in November last year. Government has been a heavy sector for layoffs this year as it is once again this month, at more than 18,500 with 13,500 of the cuts hitting civilians in the Air Force. Food, retail, and computer round out the month's next three hardest hit sectors. Layoffs in the financial sector have been mild the past two months but the report warns that contagion tied to the European financial crisis is putting US jobs in this sector at risk.

ADP, which is notorious for moving the market ahead of the Jobs Report, basically doubled the estimated “job creation” from 110k to 206k – this is way above the 125k consensus:
Highlights
ADP estimates private payrolls rose 206,000 in November vs a revised 130,000 rise in October.
I’m willing to bet this is higher than what the Jobs Report will come up with because November is one of the months in which they do a subtraction with their phony “birth/death” model.

While we’re speaking of phony, “Productivity” and Costs were released with “productivity” revised downward along with GDP. Remember, the only thing we produce is money, aka “liquidity,” the rest is mostly baloney because we measure our “productivity” in dollars, and just look at the M1 chart at the top of the page, that is all you need to know:
Highlights
Somewhat in line with the downward revision to third quarter GDP growth, productivity for the same period was revised down to a 2.3 percent rise, compared to the initial estimate of 3.1 percent and a 0.1 percent dip in the second quarter. Analysts had forecast a 2.6 percent increase for the revised number. The output component was revised down to a gain of 3.2 percent from the original 3.8 percent. Hours worked were nudged up to a 0.8 percent annualized increased from the original 0.6 percent.

Unit labor costs were revised to an annualized 2.5 percent decrease, compared to the first estimate of a 2.4 percent drop. The market median forecast was for a 2.3 percent decrease.

Compensation was softer than earlier estimated-down 0.2 percent versus up an annualized 0.6 percent.

Year-on-year, productivity was up 0.9 percent in the third quarter-matching the rate in the second quarter. Year-ago unit labor costs came in at up 0.4 percent in the second quarter, compared to a rise of 1.0 percent in the prior period.

Despite the mixed revisions (some favorable, some not), the latest productivity report is still favorable toward a continuation of growth in corporate profits with output up and labor costs down.

On the news, equity futures were up strongly but on favorable news out of Europe and on a better-than-expected ADP private employment report

Uh huh, if you remember, I raised the B.S. flag on the Compensation numbers when this was last reported. Now they are reporting that instead of the +.6% gain that it turned into a -.2% loss… and that is with their trumped up measurements that are completely not real. I can guarantee you the 70,000 employees at bankrupt American Airlines are about to lose far more than .2% of their wages while at the same time the true evil doers are flooding the world with “liquidity.” Track that… “liquidity” into the hands of the bankers, wages falling means none of it is falling into the hands of the 99% because the 1% use it to commit fraud upon the masses – that is the game afoot, which side are you on?

Meanwhile, and almost as if coordinated (cough, cough), the “Fed” in the Chicago area says that its index rose from 58.4 to 62.6:
Highlights
The pace of activity in the Chicago area has picked up this month with the business barometer at 62.6, far above 50 to indicate monthly growth and well above October's 58.4 to indicate an acceleration in monthly growth. Leading indications in the report show significant monthly acceleration led by a nearly nine point surge in new orders to 70.2 together with a nearly four point gain for backlog orders to 55.1. The new orders index is showing is fastest rate of monthly growth since March with backlogs showing their fastest rate of build since April.

Other indications are mostly positive with production particularly strong at 67.3 for a nearly four point gain while deliveries slowed further in another indication of strength. The report's sample, which includes both manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms in the area, added to their workforces in the month but at a slower rate, at 56.9 vs 62.3 in October which was a six month high. Input prices continued to increase but at a slightly slower rate.

The stock market, moving to session highs, appears to be getting a slight boost from today's report which points to strength for both the ISM's manufacturing survey on Thursday and the ISM's non-manufacturing survey on Monday.

LOL, so quaint… they credit this phony data for moving the stock market, guess they didn’t get the liquidity bomb memo yet.

And on coordinated queue, Pending Home Sales supposedly jumped (LOL) from 84.5 all the way to 93.3!! In the month of October! LOL Wow, talk about coordinated baloney – I guess President Obama must have sent the memo to make him look good.

Again the disconnect between reality and the spin of their fantastic lies grow larger. The math is clearly exponential, thus the flood of liquidity is required to keep the rivers flowing. None of it will find its way into the working class’s pockets, the rule of law for them is dividing itself sharper against the rule of law they apply to everyone else. So sad, the revolution is still brewing.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/29 - “Outlook Negative” Edition…

Good Morning,

Equity futures are slightly higher this morning, with the dollar down slightly, bonds down slightly, oil higher, gold & silver lower, and food commodities roughly flat.

American Airlines, formerly the world’s largest airline, filed for bankruptcy this morning, their stock plummeting to 6 cents a share. They claim nothing will change operationally, that they will operate their flights and that they will continue purchasing the 480 new airplanes they ordered this July. Primarily it’s all about “restructuring.” What does that mean? It means they made too many promises to their debtors and to their employees and they are going to use this filing to primarily take it out on their employees because the bankruptcy laws in this nation strongly favor capital over people. This means that retirement plans will be vulnerable, wages will fall (while costs rise), and yet the company will still get their shiny new planes.

Fitch, one of the rating agencies that never takes action until well after the fact, finally put the United States on “outlook negative” from “stable” regarding its phony triple-A rating. Hmmm… current account deficit is 100% of trumped up GDP and they still affirm triple-A and finally produce an “outlook negative” because the “Super Committee” couldn’t tackle the impossible math?

Guess what, it’s FAR, FAR, worse than that. In the first place our GDP is vastly overstated – I say 40% or more. But primarily I say “WTF, over” to this deceive you metric in the first place, and I ask what in the world does a nation’s supposed “productivity” have to do with a nation’s debt?

Comparing those two things is exactly like comparing your personal debts to the productivity of your neighborhood! Who gives a damn? And what does that have to do with anything? Remember, we are no longer consenting to the lies!

The only thing that matters in regard to debt is the ability to service it, and that requires income, not productivity! The United States trumped up debt figure is $15 Trillion, but it only takes in $2.7 trillion in income, thus debt is 555%, or 5.55 times income! Now, if you include the debts at Freddie and Fannie, and all the other off balance sheet debt, our true national debt is more like 37 times our national income!

Dividing our Current National Income by our Current National Debt produces a chart with the following trajectory:

Current National Income Divided by Current National Debt:


Yep, outlook negative all right. And doesn’t that chart have the same ring to it as the diminishing returns charts I’ve been showing? Yep, same trajectory, that’s because our money is debt.

Meanwhile, the largest “asset” held by the 99%, their house, continues to slide in value. The latest Case-Shiller data shows that home prices fell another .6% in the month of September:
Highlights
Evidence is building fast that home prices are falling into deepening contraction, the likely result of distressed sales tied to foreclosures. Case-Shiller data for September show a very heavy 0.6 percent monthly decline for the both adjusted and unadjusted 20-city indexes. These are three-month averages which indicate an especially severe decline for September alone. In a mild offset, contraction in year-on-year rates moderated slightly to minus 3.6 percent, again for both the adjusted and unadjusted 20-city indexes.

Home prices in Atlanta appear to be plunging, down a monthly adjusted 4.1 percent in September -- again, this is not a year-on-year reading. The decline follows monthly drops in Atlanta of 3.0 percent in August and 1.1 percent in July. Atlanta, together with Phoenix and Las Vegas, are posting new crisis lows though the report is confident that for the nation as a whole, the price collapse of 2007 through 2009 will not be repeated.

Falling home prices are a heavy load on home owners, preventing some from selling their homes and forcing some into financial distress. One upside, as seen in recent data on new and existing homes, is that lower prices, together with extremely low interest rates, are giving a very welcome boost to sales. At 10:00 a.m. ET this morning, the Federal Housing Financing Agency will post its home-price data.

Heck, my home’s assessed value fell 10% year over year, and I have no doubt that’s very close to the market reality.

Below is the entire Case-Shiller report:

Case-Shiller Q3 Data

Consumer Confidence as well as the FHFA Home Price data are released shortly and will be reported inside of today’s Open Thread.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.

Monday, November 28, 2011

Morning Update/ Market Thread 11/28 - Tales Keep on Rollin’ Edition…

Good Morning,

I call baloney on the supposed Black Friday Retail Sales party, ditto with the continuing rumor mill regarding Europe – to call both “tales” is the understatement of the year. Equity futures gapped up huge and are now more than 400 points higher than Friday’s low. The dollar is sharply lower, bonds sharply lower, oil higher, gold & silver higher, and food commodities higher as well.

Watching the “news” this weekend looked like nothing but a giant cheerleading advertisement for “black Friday” shopping. The completely biased National Retail Federation released a survey on Sunday saying that “Major retailers reported record sales of $52.4 billion over Black Friday weekend -- up 16% from last year.”

To which, I can only call major league bullshit to go along with a giant gaffaahaha. These self-interested clowns are very similar to the jokers who run the MBA (Mortgage Banker’s Association), in that they compile false and exaggerated reports in order to manipulate people’s perception of the market from which they derive their living – and to which the media also depend upon promoting.

No person in their right mind would believe for a second that retail sales actually rose 16% in just one year, anytime you see numbers that large, you should immediately think of Bernie Madoff and your scam detecting radar should begin screaming at you. First of all, if we go back and look at prior years, this scam is the same scam the NRF runs every year, and after their wild releases meant to create a shopping frenzy, reality is never what they proclaim. Secondly, this was a survey. Surveys are notoriously inaccurate, and they don’t survey the businesses that have failed in the past year! Also, sales are measured in dollars, not units, thus the outrageous production of money creates inflation – inflation does not equal growth in sales, it equals growth in money production!

M1:


M1 Percent Change from a Year Ago:


Hmmm… notice that M1 is up about 17% from a year ago, not too far from that Black Friday Sales Figure, no? Truth is that a number like that should scare the heck out of you, ditto with what used to be our free markets.

Now let's look at the other measurements of money from the "Fed," all expressed in percent change from a year ago:

Base Money 35% Change from a year ago!


M2 10% Change from a year ago:


MZM 9% Change from a year ago:


Speaking of money(ness), the BIS (Bank of International Settlement) reported that in just half a year the notional value of derivatives in the United States jumped by $107 trillion to $707 Trillion! That's a six month increase of 17.8%! Again, simply unbelievable! In this case, I believe the value of derivatives to be understated and I don't think the BIS or any group has a real handle on just how much money(ness) there is out there. Thus it seems out of control because it is out of control. Of course the failure of MF Global may be the first derivatives domino to topple...

Now do we really need to talk about Europe again? Same old stuff. Impossible math, debt saturated nations, corrupt bankers creating rumors about grand bailout schemes all of which simply make more debt money from nothing to imprison countries already in debt way over their heads. Any such solution will only translate into inflation, the Germans are right to be scared of it. The only solutions that will actually work are solutions that include shrinking the amount of debt – the exact opposite of what bankers would like.

And to think that the same narcissists who got the world into this mess will lead us out of it, is simply insane.
"We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them."
- Albert Einstein

A lot of data this week, the highlight being the Employment Situation report for November released this Friday. This morning is New Home Sales and the Dallas Fed Survey, both will be reported inside of today’s Daily Thread.

I, Nathan Martin, no longer consent to the lies.